Major clinical events, signs and severity assessment scores related to actual survival in patients who died from primary biliary cirrhosis. A long-term historical cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: One of the prognostic methods for survival in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is the Mayo model, with a time-scale limited to 7 years. The aim of our study was to assess how major clinical events, signs, several severity assessment methods and Mayo survival probabilities fit in with actual patient survival, by using yearly observations until 0.5 years before patient death from PBC. METHODOLOGY: Data of 32 patients dying from PBC were collected prior to death at -0.5, -1, -2 etc. years (median: -5 years, range: -16 to -0.5 years). Major events registered were: first occurrence of ascites, upper gastrointestinal bleeding or manifest hepatic encephalopathy and signs, first observation of spider naevi or purpura. Severity assessment methods applied (all with scores and classes) were: Mayo (M), Child-Campbell (C), Pugh-Child (P), Pugh-Child-PBC (PP), 'Child-Pugh' (CP), and Ascites Nutritional State-Child (ANS). Fifty percent survival estimates were calculated from Mayo scores. Severity assessment method variables were: ascites (C, P, PP, CP, ANS), encephalopathy (C, P, PP, CP), nutritional state (C, ANS), edema (M), age (M), serum albumin (M, C, P, PP, CP), bilirubin (C, M, P, PP, CP), and prothrombin time (M, P, PP, CP). RESULTS: In 27 out of 32 patients a major event occurred, always between -6 and -0.5 years (median: -1 year) and, never between -16 and -7 years (p CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of a major event appeared to exclude survival over 6 years. In these final 6 years, Child-Campbell, Mayo and Pugh scores correlated equally well with actual survival and better than Ascites/Nutritional State score. In our PBC patients, Campbell was an excellent alternative for Pugh; for Pugh, the original Child-Turcotte variable limits were fully sufficient