Inferring Economic Condition Uncertainty from Electricity Big Data

Inferring the uncertainties in economic conditions are of significant importance for both decision makers as well as market players. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to construct the Economic Condition Uncertainty (ECU) index that can be used to infer the economic condition uncertainties. The ECU index is a dimensionless index ranges between zero and one, this makes it to be comparable among sectors, regions and periods. We use the daily electricity consumption data of nearly 20 thousand firms in Shanghai from 2018 to 2020 to construct the ECU indexes. Results show that all ECU indexes, no matter at sectoral level or regional level, successfully captured the negative impacts of COVID-19 on Shanghai's economic conditions. Besides, the ECU indexes also presented the heterogeneities in different districts as well as in different sectors. This reflects the facts that changes in uncertainties of economic conditions are mainly related to regional economic structures and targeted regulation policies faced by sectors. The ECU index can also be easily extended to measure uncertainties of economic conditions in different fields which has great potentials in the future

B→KK∗B \to K K^{*} Decays in the Perturbative QCD Approach

We calculate the branching ratios and CP-violating asymmetries for B^0 \to K^{0} \ov K^{*0}, \ov K^{0} K^{*0}, $K^+ K^{*-}$, $K^- K^{*+}$, and B^+\to K^+ \ov K^{*0} and \ov K^0 K^{*+} decays by employing the low energy effective Hamiltonian and the perturbative QCD (pQCD) factorization approach. The theoretical predictions for the branching ratios are Br(B^0/\ov B^0 \to K^{\pm} K^{*\mp}) \approx 7.4 \times 10^{-8}, Br(B^0/\ov B^0 \to K^{0} \ov K^{*0}(\ov K^{0} K^{*0})) \approx 19.6 \times 10^{-7}, Br(B^+\to K^+ \ov K^{*0}) \approx 3 \times 10^{-7} and Br(B^+\to K^{*+} \ov K^0) \approx 18.3 \times 10^{-7}, which are consistent with currently available experimental upper limits. We also predict large CP-violating asymmetries in these decays: A_{CP}^{dir}(K^\pm \ov K^{*0})\approx -20 %, A_{CP}^{dir}(K^{*\pm} \ov K^0)\approx -49%, which can be tested by the forthcoming B meson experiments.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, RevTex, some corrections on the numerical results and contents, typos removed, new references adde

Investigating on Through Glass via Based RF Passives for 3-D Integration

Due to low dielectric loss and low cost, glass is developed as a promising material for advanced interposers in 2.5-D and 3-D integration. In this paper, through glass vias (TGVs) are used to implement inductors for minimal footprint and large quality factor. Based on the proposed physical structure, the impact of various process and design parameters on the electrical characteristics of TGV inductors is investigated with 3-D electromagnetic simulator HFSS. It is observed that TGV inductors have identical inductance and larger quality factor in comparison with their through silicon via counterparts. Using TGV inductors and parallel plate capacitors, a compact 3-D band-pass filter (BPF) is designed and analyzed. Compared with some reported BPFs, the proposed TGV-based circuit has an ultra-compact size and excellent filtering performance

“Lock-in” Effect of Emission Standard and Its Impact on the Choice of Market Based Instruments

A country’s existing emission standard policy will lead to a “lock in” effect. When the country plans to adopt new market-based instruments to control greenhouse gas emissions, it must consider this effect as it chooses among instruments to avoid larger efficiency loss. In this paper, we find that the “lock in” effect will cause a kink point to occur on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve. This change of shape for the MAC curve reminds us to be cautious in choosing market-based instruments when applying Weitzman’s rule. We also introduce this concept into a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and simulate MAC curves for all regions. After applying Weitzman’s rule, we propose a timeline for introducing price instruments under different marginal benefit (MB) curve scenarios

Multiphysics Investigation on Coolant Thermohydraulic Conditions and Fuel Rod Behavior During a Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This article simulates the multiphysics coolant thermohydraulic conditions and fuel performance of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). In the coolant channel of a PWR, the coolant undergoes a series of different boiling regimes along the axial direction. At the inlet of the coolant channel, heat exchange between the cladding wall and coolant is based on single-phase forced convection. As the coolant flow distance increases, the boiling regime gradually converts to nucleate boiling. When a LOCA occurs, on the one hand, the coolant flux and coolant pressure decrease sharply; on the other hand, the heat flux at the cladding wall decreases relatively slowly. They both contribute to a swift increase in coolant temperature. As a consequence, a boiling crisis may occur as critical heat flux (CHF) decreases. In this article, the void fraction along the length of coolant channel in a reactor and mechanical performance of Zr cladding enwrapping UO2 fuel are investigated by establishing a fully coupled multiphysics model based on the CAMPUS code. Physical models of coolant boiling regimes are implemented into the CAMPUS code by adopting different heat transfer models and void fraction models. Physical properties of the coolant are implemented into the CAMPUS code using curve-fitting results. All physical models and parameters related to solid heat transfer are implemented into the CAMPUS code with a 2D axisymmetric geometry. The modeling results help enhance our understanding of void fraction along the length of the coolant channel and mechanical performance of Zr cladding enwrapping UO2 fuel under different coolant pressure and mass flux conditions during a LOCA

Coupled Modeling and Simulation of Phase Transformation in Zircaloy-4 Fuel Cladding Under Loss-of-Coolant Accident Conditions

Under loss-of-coolant conditions, the temperature on fuel cladding will increase rapidly (up to 1000–1500 K), which will not only cause a dramatic oxidation reaction of Zircaloy-4 and an increase in hydrogen concentration but also cause an allotropic phase transformation of Zircaloy-4 from hexagonal (α-pahse) to cubic (β-phase) crystal structure. As we all know, thermophysical properties have a close relationship with the microstructure of the material. Moreover, because of an important influence of the phase transformation on the creep resistance and the ductility of the fuel rod, studying the crystallographic phase transformation kinetics is pivotal for evaluating properties for fuel rod completeness. We coupled the phase transformation model together with the existing physical models for reactor fuel, gap, cladding, and coolant, based on the finite element analysis and simulation software COMSOL Multiphysics. The critical parameter for this transformation is the evolution of the volume fraction of the favored phase described by a function of time and temperature. Hence, we choose two different volume fractions (0 and 10%) of BeO for UO2-BeO enhanced thermal conductivity nuclear fuel and zircaloy cladding as objects of this study. In order to simulate loss-of-coolant accident conditions, five relevant parameters are studied, including the gap size between fuel and cladding, the temperature at the extremities of the fuel element, the coefficient of heat transfer, the linear power rate, and the coolant temperature, to see their influence on the behavior of phase transformation under non-isothermal conditions. The results show that the addition of 10vol%BeO in the UO2 fuel decreased the phase transformation effect a lot, and no significant phase transformation was observed in Zircaloy-4 cladding with UO2-BeO enhanced thermal conductivity nuclear fuel during existing loss-of-coolant accident conditions

A Facile and Generic Strategy to Synthesize Large-Scale Carbon Nanotubes

An easy method to prepare carbon nanotubes (CNTs) has been demonstrated using a two-step refluxing and calcination process. First, a readily available inorganic salt, Ni(NO3)2⋅6H2O, used as the catalyst precursor was dissolved in the high-boiling-point organic solvents (alcohols or polyhydric alcohol) by refluxing at 190∘C for 3 hours. After refluxing, NiO nanoparticles obtained in the solution act as the catalyst, and the organic refluxing solvents are used as the carbon source for the growth of CNTs. Second, CNTs are prepared by calcining the refluxed solution at 800∘C in an N2 atmosphere for 3 hours. Results show that CNT growth possibly originates from carbon rings, with the nanotube walls growing perpendicular to these rings and forming a closed tube at the end

Effect of quercetin on the transport of ritonavir to the central nervous system in vitro and in vivo

The aim of this study was to identify an effective flavonoid that could improve the intracellular accumulation of ritonavir in human brain-microvascular endothelial cells (HBMECs). An in vivo experiment on Sprague-Dawley rats was then designed to further determine the flavonoid’s impact on the pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution of ritonavir. In the accumulation assay, the intracellular level of ritonavir was increased in the presence of 25 mmol L–1of flavonoids in HBMECs. Quercetin showed the strongest effect by improving the intracellular accumulation of ritonavir by 76.9 %. In the pharmacokinetic study, the presence of quercetin in the co-administration group and in the pretreatment group significantly decreased the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC0-t) of ritonavir by 42.2 % (p < 0.05) and 53.5 % (p < 0.01), and decreased the peak plasma concentration (Cmax) of ritonavir by 23.1 % (p < 0.05) and 45.8 % (p < 0.01), respectively, compared to the control group (ritonavir alone). In the tissue distribution study, the ritonavir concentration in the brain was significantly increased 2-fold (p < 0.01), during the absorption phase (1 h) and was still significantly higher (p < 0.05) during the distribution phase (6 h) in the presence of quercetin