FedPseudo: Pseudo value-based Deep Learning Models for Federated Survival Analysis

Survival analysis, time-to-event analysis, is an important problem in healthcare since it has a wide-ranging impact on patients and palliative care. Many survival analysis methods have assumed that the survival data is centrally available either from one medical center or by data sharing from multi-centers. However, the sensitivity of the patient attributes and the strict privacy laws have increasingly forbidden sharing of healthcare data. To address this challenge, the research community has looked at the solution of decentralized training and sharing of model parameters using the Federated Learning (FL) paradigm. In this paper, we study the utilization of FL for performing survival analysis on distributed healthcare datasets. Recently, the popular Cox proportional hazard (CPH) models have been adapted for FL settings; however, due to its linearity and proportional hazards assumptions, CPH models result in suboptimal performance, especially for non-linear, non-iid, and heavily censored survival datasets. To overcome the challenges of existing federated survival analysis methods, we leverage the predictive accuracy of the deep learning models and the power of pseudo values to propose a first-of-its-kind, pseudo value-based deep learning model for federated survival analysis (FSA) called FedPseudo. Furthermore, we introduce a novel approach of deriving pseudo values for survival probability in the FL settings that speeds up the computation of pseudo values. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our pseudo valued-based FL framework achieves similar performance as the best centrally trained deep survival analysis model. Moreover, our proposed FL approach obtains the best results for various censoring settings

Pseudo value-based Deep Neural Networks for Multi-state Survival Analysis

Multi-state survival analysis (MSA) uses multi-state models for the analysis of time-to-event data. In medical applications, MSA can provide insights about the complex disease progression in patients. A key challenge in MSA is the accurate subject-specific prediction of multi-state model quantities such as transition probability and state occupation probability in the presence of censoring. Traditional multi-state methods such as Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimators and Cox-based methods are respectively limited by Markov and proportional hazards assumptions and are infeasible for making subject-specific predictions. Neural ordinary differential equations for MSA relax these assumptions but are computationally expensive and do not directly model the transition probabilities. To address these limitations, we propose a new class of pseudo-value-based deep learning models for multi-state survival analysis, where we show that pseudo values - designed to handle censoring - can be a natural replacement for estimating the multi-state model quantities when derived from a consistent estimator. In particular, we provide an algorithm to derive pseudo values from consistent estimators to directly predict the multi-state survival quantities from the subject's covariates. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our proposed models achieve state-of-the-art results under various censoring settings