Productive Structure in the Neo-Kaleckian Model of Growth and Distribution: Simulations to the Brazilian Economy

This chapter has as its main objective to analyze the relationship between structural change, exchange rate devaluation, growth and income distribution in Brazil. The neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution as designed by Cimoli et al. (2016) is simulated to the short run, where there are no restrictions to deficits on the balance of payments. This is a post-Keynesian model with Schumpeterian and Latin American structuralist ideas. The shocks in the model are made in order to understand impacts of structural change, wage level increases, and exchange rate devaluations in the Brazilian economy. To accomplish these objectives, the model is calibrated in this chapter using real data for 2011. The results indicate the dynamics of the neo-Kaleckian model and lead to an analysis of possible impacts of changes in the productive sector on growth and income distribution in Brazil

The Rise and Fall of Export-Led Growth

This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth. Globalization has so diversified global economic activity that no country or region can act as the lone locomotive of global growth. Political reasoning suggests that EM countries are not likely to abandon export-led growth, nor will the international community implement the international arrangements needed for successful domestic demand-led growth. Consequently, the global economy likely faces asymmetric stagnation

Association of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World: The Role of Trade

This paper explores the impact of past and future growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)1 Since the mid-1990s, ACI growth has improved the non-oil terms of trade of the developed countries. There have also been strong complementarities between ACI suppliers of intermediate inputs and PRC exports. More developed Asian countries have benefited from PRC capital goods demand. ACI growth has, however, put competitive pressures on other less-developed manufacturing exporters, worsening their terms of trade and constraining their pricing ability. ACI growth has been especially beneficial for oil and minerals commodity producers. On the other hand, net food importers and oil importing countries have been adversely affected by high import costs. , the People's Republic of China (PRC), and India - here referred to as the ACI countries - on aggregate welfare, relative wages, and global emissions in the rest of the world. It outlines several analytical frameworks, considers effects over the past decade and, based on consensus forecasts, the implications of that growth for the rest of the world in the decades to come. Future ACI growth provides opportunities and challenges for the rest of the world. For developed countries the opportunities are for selling high-end services and capital and consumer goods in the ACI markets and enjoying the benefits from intra-industry trade; the challenges will come from increased head-to-head competition in manufactured goods and services that should become more intense in future decades. For medium-income producers currently at between 30% and 60% of US levels, there will be a tougher tradeoff between more intensive competition with the PRC and serving the growing middle classes in ACI countries. For poorer countries, there will greater opportunities for becoming part of global supply chains in manufactured exports. Standard frameworks that assume internal factor mobility suggest continuing pressures for wage inequality in developed countries. But these hinge on the assumption that the ACI and developed countries will continue to produce similar products and that the ACI will specialize in unskilled labor-intensive products. In fact, as their exports become more technology - intensive and developed countries more specialized these pressures could be alleviated. On the one hand, as the "flying geese" process continues, exports from countries with lower incomes than the PRC are likely to displace PRC labor-intensive exports rather than domestic production in developed countries. On the other hand, while it may cause job loss and erode the returns to specific factors, PRC export growth is less likely to be a source of wage inequality in advanced economies

Clinical Implications of Referral Bias in the Diagnostic Performance of Exercise Testing for Coronary Artery Disease

BackgroundExercise testing with echocardiography or myocardial perfusion imaging is widely used to risk‐stratify patients with suspected coronary artery disease. However, reports of diagnostic performance rarely adjust for referral bias, and this practice may adversely influence patient care. Therefore, we evaluated the potential impact of referral bias on diagnostic effectiveness and clinical decision‐making.Methods and ResultsSearching PubMed and EMBASE (1990–2012), 2 investigators independently evaluated eligibility and abstracted data on study characteristics and referral patterns. Diagnostic performance reported in 4 previously published meta‐analyses of exercise echocardiography and myocardial perfusion imaging was adjusted using pooled referral rates and Bayesian methods. Twenty‐one studies reported referral patterns in 49 006 patients (mean age 60.7 years, 39.6% women, and 0.8% prior history of myocardial infarction). Catheterization referral rates after normal and abnormal exercise tests were 4.0% (95% CI, 2.9% to 5.0%) and 42.5% (36.2% to 48.9%), respectively, with odds ratio for referral after an abnormal test of 14.6 (10.7 to 19.9). After adjustment for referral, exercise echocardiography sensitivity fell from 84% (80% to 89%) to 34% (27% to 41%), and specificity rose from 77% (69% to 86%) to 99% (99% to 100%). Similarly, exercise myocardial perfusion imaging sensitivity fell from 85% (81% to 88%) to 38% (31% to 44%), and specificity rose from 69% (61% to 78%) to 99% (99% to 100%). Summary receiver operating curve analysis demonstrated only modest changes in overall discriminatory power but adjusting for referral increased positive‐predictive value and reduced negative‐predictive value.ConclusionsExercise echocardiography and myocardial perfusion imaging are considerably less sensitive and more specific for coronary artery disease after adjustment for referral. Given these findings, future work should assess the comparative ability of these and other tests to rule‐in versus rule‐out coronary artery disease

Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: a comprehensive empirical analysis

This study investigates various economic factors’ impact in determining the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand from both a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. We base our analysis on a demand‐driven growth model for an open economy that allows for either profit‐led or wage‐led regimes. Our results strongly indicate that a higher level of trade openness is associated with a lower probability of being wage‐led. We find evidence that lower wage inequality makes an economy more wage‐led and that countries with a greater private credit‐to‐gross domestic product (GDP) ratio are more likely to be profit‐led

New insights from a structural economic dynamic approach to balance of payments constrained growth

In this paper it is shown that once-for-all variations in the level of the exchange rate may play an important role in the sectoral composition of the economy and this fact has important implications in terms of a disaggregated version of the Thirlwall’s law even if the argument of the quantitative unimportance of relative price movements holds. The growth rate of a country is then shown to be affected by once-for-all movements in the level of nominal exchange rates and the concept of a natural exchange rate is introduced