Trends in Absolute Poverty in Pakistan: 1990-91 and 2001

Poverty, defined comprehensively as absence of options to shape one’s life according to one’s own preferences, comes closer to the concept of human development as presented in UNDP’s Human Development Reports. Absolute poverty, on the contrary, defines poverty in terms of satisfaction of minimum physical needs of food and non-food items to enable people at the lower end of income distribution to engage in economic activity. From the vantage point of the policy-maker concerned with alleviation of poverty, it is crucial to know the magnitude of the existing level of poverty and identify the policy determinants of poverty as well as constraints standing in the way of an effective attack on the worst forms of absolute poverty. In Pakistan, like many other developing countries, poverty has emerged as a core issue on the policy agenda. The traditional measures of poverty—headcount, severity and poverty gap indicate that the incidence of poverty during the previous decade have shown no sign of poverty abatement despite numerous policy and institutional initiatives undertaken by the government. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s—an era of stabilisation and structural adjustment has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. However, there is no consensus on the poverty outcomes from the policy and institutional reforms. Primarily due to non-availability of basic data, the last year for which poverty estimates are available is 1998-99. In view of the need to monitor poverty trends and continuously evaluate the efficacy of policies adopted by the government under the poverty reduction strategy, it is important to evolve a consensus on the use of a consistent poverty line, sources of data and data adjustments for measuring poverty. It is this policy context that has guided us to use a consistent definition of poverty line.

Domestic Terms of Trade and Public Policy for Agriculture in Pakistan

Despite the crucial importance of information on intersectoral terms of trade in the formulation of a host of public policies, the official statistical system in Pakistan is yet to generate a statistical series of the terms of trade for the .agricultural sector on a regular basis. A number of views expressed on Pakistan's agriculture appear to be based either on results of studies that are now outdated, or on a complete neglect of the existing data that could be processed to calculate the terms-of. trade indices. This paper attempts to provide information on the movement of terms of trade for the agricultural sector for the period from 1951-52 to 1983-84. The impact of changes in terms of trade on farm output, distribution of income and efficient use of resources is also traced

Landlessness and Rural Poverty in Pakistan

Although reducing rural poverty has been the key agenda of economic reforms in Pakistan, the rural poverty continued to rise during the 1990s. The causes of rural poverty are complex and multidimensional. The rural poor are quite diverse both in the problems they face, and the possible solutions to these problems are also different. The paper uses the most recent household data set available—PIHS 2001-02—to examine the causes of rural poverty, as to what accounts for its persistence and what policy measures should be taken to alleviate it. Poverty estimates using official poverty line suggest the high prevalence of rural poverty ranging from 39 percent to 48 percent in all provinces. Rural poverty is found to be strongly correlated with lack of asset in rural areas. The unequal land ownership in the country is found to be one of the major causes of rural poverty, as poverty level was the highest among the landless households followed by non-agriculture households. The incidence of landlessness is common in rural areas. About 67 percent households own no land in the country. Unusually, just 0.3 percent households own 55 and above acres of land across the country, suggesting a highly skewed landownership pattern. Gini Coefficient of landholding suggests that Punjab has the most unequal landownership pattern, followed by the NWFP, Sindh, and Balochistan. The highly unequal land distribution seems to have resulted in tenancy arrangements such as sharecropping, resulting in high prevalence of absolute poverty particularly in Sindh. A broad-based land reform programme, including land redistribution and fair and enforceable tenancy contracts together with rural public works programmes and access to credit, is critical to reducing rural poverty in Pakistan.Poverty, Pakistan

Trends in Absolute Poverty in Pakistan: 1990-91 and 2001

Poverty, defined comprehensively as absence of options to shape one’s life according to one’s own preferences, comes closer to the concept of human development as presented in UNDP’s Human Development Reports. Absolute poverty, on the contrary, defines poverty in terms of satisfaction of minimum physical needs of food and non-food items to enable people at the lower end of income distribution to engage in economic activity. From the vantage point of the policy-maker concerned with alleviation of poverty, it is crucial to know the magnitude of the existing level of poverty and identify the policy determinants of poverty as well as constraints standing in the way of an effective attack on the worst forms of absolute poverty. In Pakistan, like many other developing countries, poverty has emerged as a core issue on the policy agenda. The traditional measures of poverty—headcount, severity and poverty gap indicate that the incidence of poverty during the previous decade have shown no sign of poverty abatement despite numerous policy and institutional initiatives undertaken by the government. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s—an era of stabilisation and structural adjustment has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. However, there is no consensus on the poverty outcomes from the policy and institutional reforms. Primarily due to non-availability of basic data, the last year for which poverty estimates are available is 1998-99

Impact of Infrastructure and Agroclimate on the Location of Rural Bank Branches in Pakistan: A Preliminary Assessment

Rural financial institutions play an important role in development and growth of the agricultural sector. In developing economies some rural areas are adequately served by financial institutions, while others have little or no access to these institutions. This uneven pattern of geographic location of rural bank branches has been attributed largely to regional differences in agroclimatic conditions and infrastructural endowments. We have estimated several alternative specifications which can be helpful in understanding the spatial distribution of commercial bank branches across the rural areas. Our results indicate that the location of rural bank branches is significantly influenced by infrastructural endowments and agroclimatic environment.

Domestic Resource Mobilisation for Development in Pakistan

This paper examines the determinants of private, domestic, and household savings in Pakistan. The analysis shows that private savings can be expected to grow gradually as a result of rising per capita income, falling dependency burden, improved financial deepening, and macro stability. Bivariate causality tests between GNP and savings show that GNP causes both domestic and public savings. However, the causality test is inconclusive in the case of causation between GNP and private savings. This finding has important policy implication in the sense that once a virtual cycle succeeds in accelerating growth, saving would catch up with a lag. In this sense, financing of investment is not a major constraint. The paper underlines the following policy options: (i) a strong effort spread over tax policy (tax reforms as well as tax administration), expenditure restraint, effective expenditure management, and public sector corporate reforms should aim at raising public savings to about 6 percent of the GDP; (ii) the incentives for private savings in Pakistan need to be revamped.

Rural Credit and Rural Development: Some Issues

Credit plays an important role in acquiring command over the use of working capital, fixed capital, and consumption goods that leads to growth and development of a country. The paper investigates that the role of non-institutional sources is quite clearly borne out. The price paid for institutional credit in Pakistan Kept low by the government. Institutional credit reforms implemented has not been effective. There is a great need to have the land reforms prior to credit reforms. The importance of social and economic infrastructure needs to be addressed. Appropriate use of new credit should be assured. Proper credit policy be designed and implemented.

Rural Credit and Rural Development: Some Issues

Credit is an important instrument of acquiring command over the use of working capital, fixed capital and consumption goods. In the wake of Green Revolution, land and labour have receded into the background as predominant factors of growth. Use of capital and adoption of modern techniques of production which have become major sources of growth of agricultural output necessitate access to credit markets for financing their use. Institutional sources of credit have become quite significant during the last few years. The rapid expansion of credit from institutional sources can be seen from various indicators. The total disbursement of agricultural loans has gone up from Rs. 306.75 million in 1972-73 to Rs. 5,102.14 million in 1981-82. On a per acre basis, the loans increased from Rs. 7.33 in 1972-73 to Rs. 106.83 in 1981-82. In this perspective, the disparities in income and wealth in rural areas would crucially depend on the distribution of capital among farms of different sizes and occupational groups. Neglecting equitable distribution of credit as a policy instrument for rural income redistribution may be a serious omission by the policy makers interested in an improvement of rural equity

Domestic Resource Mobilisation for Development in Pakistan

This paper examines the determinants of private, domestic, and household savings in Pakistan. The analysis shows that private savings can be expected to grow gradually as a result of rising per capita income, falling dependency burden, improved financial deepening, and macro stability. Bivariate causality tests between GNP and savings show that GNP causes both domestic and public savings. However, the causality test is inconclusive in the case of causation between GNP and private savings. This finding has important policy implication in the sense that once a virtual cycle succeeds in accelerating growth, saving would catch up with a lag. In this sense, financing of investment is not a major constraint. The paper underlines the following policy options: (i) a strong effort spread over tax policy (tax reforms as well as tax administration), expenditure restraint, effective expenditure management, and public sector corporate reforms should aim at raising public savings to about 6 percent of the GDP; (ii) the incentives for private savings in Pakistan need to be revamped

Domestic Resource Mobilisation for Development in Pakistan

This paper examines the determinants of private, domestic, and household savings in Pakistan. The analysis shows that private savings can be expected to grow gradually as a result of rising per capita income, falling dependency burden, improved financial deepening, and macro stability. Bivariate causality tests between GNP and savings show that GNP causes both domestic and public savings. However, the causality test is inconclusive in the case of causation between GNP and private savings. This finding has important policy implication in the sense that once a virtual cycle succeeds in accelerating growth, saving would catch up with a lag. In this sense, financing of investment is not a major constraint. The paper underlines the following policy options: (i) a strong effort spread over tax policy (tax reforms as well as tax administration), expenditure restraint, effective expenditure management, and public sector corporate reforms should aim at raising public savings to about 6 percent of the GDP; (ii) the incentives for private savings in Pakistan need to be revamped