The Power of An Outside Option that Generates a Focal Point: An Experimental Investigation

Existing experimental studies have shown that an outside option, when offered to one of the two players who later participate in a battle-of-the-sexes game, facilitates coordination by making the equilibrium that favors the same player focal. Since the other player’s payoff in the outside option was lower than that in the focal point, it is possible that there was a reciprocal motive of the other player to coordinate on the focal point. Then it is possible that the actual power of the outside option to generate the focal point was either lower or non-existent. The current paper reports results of an experiment designed to test for the focal point effect of the outside option by controlling for the reciprocal motive of the other player. The results confirm that the outside option can generate the focal point even when the reciprocal motive is absent. In fact, the saliency of the focal point is higher after controlling for reciprocity.

Focal Points and Economic Efficiency: Role of Relative Label Salience

We experimentally analyze efficiency-enhancing power of focal points in 2x2 Pareto-ranked coordination games. We find that the power of focal labels, when attached to the Pareto-efficient strategy, to promote efficiency critically depends upon the alternative strategy’s label salience. When the relative salience of our focal labels is considerably weaker, focal labels mostly fail to raise expected efficiency beyond the mixed-strategy prediction. But when the relative salience of our focal labels is markedly stronger, focal labels raise expected efficiency much beyond the mixed-strategy prediction. Furthermore, we find that focal labels’ efficiency-enhancing power decreases as a measure of risk-dominance increases across games.

Comparative advantage in Bangladesh crop production

"This study uses data from 1996/97 through 1998/99 to examine the relative efficiency of production of crops in Bangladesh and their comparative advantage in international trade as measured by net economic profitability (the profitability using economic, rather than financial costs and prices), and the domestic resource cost ratio, (the amount of value of non-tradable domestic resources used in production divided by the value of tradable products). The economic profitability analysis demonstrates that Bangladesh has a comparative advantage in domestic production of rice for import substitution. However, at the export parity price, economic profitability of rice is generally less than economic profitability of many non-rice crops, implying that Bangladesh has more profitable options other than production for rice export. Several non-cereal crops, including vegetables, potatoes and onions have financial and economic returns that are as high as or higher than those of High Yielding Variety (HYV) rice. The relatively minor role in cropping systems of these crops despite their higher returns, can largely be attributed to high price risks associated with marketing, suggesting the need for further development of agro-processing industries, rural infrastructure, and marketing networks." Authors' Abstract

Did You Miss the Sign? A False Negative Alarm System for Traffic Sign Detectors

Object detection is an integral part of an autonomous vehicle for its safety-critical and navigational purposes. Traffic signs as objects play a vital role in guiding such systems. However, if the vehicle fails to locate any critical sign, it might make a catastrophic failure. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify traffic signs that have been mistakenly discarded by the object detector. The proposed method raises an alarm when it discovers a failure by the object detector to detect a traffic sign. This approach can be useful to evaluate the performance of the detector during the deployment phase. We trained a single shot multi-box object detector to detect traffic signs and used its internal features to train a separate false negative detector (FND). During deployment, FND decides whether the traffic sign detector (TSD) has missed a sign or not. We are using precision and recall to measure the accuracy of FND in two different datasets. For 80% recall, FND has achieved 89.9% precision in Belgium Traffic Sign Detection dataset and 90.8% precision in German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark dataset respectively. To the best of our knowledge, our method is the first to tackle this critical aspect of false negative detection in robotic vision. Such a fail-safe mechanism for object detection can improve the engagement of robotic vision systems in our daily life.Comment: Submitted to the 2019 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS 2019

Rice price stabilization in Bangladesh

To meet its overall objective of ensuring food security for all households, the Government of Bangladesh undertakes several activities: it intervenes in markets to stabilize prices, targets food distribution to poor households and provides emergency relief after natural disasters. This paper provides measures of the variability of domestic and international rice prices, and examines the mix of government intervention and private sector participation in rice markets. The analysis shows that the relatively high degree of price stability achieved in the 1990s was due in large part to private sector imports that stabilized markets following major production shortfalls. Domestic rice procurement contributed relatively little to raising domestic producer prices at harvest time, involved only a small percentage of farmers, and incurred excessive costs following successful harvests because of procurement prices set far in excess of market prices.Price regulation ,Food security South Asia ,Government policy ,Markets Prices ,Rice Bangladesh ,

Food Security and Nutrition in Bangladesh: Progress and Determinants

For Bangladesh food security was synonymous with achieving self-sufficiency in rice production and stabilization in rice prices. The country has made good progress in increasing rice production through technological progress, facilitated by private sector investment in small scale irrigation. But, it is difficult to sustain the progress made in view of the growing pressure of population on scarce land resources. Domestic food grain production remains susceptible to floods and droughts thereby perpetuating the threat of major production shortfalls, inadequate food availability, and vulnerability from fluctuation in prices. The availability of other foods has not increased, and the progress in nutritional outcome has remained slow. Forty percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and income inequality has been worsening. This paper assesses the trends in factors that affect food production, availability of food and their impact on nutrition outcomes. It also probes into the trends in poverty and distribution of income and access to food through markets.Bangladesh, food security, nutrition, poverty, safety nets, natural disasters, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,

Delay in DOTS for new pulmonary tuberculosis patient from rural area of Wardha District, India

Vast majority of active tuberculosis patients seeks treatment, do so promptly, still many patients spend a great deal of time and money “shopping for health” and too often they do not receive either accurate diagnosis or effective treatment, despite spending considerable resources. Objective: To find out the time taken to, for diagnosis of tuberculosis and to put patient on DOTS from the onset of symptoms and pattern of health seeking behavior of new pulmonary tuberculosis patients. A cross-sectional rapid assessment using qualitative (FGD) and quantitative (Interview) methods conducted at DOTS center of tertiary care hospital from rural Wardha. Participants: 53 pulmonary tuberculosis patients already on DOTS, in intensive phase. Main outcome measure: Delay in initiation of DOTS & health seeking behavior Results: Median total delay for starting DOTS was 111 days, (range: 10 to 321 days). Patient delay was more than provider delay. Patients delay was more in patients above 60 years, illiterate, per-capita income below 650 Rupees and HIV TB co-infection. Pattern of health seeking behavior was complex. Family physician was the preferred health care provider. Patient visited on an average four providers and spent around 1450 rupees (only direct cost) before DOTS begin. Time taken from the onset of symptoms and start of DOT is a cause of concern for the tuberculosis control program. Early case detection is important rather than mere achieving target of 70% new case detection. Program manager needs to implement locally relevant & focused strategies for early case detection to improve the treatment success, especially in rural area of India

ACAT 2.0: An AI Transformer-Based Approach to Predictive Speech Generation

While constituting a rare family of diseases that afflicts 268,000 people worldwide, motor neuron diseases carry a high fatality rate with one-third of people dying within a year of diagnosis and 50% of people dying within two years (MND Association, 2022). MNDs rapidly and progressively impair muscle movement, making everyday activities like walking, chewing, and speaking almost impossible. In collaboration with famed physicist Dr. Stephen Hawking, Intel Labs developed an assistive communications platform known as ACAT to simulate speech and facilitate electronic tasks. However, the original ACAT can be slow to use, leading to awkward pauses in conversations. This paper presents a solution through a machine learning pipeline that listens in on conversations and generates full sentence responses that more accurately simulates human speech in real time. Our pipeline consists of three main phases: (1) voice activity detection; (ii) diarization; and (iii) response generation. A significant benefit of this technique is that it allows users a flexible substitution of components. Our results show that this speech generation method can significantly improve conversational flow, partly by adapting to user feedback to create more accurate results. To increase efficacy further, we plan to implement additional steps that incorporate fine-tuning the voice activity detector and diarizer models, enhancing and integrating our GUI into ACAT, and upgrading the response generator