What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?

This paper endeavours to provide a comprehensive analysis of the nature and the possible importance of “global excess liquidity”, a concept which has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we present some conceptual discussion on the meaning of excess liquidity in advanced countries with developed financial markets. Second, we report some descriptive analysis on the degree of co-movement of several possible measures of excess liquidity and spill-overs between them for a relatively large sample of industrialised and developing countries. Third, we estimate a VAR model for an aggregate of the major industrialised countries and analyse the transmission of shocks to global excess liquidity to the global economy, including possible cross-border spill-over effects to a number of domestic variables in the world’s three largest economies (the US, the euro area and Japan). JEL Classification: E52, F42Global excess liquidity, international economics, monetary policy, open economy

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia

Against the background of the rapid inter- and intraregional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate various specifications of a dynamic common factor model for output growth of ten East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised countries. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. Cross-country spill-over effects explain only a small part of the comovement in the region. More importantly, a number of exogenous factors, such as the price of oil and the JPY-USD exchange rate, play an important role in synchronising activity. In addition, economic linkages with Europe and North America may also have contributed to the observed synchronisation. JEL Classification: E30, F00business cycles synchronisation, dynamic factor model, East Asia

Leading indicators in a globalised world

Using OECD composite leading indicators (CLI), we assess empirically whether the ability of the country- specific CLIs to predict economic activity has diminished in recent years, e.g. due to rapid advances in globalisation. Overall, we find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information for forecasting industrial production, particularly over horizons of four to eight months ahead. The evidence is particularly strong when taking cointegration relationships into account. At the same time, we find indications that the forecast accuracy has declined over time for several countries. Augmenting the country-specific CLI with a leading indicator of the external environment and employing forecast combination techniques improves the forecast performance for several economies. Over time, the increasing importance of international dependencies is documented by relative performance gains of the extended model for selected countries. JEL Classification: C53, E32, E37, F47business cycle, forecast comparison, Globalisation, Leading Indicator, Structural change

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia

Against the background of the rapid inter- and intraregional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate various specifications of a dynamic common factor model for output growth of ten East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised countries. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. Cross-country spill-over effects explain only a small part of the comovement in the region. More importantly, a number of exogenous factors, such as the price of oil and the JPY-USD exchange rate, play an important role in synchronising activity. In addition, economic linkages with Europe and North America may also have contributed to the observed synchronisation

What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?

This paper endeavours to provide a comprehensive analysis of the nature and the possible importance of “global excess liquidity”, a concept which has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we present some conceptual discussion on the meaning of excess liquidity in advanced countries with developed financial markets. Second, we report some descriptive analysis on the degree of co-movement of several possible measures of excess liquidity and spill-overs between them for a relatively large sample of industrialised and developing countries. Third, we estimate a VAR model for an aggregate of the major industrialised countries and analyse the transmission of shocks to global excess liquidity to the global economy, including possible cross-border spill-over effects to a number of domestic variables in the world’s three largest economies (the US, the euro area and Japan)

Emerging Asia’s growth and integration: how autonomous are business cycles?

Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten countries over the period 1979Q1- 2003Q4, controlling for external factors, and use sign restrictions to identify structural domestic shocks. Variance decompositions indicate that Asian emerging economies are to a large part driven by external developments, and even more so employing a more recent sample. We analyse to what extent structural domestic shocks exhibit a regional dimension by comparing shocks across countries using correlation and principal component analysis. The extent of regional co-movement between structural shocks is relatively limited. While the principal components analysis indicates a moderate increase in co-movement over time, the correlation analysis finds a decline. This may reflect a broadening of regional integration at the expense of bilateral economic ties. JEL Classification: F15, F02, F41Economic integration, International Business Cycles, sign restrictions, structural shocks

The rise of the yen vis--vis the ("synthetic") euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?

This paper examines the long-run determinants of the euro-yen exchange rate. Using cointegration analysis, we find a consistent and significant relationship between the real exchange rate and relative productivity, the net foreign asset position, relative government spending and terms of trade shocks, as well as a fairly rapid mean reversion of the exchange rate to its equilibrium. The "equilibrium" rate tracks the trends in the actual exchange rate quite well, accounting for a large part of the yen appreciation from the mid-1970s to 2001. Our findings suggest that the euro appreciation against the yen in 2001 represented an equilibrium correction of its previous depreciation. Moreover, the width of the error bands highlights the difficulties arising when attempting to determine the precise equilibrium value of a currency

The changing role of the exchange rate in a globalised economy

In addition to its direct effects on the global trading and production structure, the ongoing process of globalisation may have important implications for the interaction of exchange rates and the overall economy. This paper presents evidence regarding possible changes in the role of exchange rates in a more globalised economy. First, it analyses the link between exchange rates and prices, showing that there is at most a moderate decline in exchange rate pass-through for the euro area. Next, it turns to the effect of exchange rate changes on trade flows. The findings indicate that the responsiveness of euro area exports to exchange rate changes may have declined somewhat as a result of globalisation, reflecting mainly shifts in the geographical and sectoral composition of trade flows. The paper also provides a firm-level analysis of the impact of exchange rate changes on corporate profits, which suggests that overall this relationship appears to be relatively stable over time, although there are important crosscountry differences. In addition, it studies the overall impact of exchange rates on GDP and the potential role of valuation effects as a transmission channel in the case of the euro area

The identification of fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances - unexploited synergies under the strengthened EU governance framework

In the light of the lessons learned from the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the EU fiscal and macroeconomic governance framework was overhauled in 2011. Against this background, this paper analyses whether the broadened surveillance of fiscal and macroeconomic indicators under the strengthened governance framework would have facilitated the identification of emerging imbalances, had it been in place before the crisis. The findings suggest that the strengthened governance framework would have given earlier signals about emerging excessive fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances. Euro area countries thus would have been obliged to take preventive and corrective action at an earlier stage, provided that the stricter rules had been effectively implemented. At the same time, the paper concludes that the increased reliance of the EU fiscal governance framework on unobservable magnitudes such as the structural budget balance, which are difficult to measure in real time, will continue to impede the timely identification of underlying fiscal imbalances. It is suggested that the new macroeconomic imbalance procedure could have given earlier indications about the emergence of excessive macroeconomic imbalances, which in turn posed risks for fiscal sustainability. Looking forward, these preliminary findings suggest possible synergies between the, until now largely unrelated, fiscal and macroeconomic governance frameworks

Implicit government guarantees and bank herding behavior

During the past two decades 130 of the 182 IMF member countries have experienced serious problems in their banking sectors or an outright banking crisis. Among the stylized facts about these crises are their often systemic nature, a pronounced boom-bust cyde and substantial financial involvement by the government in the resolution process. This paper tries to tie these features together in a model of banks' herding behavior. Most existing models of herding behavior can explain the similarity of actions taken by different agents but do not necessarily imply excessive riskiness of these actions. On the other hand, many models that try to explain excessive risk-taking do not contain any incentive for herding. This paper develops astate-preference model of simultaneous herding and excessive risktaking. Thus, the model can help in understanding the frequency as weIl as the systemic nature ofbanking crises ...Während der letzten zwei Jahrzehnte haben 130 der 182 IWF-Mitgliedsländer ernsthafte Probleme in ihren Bankensystemen bis hin zu ausgewachsenen Bankenkrisen erfahren. Typische Merkmale dieser Krisen sind U.a. deren systemischer Charakter, ein ausgeprägtes "Boom-Bust" -Verlaufsmuster , sowie ein erhebliches fmanzielles Engagement der Regierung in der Krisenabwicklung. In diesem Aufsatz wird versucht diese Kriesencharakteristika in einem Modell des Herdenverhaltens im Bankensektor zusammenfassend zu erklären. Obwohl die meisten existierenden Herdenmodelle in der Lage sind, gleichgerichtetes Verhalten von Wirtschaftssubjekten zu erklären, implizieren sie nicht notwendigerweise, daß sich die so entstehende Herde auch einem übermäßig hohen Risiko aussetzt. Umgekehrt enthalten die meisten Modelle, die eine solche übermäßige Risikowahl erklären könnten, keinen inhärenten Anreiz fiir gleichgerichtetes Herdenverhalten. Das vorliegende Papier entwickelt ein Zustandspräferenzmodell bei dem sich Herdenverhalten und übermäßige Risikowahl gleichzeitig aus dem Rationalkalkül der Akteure ergibt. Das Modell kann somit nicht nur die Häufigkeit sondern auch den systemischen Charakter von Bankenkrisen erklären ..