From Data to Decision: The Three Elements of Policymaking Illustrated by The Case of Global Warming

This article studies the process from data acquisition to policy decisions exemplified by studying an optimum policy on global warming. Policymakers must be reasonably skeptical before proposing remedies to curb warming, but policymakers cannot await the final proof of any proposal’s merit. Balancing evidence with doubt requires an informed approach, in which information is converted to knowledge and used to illuminate and compare human welfare connected to different scenarios. This article suggests, normatively, three essential elements for data based policies: evidence, consequence, and strategy. The presented framework for data based policymaking combines results from decision theory, economics, and political theory.data based, decision making, global warming, loss function, policymaking, social welfare, strategy, type-I error

What Hides Behind the Rate of Unemployment? Micro Evidence from Norway

Building on a complete account of registered unemployment spells in Norway, we study how the composition of unemployment has developed over the last ten years. The total volume of unemployment has become more unequally distributed than before, but it is difficult to identify the ‘losers’ in terms of observed characteristics. There are no signs of low-education workers doing systematically worse. The most conspicuous change with respect to observed characteristics is that the relative outflow rates for older workers have deteriorated sharply.

When minority labor migrants meet the Welfare State

The lifecycle employment profiles of minority labor migrants who came to Norway in the early 1970s diverge significantly from those of native comparison persons. During the early years, employment in the migrant group was nearly complete and exceeded that of natives. But, about ten years upon arrival, immigrant employment started a sharp and steady decline, and by 2000 their employment rate was 50 percent, compared to 87 percent for the native comparison group. We find that immigrant employment is particularly sensitive to the business cycle, and that the economic downturns of the 1980s and 1990s accelerated their exit from the labor market. We trace part of the decline to the migrants initially being overrepresented in shrinking industries and occupations. But we also identify considerable disincentives embedded in the social security system that contribute to poor lifecycle employment performance of immigrants with many dependent family members

Organisational Change, Absenteeism and Welfare Dependency

In this report the authors show that recent attempts to reorganise and cut costs in the Norwegian health care and social services sectors have had the unintended side effects of raising the level of sickness absence and disability among the employees, and that these effects have persisted several years after completion of the reorganisation processes. Since a substantial proportion of the resulting costs are external to the decision-makers, we suspect that the pace of change may have been excessively high. Changes that were efficient from each service provider’s point of view may have been inefficient from a social and a public-finance point of view.Absenteeism; hazard rate model; NPMLE

Educating Children of Immigrants: Closing the Gap in Norwegian Schools

Children of immigrant parents constitute a growing share of school cohorts in many OECD countries, and their educational performance is vital for successful social and economic integration. This paper examines educational outcomes of first and second generation non- OECD immigrants in Norway. We show that children of immigrants, and particularly those born outside Norway, are much more likely to leave school early than native children. Importantly, this gap shrunk sharply over the past two decades and second generation immigrants are now rapidly catching up with the educational performance of natives. For childhood immigrants, upper secondary completion rates decline with age at arrival, with a particularly steep gradient after age seven. Finally, we find that immigrant-native attainment gaps disappear when we condition on grade points from compulsory school.immigrant children, educational attainment, school performance

Unemployment Duration, Incentives and Institutions - A Micro-Econometric Analysis Based on Scandinavian Data

Based on a combined register database for Norwegian and Swedish unemployment spells, we use the ‘between-countries-variation’ in the unemployment insurance systems to identify causal effects. The elasticity of the job hazard rate with respect to the benefit replacement ratio is around -1.0 in Norway and -0.5 in Sweden. The limited benefit duration period in Sweden has a large positive impact on the hazard rate, despite generous renewal options through participation in labour market programs. Compulsory program participation seems to operate as a ‘stick’, rather than a ‘carrot’, and is therefore an efficient tool for counteracting moral hazard problems in the benefit system.Unemployment spells; unemployment compensation; non-parametric duration analysis.

Disability in the Welfare State: An Unemployment Problem in Disguise?

Economies with low unemployment often have high disability rates. In Norway, the permanent disability insurance rolls outnumber registered unemployment by four to one. Based on administrative register data matched with firms' financial statements and closure data collected from bankruptcy proceedings, we show that a large fraction of Norwegian disability insurance claims can be directly attributed to job displacement and other adverse shocks to employment opportunities. For men, we estimate that job loss more than doubles the risk of entry to permanent disability and that displacements account for fully 28 percent of all new disability insurance claims. We conclude that unemployment and disability insurance are close substitutes.disability, displacement, social insurance, employment opportunities

The Sick Pay Trap

In most countries, employers are financially responsible for sick pay during an initial period of a worker's absence spell, after which the public insurance system covers the bill. Based on a quasi-natural experiment in Norway, where pay liability was removed for pregnancy-related absences, we show that firms' absence costs significantly affect employees' absence behavior. However, by restricting pay liability to the initial period of the absence spell, firms are discouraged from letting long-term sick workers back into work, since they then face the financial risk associated with subsequent relapses. We show that this disincentive effect is statistically and economically significant.absenteeism, social insurance, experience rating, multivariate hazard rate models

Wage Formation, Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness

Economic theory predicts that local labour market tightness affects local wage setting as well as individuals’ migration decisions. But how should we measure local labour market tightness? In this paper we show that the common practice of using the local rate of unemployment as the tightness indicator may be misplaced. Instead, we propose a human capital adjusted outflow rate from unemployment that can be computed on the basis of micro register data. This outflow rate performs better than traditional measures of regional labour market conditions in panel data analyses of regional wages and interregional migration.Regional wages; interregional migration; labour market tightness

Informal Care and Labor Supply

Based on Norwegian register data we show that having a lone parent in the terminal phase of life significantly affects the offspring’s labor market activity. The employment propen-sity declines by around 1 percentage point among sons and 2 percentage points among daughters during the years just prior to the parent’s death, ceteris paribus. Long-term sickness absence increases sharply. The probability of being a long-term social security claimant (defined as being a claimant for at least three months during a year) rises with as much as 4 percentage points for sons and 2 percentage points for daughters. After the par-ent’s demise, earnings tend to rise for those still in employment while the employment propensity continues to decline. The higher rate of social security dependency persists for several years.Elderly care; labor supply; ageing; inheritance