Demand for Bank Lending by the Private Business Sector in Pakistan

This study estimates the demand for bank lending by the private business sector in Pakistan. For the purpose of analysis a three-step methodology is applied, that is, univariate analysis, multivariate cointegration analysis, and error correction mechanism. It is found that the individual series are difference stationary, and there is a long-run stable relationship between the variables. The preferred model, obtained by the application of the general-to-specific methodology is also found to be stable throughout the study period. The study shows that the output of business sector is an important determinant of the demand for bank credit in Pakistan, implying that to achieve the objective of monetary policy the behaviour of the output of business sector must not be ignored. Furthermore, the study shows that the rate of interest on bank advances is an important determinant of the demand of credit by the business sector. It implies that monetary authorities can move the flow of bank credit to the private sector while changing the interest rate charged on bank lending. The analysis has important implications a tight monetary policy implies a high rate of real interest; a high rate of interest on bank lending negatively affects the demand for bank credit by the business sector (and the investment), which in turn leads to low aggregate demand and lower output. That is what has happened in Pakistan in the last decade.

Does Monetary Policy Play Effective Role in Controlling Inflation in Pakistan

This paper presented the salient features of current Monetary Policy and its effectiveness to control inflation in Pakistan. The monetary authority was successful in controlling inflation when it successfully controlled the money supply target. The calculation of money supply target needs to be improved to get appropriate target level of M2. It is also concluded that in the recent years SBP failed to control money supply and hence rate of inflation within the set target level. There seems to be a lack of coordination between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities. The understanding of issues regarding monetary policy transmission mechanism, effectiveness of different channels, lag structure of monetary policy changes, magnitude of pass-through of policy changes to inflation and output and nature of relationship amongst, instruments and goals of monetary policy (inflation and output) seems to be lacking and need fresh investigation.Monetary Policy, Pakistan, Money Supply, Inflation

Demand for Bank Lending by the Private Business Sector in Pakistan

This study estimates the demand for bank lending by the private business sector in Pakistan. For the purpose of analysis a three-step methodology is applied, that is, univariate analysis, multivariate cointegration analysis, and error correction mechanism. It is found that the individual series are difference stationary, and there is a long-run stable relationship between the variables. The preferred model, obtained by the application of the general-to-specific methodology is also found to be stable throughout the study period. The study shows that the output of business sector is an important determinant of the demand for bank credit in Pakistan, implying that to achieve the objective of monetary policy the behaviour of the output of business sector must not be ignored. Furthermore, the study shows that the rate of interest on bank advances is an important determinant of the demand of credit by the business sector. It implies that monetary authorities can move the flow of bank credit to the private sector while changing the interest rate charged on bank lending. The analysis has important implications: a tight monetary policy implies a high rate of real interest; a high rate of interest on bank lending negatively affects the demand for bank credit by the business sector (and the investment), which in turn leads to low aggregate demand and lower output. That is what has happened in Pakistan in the last decade.Bank Lending; business sector; monetary policy; pakistan

Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

This paper estimated Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) of inflation variable for Pakistan by using monthly data from June 1990 to June 2001. Before calculating MCI we have estimated weights of interest rate and exchange rate to be used in the construction of MCI. For this purpose we used unit root analysis and Johenson (1988) maximum likelihood method base on vector autoregressive technology. The estimated monetary conditions ratio for Pakistan is around 2.79:1. Finally we have constructed the MCI by utilising the estimated weights of rate of interest and exchange rate. The analysis indicate overall tight monetary policy during the decade. However there is some easing spell during 1997 to 1999. This shows the determinedness of monetary authorities with objective of keeping inflation low. Low inflation at the end of the decade indicates the success of monetary authorities in the conduct of monetary policy in achieving the target of low inflation.Monetary Conditions Index (MCI); Monetary policy; Cointegraion; Pakistan

Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan

The study estimates the dynamic demand for money (M2) function in Pakistan by employing cointegration analysis and error correction mechanism. The parameters of preferred model are found to be super-exogenous for the relevant class of interventions. It is found that the rate of inflation is an important determinant of money demand in Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the rates of interest, market rate, and bond yield are important for the long-run money demand behaviour. Since the preferred model is superexogenous, it can be used for policy analysis in Pakistan.

Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation

The objective of this paper has been to estimate dynamic demand for money function for the business sector in Pakistan. It is found that the individual time series of the variables included in the money demand function are not stationary. They are integrated of order one. Further it is concluded that the one cointegration relationship between money demand and its determinants. The rate of inflation emerged as important determinant of real money balances demand by the business sector. In the long run business sector give no importance to the rate of interest while holding money.We have estimated dynamic stable money demand functions, which have remarkably good predictive power. In the short run rate of interest on saving deposit emerged an important determinant of money demand by the business sector. The previous money demand behaviour also plays an important role in the determination of current behaviour.Money demand; business sector; Unit root; Cointegration; Pakistan

Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan

This paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the excess money supply growth and inflation in Pakistan and to test the validity of the monetarist stance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The results from the correlation analysis indicate that there is a positive association between money growth and inflation. The money supply growth at first-round affects real GDP growth and at the second round it affects inflation in Pakistan. The important finding from the analysis is that the excess money supply growth has been an important contributor to the rise in inflation in Pakistan during the study period, thus supporting the monetarist proposition that inflation in Pakistan is a monetary phenomenon. This may be due to the loose monetary policy adopted by the State Bank of Pakistan to show the high priority of the growth objective. The important policy implication is that inflation in Pakistan can be cured by a sufficiently tight monetary policy. The formulation of monetary policy must consider development in the real and financial sector and treat these sectors as constraints on the policy.Money Supply, Inflation, Growth, Quantity Theory, Monetory Policy, Pakistan

Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

Sectoral Analysis of the Demand for Real Money Balances in Pakistan

The main objective of monetary policy in Pakistan, as in other countries, is to achieve price stability. In order to achieve the objective of stable prices, the State Bank of Pakistan is using M2 definition of money supply as an intermediate target variable to conduct the monetary policy. This choice of target variable is based on the long understanding that only the demand for M2 monetary aggregate is stable in Pakistan. The definition of money aggregates two main sectors of the economy that is business sector and household sector. Theories such as quantity theory, Keynesian and transactions, state that both sectors have diversified behaviour. Money demand behaviour of these sectors largely depends on the different sets of variables. Therefore the aggregation of these sectors is rather poor. Further the research conducted in Pakistan mainly concentrated on the estimation of aggregate money demand function by using annual data. Some of the studies, however, used quarterly data. They have estimated money demand functions by disaggregating data on monetary assets basis, particularly M1 and M2. However, relatively thin literature is available on the estimated money demand function by disaggregating business and household sectors. It is argued that money demand behaviour of different sectors of the economy may be different. In this paper the long-run cointegration relationship and the error correction model of the real demand for money in desegregated, business and personal sector, form are estimated by using quarterly data. Then the estimated error correction models are tested for structural break. The empirical importance of the real demand for money in disaggregate form is that it would provide new insight in the conduct of monetary policy in Pakistan

Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation

Monetary economics provides one of the important tools, that is monetary policy, to deal with the macroeconomic problems of the economy. It is concerned with the supply of money and the demand for money. It is often assumed that the money supply is exogenously determined by the authorities and the demand for real money is determined by the market. The demand for money is of crucial importance in the conduct of monetary policy. It helps to understand macroeconomic activities and to prescribe appropriate policy instruments to deal with macroeconomic problems. The effectiveness of the monetary policy, however, depends on the shape and stability of the estimated demand for money function. Empirical studies of the money demand in Pakistan concentrated on the estimation of aggregate money demand function by using conventional regression analysis. The main criticism against the aggregate models of the money demand is that these models lumped two different sectors of the economy, such as the household sector and the business sector. Further, it is argued that these two sectors have diversified behaviour. Their money demand behaviour is subject to different requirements. Sectoral money demand behaviour is thoroughly investigated in developed counties but a very thin literature on the estimation of money demand function by the business sector in developing countries is available, for example, Unger and Zilberfarb (1980) and Cameron and Qayyum (1994). Econometric methodology of these studies is mainly concerned with the estimation of two types of money demand functions such as long-run static and shortrun partial adjustment mechanism. However, the researchers employing the technique of cointegration in the empirical testing of money demand function have cast serious doubt on the results of these studies.