Delivering the two degree global climate change target using a flexible ratchet framework

<p>Global climate negotiations have been characterized by a divide between developed and developing nations – a split which has served as a persistent barrier to international agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Notable progress in bridging this division was achieved at the 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris through the introduction of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). However, the collective ambition of submitted INDCs falls short of a global 2°C target, requiring an effective ratchet mechanism to review and increase national commitments. Inequitable distribution of additional responsibilities risks re-opening historic divisions between parties. This article presents a flexible ratchet framework which shares mitigation commitments on the basis of per capita equity in line with emerging requirements for a 2°C target. The framework has been designed through convergence between developed and developing nations; developed nation targets are based on an agreed standardized percentage reduction wherever emissions are above per capita equity; developing nations are required to peak emissions at or below per capita equity levels by an agreed convergence date. The proposed framework has the flexibility to be integrated with current INDCs and to evolve in line with shifting estimates of climate sensitivity.</p> <p><b>Policy relevance</b></p> <p>The outcome of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) negotiations in Paris offered mixed results in terms of level of ambition and submitted national commitments. A global agreement to keep average global temperature rise below two degrees was maintained; however, current pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are projected to result in an average warming of close to three degrees. The implementation of a global ratchet mechanism to scale-up national commitments will remain key to closing this ambition gap to reach this two degree target. How this upscaling of responsibility is shared between parties will be a defining discussion point within future negotiations. This study presents a standardized, equity-based framework for how this ratchet mechanism can be implemented – a framework designed to be flexible for evolution in line with better understanding of climate sensitivity, and adaptable for integrations with current INDC proposals.</p

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract Land conversion and changing climate are expected to significantly alter tropical forest hydrology. We used a land surface model integrated with a river routing scheme to analyze the hydrological alterations expected in the Tapajós River basin, a large portion of the Brazilian Amazon, caused by two environmental drivers: climate and land use. The model was forced with two future climate scenarios (years 2026–2045) from the Earth System Model HadGem2‐ES with moderate (+4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing value in the year 2100 with respect to preindustrial levels) and severe (+8.5 W/m2) representative atmospheric carbon dioxide pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways). We tested the sensitivity of our results to the uncertainty in future climate projections by running simulations with IPSL‐CM5 (wettest scenarios) and GISS‐E2 (driest scenarios). Human land use effects on vegetation were evaluated using a limited and an extreme deforestation scenario. Our analysis indicates that climate change is predicted to reduce river flows across seasons (up to 20%) and bring a considerable shift in flow seasonality toward a later onset (nearly 1.5 months) and increase in interannual variability. While land use change partially counteracts the climate‐driven diminishing trend in river flows, it is expected to contribute to a further increase in interannual and intraannual variability. From a water management perspective, the overall reduction of river flows and their increased variability, combined with the shift and the shortening of the wet season, could potentially affect the productivity of the large hydropower systems planned for the region and the growing demand for agricultural and transport expansion

Glucanocellulosic ethanol: The undiscovered biofuel potential in energy crops and marine biomass

Converting biomass to biofuels is a key strategy in substituting fossil fuels to mitigate climate change. Conventional strategies to convert lignocellulosic biomass to ethanol address the fermentation of cellulose-derived glucose. Here we used super-resolution fluorescence microscopy to uncover the nanoscale structure of cell walls in the energy crops maize and Miscanthus where the typical polymer cellulose forms an unconventional layered architecture with the atypical (1, 3)-β-glucan polymer callose. This raised the question about an unused potential of (1, 3)-β-glucan in the fermentation of lignocellulosic biomass. Engineering biomass conversion for optimized (1, 3)-β-glucan utilization, we increased the ethanol yield from both energy crops. The generation of transgenic Miscanthus lines with an elevated (1, 3)-β-glucan content further increased ethanol yield providing a new strategy in energy crop breeding. Applying the (1, 3)-β-glucan-optimized conversion method on marine biomass from brown macroalgae with a naturally high (1, 3)-β-glucan content, we not only substantially increased ethanol yield but also demonstrated an effective co-fermentation of plant and marine biomass. This opens new perspectives in combining different kinds of feedstock for sustainable and efficient biofuel production, especially in coastal regions

The Oceanic Variability Spectrum and Transport Trends

Oceanic meridional transports evaluated over the width of the Pacific Ocean from altimetric observations become incoherent surprisingly rapidly with meridional separation. Even with 15 years of data, surface slopes show no significant coherence beyond 5◦ of latitude separation at any frequency. An analysis of the frequency/zonal-wavenumber spectral density shows a broad continuum of motions at all time and space scales, with a significant excess of energy along a “non-dispersive” line extending between the simple barotropic and first baroclinic mode Rossby waves. It is speculated that much of that excess energy lies with coupled barotropic and first mode Rossby waves. The statistical significance of apparent oceanic transport trends depends upon the existence of a reliable frequency/wavenumber spectrum and for which only a few observational elements now exist.Jet Propulsion Laboratory (U.S.).United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Jason-1 program)National Oceanographic Partnership Program (U.S.

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses

Local is not always better: the impact of climate information on values, behavior and policy support

In the current research, we experimentally examined the effect of providing local or global information about the impacts of climate change on individuals’ perceived importance of climate change and on their willingness to take action to address it, including policy support. We examined these relationships in the context of individuals’ general value orientations. Our findings, from 99 US residents, suggest that different kinds of climate information (local, global, or none) interact with values vis-à-vis our dependent variables. Specifically, while self-transcendent values predict perceived importance and pro-environmental behavior across all three information conditions, the effect on policy support is less clear. Furthermore, we detected a “reactance effect” where individuals with self-enhancing values who read local information thought that climate change was less important and were less willing to engage in pro-environmental behavior and support policy than self-enhancing individuals in the other information conditions. These results suggest that policy makers and public communicators may want to be cognizant of their audience’s general value orientation. Local information may not only be ineffective but may also prove counterproductive with individuals whose value orientations are more self-enhancing than self-transcendent

Graphene membranes for water desalination

Extensive environmental pollution caused by worldwide industrialization and population growth has led to a water shortage. This problem lowers the quality of human life and wastes a large amount of money worldwide each year due to the related consequences. One main solution for this challenge is water purification. State-of-the-art water purification necessitates the implementation of novel materials and technologies that are cost and energy efficient. In this regard, graphene nanomaterials, with their unique physicochemical properties, are an optimum choice. These materials offer extraordinarily high surface area, mechanical durability, atomic thickness, nanosized pores and reactivity toward polar and non-polar water pollutants. These characteristics impart high selectivity and water permeability, and thus provide excellent water purification efficiency. This review introduces the potential of graphene membranes for water desalination. Although literature reviews have mostly concerned graphene's capability for the adsorption and photocatalysis of water pollutants, updated knowledge related to its sieving properties is quite limited.Peer reviewe