Regional Imprints of Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Eddy-rich Ocean Model VIKING20X

A hierarchy of global 1/4° (ORCA025) and Atlantic Ocean 1/20° nested (VIKING20X) ocean/sea-ice models is described. It is shown that the eddy-rich configurations performed in hindcasts of the past 50–60 years under CORE and JRA55-do atmospheric forcings realistically simulate the large-scale horizontal circulation, the distribution of the mesoscale, overflow and convective processes, and the representation of regional current systems in the North and South Atlantic. The representation, and in particular the long-term temporal evolution, of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strongly depends on numerical choices for the application of freshwater fluxes. The interannual variability of the AMOC instead is highly correlated among the model experiments and also with observations, including the 2010 minimum observed by RAPID at 26.5° N pointing at a dominant role of the forcing. Regional observations in western boundary current systems at 53° N, 26.5° N and 11° S are explored in respect to their ability to represent the AMOC and to monitor the temporal evolution of the AMOC. Apart from the basin-scale measurements at 26.5° N, it is shown that in particular the outflow of North Atlantic Deepwater at 53° N is a good indicator of the subpolar AMOC trend during the recent decades, if the latter is provided in density coordinates. The good reproduction of observed AMOC and WBC trends in the most reasonable simulations indicate that the eddy-rich VIKING20X is capable in representing realistic forcing-related and ocean-intrinsic trends

Alpha-decay properties of superheavy elements Z=113−125Z=113-125 in the relativistic mean-field theory with vector self-coupling of ω\omega meson

We have investigated properties of $\alpha$-decay chains of recently produced superheavy elements Z=115 and Z=113 using the new Lagrangian model NL-SV1 with inclusion of the vector self-coupling of $\omega$ meson in the framework of the relativistic mean-field theory. It is shown that the experimentally observed alpha-decay energies and half-lives are reproduced well by this Lagrangian model. Further calculations for the heavier elements with Z=117-125 show that these nuclei are superdeformed with a prolate shape in the ground state. A superdeformed shell-closure at Z=118 lends an additional binding and an extra stability to nuclei in this region. Consequently, it is predicted that the corresponding $Q_\alpha$ values provide $\alpha$-decay half-lives for heavier superheavy nuclei within the experimentally feasible conditions. The results are compared with those of macroscopic-microscopic approaches. A perspective of the difference in shell effects amongst various approaches is presented and its consequences on superheavy nuclei are discussed.Comment: Revised version, 14 pages, 12 eps figures. To appear in PRC. Discussion on shell effects is shortened in the revised version. However, commonality of the role of shell effects in extreme superheavy regions and in the regions near the r-process path is maintained. Existence of a secondary superdeformed minimum for Z=113 is verified with another Lagrangian se

Model simulations on the long-term dispersal of 137Cs released into the Pacific Ocean off Fukushima

A sequence of global ocean circulation models, with horizontal mesh sizes of 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.1°, are used to estimate the long-term dispersion by ocean currents and mesoscale eddies of a slowly decaying tracer (half-life of 30 years, comparable to that of 137Cs) from the local waters off the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plants. The tracer was continuously injected into the coastal waters over some weeks; its subsequent spreading and dilution in the Pacific Ocean was then simulated for 10 years. The simulations do not include any data assimilation, and thus, do not account for the actual state of the local ocean currents during the release of highly contaminated water from the damaged plants in March–April 2011. An ensemble differing in initial current distributions illustrates their importance for the tracer patterns evolving during the first months, but suggests a minor relevance for the large-scale tracer distributions after 2–3 years. By then the tracer cloud has penetrated to depths of more than 400 m, spanning the western and central North Pacific between 25°N and 55°N, leading to a rapid dilution of concentrations. The rate of dilution declines in the following years, while the main tracer patch propagates eastward across the Pacific Ocean, reaching the coastal waters of North America after about 5–6 years. Tentatively assuming a value of 10 PBq for the net 137Cs input during the first weeks after the Fukushima incident, the simulation suggests a rapid dilution of peak radioactivity values to about 10 Bq m−3 during the first two years, followed by a gradual decline to 1–2 Bq m−3 over the next 4–7 years. The total peak radioactivity levels would then still be about twice the pre-Fukushima values

Global ocean modeling and state estimation in support of climate research

During the last decade it has become obvious that the ocean circulation shows vigorous variability on a wide range of time and space scales and that the concept of a "sluggish" and slowly varying circulation is rather elusive. Increasing emphasis has to be put, therefore, on observing the rapidly changing ocean state on time scales ranging from weeks to decades and beyond, and on understanding the ocean's response to changing atmospheric forcing conditions. As outlined in various strategy and implementation documents (e.g., the implementation plans of WOCE, AMS, CLIVAR, and GODAE) a combination of the global ocean data sets with a state-of-the-art numerical circulation model is required to interpret the various diverse data sets and to produce the best possible estimates of the time-varying ocean circulation. The mechanism of ocean state estimates is a powerful tool for such a "synthesis" of observations, obtained on very complex space-time pattern, into one dynamically consistent picture of the global time-evolving ocean circulation. This process has much in common with ongoing analysis and reanalysis activities in the atmospheric community. But because the ocean is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, substantially under-sampled, the burden put on the modeling and estimations components is substantially larger than in the atmosphere. Moreover, the smaller dynamical eddy scales which need to be properly parameterized or resolved in ocean model simulations, put stringent requirements on computational resources for ongoing and participated climate research

Sensitivity of Southern Ocean overturning to wind stress changes:Role of surface restoring time scales

The influence of different surface restoring time scales on the response of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation to wind stress changes is investigated using an idealised channel model. Regardless of the restoring time scales chosen, the eddy-induced meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is found to compensate for changes of the direct wind-driven Eulerian-mean MOC, rendering the residual MOC less sensitive to wind stress changes. However, the extent of this compensation depends strongly on the restoring time scale: residual MOC sensitivity increases with decreasing restoring time scale. Strong surface restoring is shown to limit the ability of the eddy-induced MOC to change in response to wind stress changes and as such suppresses the eddy compensation effect. These model results are consistent with qualitative arguments derived fromresidual-mean theory andmay have important implications for interpreting past and future observations