Final countdown for biodiversity hotspots

Most of Earth's biodiversity is found in 36 biodiversity hotspots, yet less than 10% natural intact vegetation remains. We calculated models projecting the future state of most of these hotspots for the year 2050, based on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure. Our models project an increasing demand for agricultural land resulting in the conversion of >50% of remaining natural intact vegetation in about one third of all hotspots, and in 2-6 hotspots resulting from climatic pressure. This confirms that, in the short term, habitat loss is of greater concern than climate change for hotspots and their biodiversity. Hotspots are most severely threatened in tropical Africa and parts of Asia, where demographic pressure and the demand for agricultural land is highest. The speed and magnitude of pristine habitat loss is, according to our models, much greater than previously shown when combining both scenarios on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure

From Africa to Europe and back: refugia and range shifts cause high genetic differentiation in the Marbled White butterfly Melanargia galathea

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The glacial-interglacial oscillations caused severe range modifications of biota. Thermophilic species became extinct in the North and survived in southern retreats, e.g. the Mediterranean Basin. These repeated extinction and (re)colonisation events led to long-term isolation and intermixing of populations and thus resulted in strong genetic imprints in many European species therefore being composed of several genetic lineages. To better understand these cycles of repeated expansion and retraction, we selected the Marbled White butterfly <it>Melanargia galathea</it>. Fourty-one populations scattered over Europe and the Maghreb and one population of the sibling taxon <it>M. lachesis </it>were analysed using allozyme electrophoresis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We obtained seven distinct lineages applying neighbour joining and STRUCTURE analyses: (i) Morocco, (ii) Tunisia, (iii) Sicily, (iv) Italy and southern France, (v) eastern Balkans extending to Central Europe, (vi) western Balkans with western Carpathian Basin as well as (vii) south-western Alps. The hierarchy of these splits is well matching the chronology of glacial and interglacial cycles since the Günz ice age starting with an initial split between the <it>galathea </it>group in North Africa and the <it>lachesis </it>group in Iberia. These genetic structures were compared with past distribution patterns during the last glacial stage calculated with distribution models.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both methods suggest climatically suitable areas in the Maghreb and the southern European peninsulas with distinct refugia during the last glacial period and underpin strong range expansions to the North during the Postglacial. However, the allozyme patterns reveal biogeographical structures not detected by distribution modelling as two distinct refugia in the Maghreb, two or more distinct refugia at the Balkans and a close link between the eastern Maghreb and Sicily. Furthermore, the genetically highly diverse western Maghreb might have acted as source or speciation centre of this taxon, while the eastern, genetically impoverished Maghreb population might result from a relatively recent recolonisation from Europe via Sicily.</p

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Ecological Niche Modelling and nDNA Sequencing Support a New, Morphologically Cryptic Beetle Species Unveiled by DNA Barcoding

DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species

Enriching Business Process Models with Decision Rules

Making the right decisions in time is one of the key tasks in every business. In this context, decision theory fosters decision-making based on well-defined decision rules. The latter evaluate a given set of input parameters and utilize evidenced data in order to determine an optimal alternative out of a given set of choices. In particular, decision rules are relevant in the context business processes as well. Contemporary process modeling languages, however, have not incorporated decision theory yet, but mainly consider rather simple, guard-based decisions that refer to process-relevant data. To remedy this drawback, this paper introduces an approach that allows embedding decision problems in business process models and applying decision rules to deal with them. As a major benefit, it becomes possible to automatically determine optimal execution paths during run time

Disentangling host, pathogen, and environmental determinants of a recently emerged wildlife disease: lessons from the first 15 years of amphibian chytridiomycosis research

The amphibian fungal disease chytridiomycosis, which affects species across all continents, recently emerged as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Yet, many aspects of the basic biology and epidemiology of the pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), are still unknown, such as when and from where did Bd emerge and what is its true ecological niche? Here, we review the ecology and evolution of Bd in the Americas and highlight controversies that make this disease so enigmatic. We explore factors associated with variance in severity of epizootics focusing on the disease triangle of host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, and environment. Reevaluating the causes of the panzootic is timely given the wealth of data on Bd prevalence across hosts and communities and the recent discoveries suggesting co‐evolutionary potential of hosts and Bd. We generate a new species distribution model for Bd in the Americas based on over 30,000 records and suggest a novel future research agenda. Instead of focusing on pathogen “hot spots,” we need to identify pathogen “cold spots” so that we can better understand what limits the pathogen's distribution. Finally, we introduce the concept of “the Ghost of Epizootics Past” to discuss expected patterns in postepizootic host communities.We review the ecology and evolution of amphibian fungal disease chytridiomycosis in the Americas, where it has recently emerged as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and highlight controversies that make this disease so enigmatic. We explore factors associated with variance in severity of epizootics focusing on the disease triangle of host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, and environment. We generate a new species distribution model for Bd in the Americas based on over 30,000 records, which suggests emphasis needs to be placed on studying pathogen “cold spots” so that we can better understand what biotic and abiotic factors limit the pathogen's distribution.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113682/1/ece31672_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113682/2/ece31672.pd

Set optimization - a rather short introduction

Recent developments in set optimization are surveyed and extended including various set relations as well as fundamental constructions of a convex analysis for set- and vector-valued functions, and duality for set optimization problems. Extensive sections with bibliographical comments summarize the state of the art. Applications to vector optimization and financial risk measures are discussed along with algorithmic approaches to set optimization problems

Is Chytridiomycosis an Emerging Infectious Disease in Asia?

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world

Estimates of DNA damage by the comet assay in the direct-developing frog Eleutherodactylus johnstonei (Anura, Eleutherodactylidae)

The aim of this study was to use the Comet assay to assess genetic damage in the direct-developing frog Eleutherodactylus johnstonei. A DNA diffusion assay was used to evaluate the effectiveness of alkaline, enzymatic and alkaline/enzymatic treatments for lysing E. johnstonei blood cells and to determine the amount of DNA strand breakage associated with apoptosis and necrosis. Cell sensitivity to the mutagens bleomycin (BLM) and 4-nitro-quinoline-1-oxide (4NQO) was also assessed using the Comet assay, as was the assay reproducibility. Alkaline treatment did not lyse the cytoplasmic and nuclear membranes of E. johnstonei blood cells, whereas enzymatic digestion with proteinase K (40 μg/mL) yielded naked nuclei. The contribution of apoptosis and necrosis (assessed by the DNA diffusion assay) to DNA damage was estimated to range from 0% to 8%. BLM and 4NQO induced DNA damage in E. johnstonei blood cells at different concentrations and exposure times. Dose-effect curves with both mutagens were highly reproducible and showed consistently low coefficients of variation (CV ≤ 10%). The results are discussed with regard to the potential use of the modified Comet assay for assessing the exposure of E. johnstonei to herbicides in ecotoxicological studies

The World's Rediscovered Species: Back from the Brink?

Each year, numerous species thought to have disappeared are rediscovered. Yet, do these rediscoveries represent the return of viable populations or the delayed extinction of doomed species? We document the number, distribution and conservation status of rediscovered amphibian, bird, and mammal species globally. Over the past 122 years, at least 351 species have been rediscovered, most occurring in the tropics. These species, on average, were missing for 61 years before being rediscovered (range of 3–331 years). The number of rediscoveries per year increased over time and the majority of these rediscoveries represent first documentations since their original description. Most rediscovered species have restricted ranges and small populations, and 92% of amphibians, 86% of birds, and 86% of mammals are highly threatened, independent of how long they were missing or when they were rediscovered. Under the current trends of widespread habitat loss, particularly in the tropics, most rediscovered species remain on the brink of extinction