Cost and Returns of Renewable Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparison of Kenya and Ghana

The allocation of finance for the provision of green electricity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) should be informed by two questions. Which generation technologies are financially viable? And which generation technologies are affordable? Our analysis addresses these for Kenya and Ghana by calculating the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR) for a portfolio of renewable energy (RE) technologies under different scenarios. Our results show better fundamentals in Kenya for the successful implementation of renewable energy projects. Wind and geothermal technology offer low-cost electricity and healthy returns on investment. Solar photovoltaics (PV) could be competitive with expensive diesel generation but its current price does not allow for cost recovery. Kenyan feed-in tariffs (FiTs) protect investors against currency devaluation and the off-taker is creditworthy. Ghana’s renewable electricity (except hydro) is expensive in comparison and offers lower returns. This is mainly due to high financing costs and lower-quality RE resources. Additionally, RE investors in Ghana are not protected against further currency devaluation by the existing FiT scheme and there are concerns about the creditworthiness of the off-taker. Policymakers should target these key constraints to affordability and profitability to support a higher penetration of renewables in the country. The role of public finance and public–private partnership is particularly highlighted as a way forward to improve the financial performance of renewable energy in SSA.UK Department for International Development; EPSR

Maximisation of Benefits for the Poor of Investments in Renewable Electricity: A Policy Tool for Project Planning

Energy poverty is a major development issue: nearly 1.2 billion people, or close to one-fifth of the world’s population, have no access to electricity. Close to 85 per cent of them live in rural areas (Banerjee et al. 2013). After falling out of favour in the 1980s, electrification is again seen as central to poverty reduction efforts. Electricity improves users’ quality of life and can enable income generation when used for productive activities, hence supporting an escape from the poverty trap. Where generation comes from renewable sources, it also makes a positive contribution to low-carbon development; for many, this is a classic ‘win-win’ situation. This report uses the evidence collected through a comprehensive literature review to develop a policy tool to maximise the poverty impact of electrification projects. It can be of use for development and climate finance institutions funding renewable energy projects in developing countries, and keen to enhance the poverty impacts of these projects.UK Department for International Developmen

Dynamical mechanism for generation of arrhythmogenic early afterdepolarizations in cardiac myocytes: insights from in silico electrophysiological models

We analyze the dynamical mechanisms underlying the formation of arrhythmogenic early afterdepolarizations (EADs) in two mathematical models of cardiac cellular electrophysiology: the Sato et al. biophysically detailed model of a rabbit ventricular myocyte of dimension 27 and a reduced version of the Luo-Rudy mammalian myocyte model of dimension 3. Based on a comparison of the two models, with detailed bifurcation analysis using spike-counting techniques and continuation methods in the simple model and numerical explorations in the complex model, we locate the point where the first EAD originates in an unstable branch of periodic orbits. These results serve as a basis to propose a conjectured scheme involving a hysteresis mechanism with the creation of alternans and EADs in the unstable branch. This theoretical scheme fits well with electrophysiological experimental data on EAD generation and hysteresis phenomena. Our findings open the door to the development of novel methods for pro-arrhythmia risk prediction related to EAD generation without actual induction of EADs

Factors associated with hospitalisations in chronic conditions deemed avoidable: Ecological study in the Spanish healthcare system

Objectives: Potentially avoidable hospitalisations have been used as a proxy for primary care quality. We aimed to analyse the ecological association between contextual and systemic factors featured in the Spanish healthcare system and the variation in potentially avoidable hospitalisations for a number of chronic conditions. Methods: A cross-section ecological study based on the linkage of administrative data sources from virtually all healthcare areas (n=202) and autonomous communities (n=16) composing the Spanish National Health System was performed. Potentially avoidable hospitalisations in chronic conditions were defined using the Spanish validation of the Agency for Health Research and Quality (AHRQ) preventable quality indicators. Using 2012 data, the ecological association between potentially avoidable hospitalisations and factors featuring healthcare areas and autonomous communities was tested using multilevel negative binomial regression. Results: In 2012, 151 468 admissions were flagged as potentially avoidable in Spain. After adjusting for differences in age, sex and burden of disease, the only variable associated with the outcome was hospitalisation intensity for any cause in previous years (incidence risk ratio 1.19 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.26)). The autonomous community of residence explained a negligible part of the residual unexplained variation (variance 0.01 (SE 0.008)). Primary care supply and activity did not show any association. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the variation in potentially avoidable hospitalisations in chronic conditions at the healthcare area level is a reflection of how intensively hospitals are used in a healthcare area for any cause, rather than of primary care characteristics. Whether other non-studied features at the healthcare area level or primary care level could explain the observed variation remains uncertain

Evaluation of depolarization changes during acute myocardial ischemia by analysis of QRS slopes.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates depolarization changes in acute myocardial ischemia by analysis of QRS slopes. METHODS: In 38 patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention, changes in upward slope between Q and R waves and downward slope between R and S waves (DS) were analyzed. In leads V1 to V3, upward slope of the S wave was additionally analyzed. Ischemia was quantified by myocardial scintigraphy. Also, conventional QRS and ST measures were determined. RESULTS: QRS slope changes correlated significantly with ischemia (for DS: r = 0.71, P < .0001 for extent, and r = 0.73, P < .0001 for severity). Best corresponding correlation for conventional electrocardiogram parameters was the sum of R-wave amplitude change (r = 0.63, P < .0001; r = 0.60, P < .0001) and the sum of ST-segment elevation (r = 0.67, P < .0001; r = 0.73, P < .0001). Prediction of extent and severity of ischemia increased by 12.2% and 7.1% by adding DS to ST. CONCLUSIONS: The downward slope between R and S waves correlates with ischemia and could have potential value in risk stratification in acute ischemia in addition to ST-T analysis