An Intercomparison of GPS RO Retrievals with Colocated Analysis and In Situ Observations within Tropical Cyclones

Observations from four Global Position System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) missions: Global Positioning System/Meteorology, CHAallenging Minisatellite Payload, Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C, and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate and Taiwan's FORMOsa SATellite Mission #3 (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3) are collected within a 600 km radius and ±180 minute temporal window of all observed tropical cyclones (TCs) from 1995 to 2006 that were recorded in the global hurricane best-track reanalysis data set (Jarvinen et al. (1984); Davis et al. (1984)). A composite analysis of tropical cyclone radial mean temperature and water vapor profiles is carried out using the GPS RO retrievals which are colocated with global analysis profiles and available in situ radiosonde observations. The differences between the respective observations and analysis profiles are quantified and the preliminary results show that the observations collected within TCs correspond favorably with both the analysis and radiosonde profiles which are colocated. It is concluded that GPS RO observations will contribute significantly to the understanding and modeling of TC structures, especially those related to vertical variability of the atmospheric state within TCs

Effect of Doppler Radial Velocity Data Assimilation on the Simulation of a Typhoon Approaching Taiwan: A Case Study of Typhoon Aere (2004)

Compared to conventional data, radar observations have an advantage of high spatial and temporal resolutions, and Doppler radars are capable of capturing detailed characteristics of flow fields, including typhoon circulation. In this study, the possible improvement of short-term typhoon predictions near Taiwan, particularly with regard to related rainfall forecasts over the mountainous island, using Doppler radial wind observations is explored. The case of Typhoon Aere (2004) was chosen for study, and a series of experiments were carried out using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) with its three-dimensional variational (3D-VAR) data assimilation system

The Formation of Multiple Squall Lines and the Impacts of WSR-88D Radial Winds in a WRF Simulation

A detailed observational and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model analysis utilizing Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), surface, and upper-air observations, as well as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images, shows a chain of events that leads to the formation of two prefrontal squall lines along the western Gulf coast on 29–30 April 2005. An approaching surface cold front (CF) generated an atmospheric bore that propagated along an inversion layer and excited high-frequency, low-level tropospheric gravity waves, initiating a squall line 60 km east of the cold front. This sequence of events manifested itself as low-level convergence ahead of the CF, which was detected by nearby WSR-88D radars. Two WRF model experiments were conducted in which one assimilated conventional observations (CTRL), and another included radar radial winds from nine WSR-88D locations (denoted as RADAR). Better representation of the low-level kinematics in RADAR yielded a distinct convergence line associated with the primary squall line. The RADAR experiment, as well as observations (such as an 0600 UTC Slidell, Louisiana, sounding), show that the secondary squall line formed ahead of the primary squall line due to high water vapor and warm temperature advection from the Gulf of Mexico that, when combined with a deep dry layer above the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), destabilized the atmosphere. Concurrently, a lower-tropospheric trough, propagating faster than the surface front, enhanced lifting in the region and instigated the formation of new convection. RADAR forecasted the secondary convection not only in the right place but also at about the right time, while the CTRL experiment completely missed this secondary convection

Prediction of Landfalling Hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model

Abstract Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast