Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)

The assessment of uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling in a changing environment is an important, yet often neglected, task. In an Austrian case study, we investigated the uncertainty cascade in storylines of landslide susceptibility emerging from climate change and parametric landslide model uncertainty. In June 2009, extreme events of heavy thunderstorms occurred in the Styrian Basin, triggering thousands of landslides. Using a storyline approach, we discovered a generally lower landslide susceptibility for the pre-industrial climate, while for the future climate (2071–2100) a potential increase of 35 % in highly susceptible areas (storyline of much heavier rain) may be compensated for by much drier soils (−45 % areas highly susceptible to landsliding). However, the estimated uncertainties in predictions were generally high. While uncertainties related to within-event internal climate model variability were substantially lower than parametric uncertainties in the landslide susceptibility model (ratio of around 0.25), parametric uncertainties were of the same order as the climate scenario uncertainty for the higher warming levels (+3 and +4 K). We suggest that in future uncertainty assessments, an improved availability of event-based landslide inventories and high-resolution soil and precipitation data will help to reduce parametric uncertainties in landslide susceptibility models used to assess the impacts of climate change on landslide hazard and risk.</p

Repeatability of Corticospinal and Spinal Measures during Lengthening and Shortening Contractions in the Human Tibialis Anterior Muscle

Elements of the human central nervous system (CNS) constantly oscillate. In addition, there are also methodological factors and changes in muscle mechanics during dynamic muscle contractions that threaten the stability and consistency of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and perpherial nerve stimulation (PNS) measures

Geographischer Überblick

Die beiden Täler, die im Mittelpunkt dieses Buches stehen, befinden sich in den Hohen Tauern. Das Rauriser Tal (Gemeinde Rauris) liegt nördlich des Tauernhauptkamms im Bundesland Salzburg, das Fraganter Tal (Gemeinde Flattach) südlich des Tauernhauptkamms im Bundesland Kärnten. Aus dieser Nachbarschaft und gleichzeitiger Gegensätzlichkeit ergeben sich vielfältige Spannungsfelder, die eine nähere Betrachtung der beiden Täler zu einer lohnenden Aufgabe machen. Lage des Bearbeitungsgebietes für..

B. Die Landschaft der beiden Täler

B1. Geologie und Geomorphologie Die geologischen Rahmenbedingungen spielen für das Landschaftsbild eine entscheidende Rolle. Verschiedene Gesteinstypen reagieren nämlich sehr unterschiedlich auf die Einflüsse erosiver Kräfte (z. B. Witterung, Fließgewässer, Lawinen, Gletscher). Auch die tektonische Beanspruchung der Gesteine im Zuge von gebirgsbildenden Vorgängen ist, etwa durch die Bildung von Schwächezonen oder die Schrägstellung der Schichten, ein landschaftsprägender Faktor. Daher ist das..

Zwei Alpentäler im Klimawandel

The history of climate change in the valleys near Rauris and Flattach north and south of the Hohe Tauern mountain ridge was investigated in the project “A Tale of Two Valleys”. The story begins long before human settlement and projects into the future. Increasing impact of human activity causes a growing responsibility for the climate on earth. Concurrently precautions are required to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. Change is a fact. Understanding interactions between climate, landscape, and economy is pivotal to meet the challenge

Event-Based Landslide Modeling in the Styrian Basin, Austria: Accounting for Time-Varying Rainfall and Land Cover

In June 2009 and September 2014, the Styrian Basin in Austria was affected by extreme events of heavy thunderstorms, triggering thousands of landslides. Since the relationship between intense rainfall, land cover/land use (LULC), and landslide occurrences is still not fully understood, our objective was to develop a model design that allows to assess landslide susceptibility specifically for past triggering events. We used generalized additive models (GAM) to link land surface, geology, meteorological, and LULC variables to observed slope failures. Accounting for the temporal variation in landslide triggering, we implemented an innovative spatio-temporal approach for landslide absence sampling. We assessed model performance using k-fold cross-validation in space and time to estimate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Furthermore, we analyzed the variable importance and its relationship to landslide occurrence. Our results showed that the models had on average acceptable to outstanding landslide discrimination capabilities (0.81&ndash;0.94 mAUROC in space and 0.72&ndash;0.95 mAUROC in time). Furthermore, meteorological and LULC variables were of great importance in explaining the landslide events (e.g., five-day rainfall 13.6&ndash;17.8% mean decrease in deviance explained), confirming their usefulness in landslide event analysis. Based on the present findings, future studies may assess the potential of this approach for developing future storylines of slope instability based on climate and LULC scenarios

Zwei Alpentäler im Klimawandel

Die Geschichte der Veränderungen im Mölltal und in der Rauris stehen im Mittelpunkt des Buchs "Zwei Alpentäler im Klimawandel“. Sie beginnt in der Vorvorvergangenheit, lange bevor der Mensch seinen Einfluss auf Klima und Landschaft geltend machen konnte, und endet in der Zukunft. Der Mensch hat die Mitregentschaft über Klima und Umwelt übernommen, er hat nun die Verantwortung zu tragen und vernünftige Maßnahmen zu setzen, damit das Klima nicht aus der Bahn gerät. Gleichzeitig hat er Vorkehrungen gegenüber etwaigen negativen Folgen einer Änderung zu treffen. Dazu ist es notwendig, Wechselwirkungen zwischen Klima, Landschaft und Wirtschaft umfassend zu verstehen und lokal- und regionalspezifische Herausforderungen zu erkennen

Zwei Alpentäler im Klimawandel

Die Geschichte der Veränderungen im Mölltal und in der Rauris stehen im Mittelpunkt des Buchs "Zwei Alpentäler im Klimawandel“. Sie beginnt in der Vorvorvergangenheit, lange bevor der Mensch seinen Einfluss auf Klima und Landschaft geltend machen konnte, und endet in der Zukunft. Der Mensch hat die Mitregentschaft über Klima und Umwelt übernommen, er hat nun die Verantwortung zu tragen und vernünftige Maßnahmen zu setzen, damit das Klima nicht aus der Bahn gerät. Gleichzeitig hat er Vorkehrungen gegenüber etwaigen negativen Folgen einer Änderung zu treffen. Dazu ist es notwendig, Wechselwirkungen zwischen Klima, Landschaft und Wirtschaft umfassend zu verstehen und lokal- und regionalspezifische Herausforderungen zu erkennen

Waste disposal site location, Piedmont Region, Italy, 1:500,000 scale inSpecial purpose mapping for waste disposal sites Report of IAEG Commission 1: Engineering Geological Maps

This report results from work that was first proposed to a meeting of the International Association of Engineering Geology (IAEG), Commission No.1 held in Bratislava (Slovakia) in 1992. Following the publication of the Commission’s report on Engineering Geological Maps (Engineering geological maps (1976) and reports on the description and classification of rock and soil and on recommended symbols for engineering geological mapping (Bull. Int. Assoc. Eng. Geol. 24 (1981) 235; see also 227), a period of consolidation ensued in which the approaches suggested in those reports were implemented. The decision to prepare an additional report reflected the increasing need to apply these approaches to a range of specific activities. The background to the report was provided in a paper by two of the authors presented at the IAEG conference in Athens in 1997 (Proc Int. Symp. Int. Assoc. Eng. Geol. Environ. 2 (1997) 2103)