Using the general equilibrium growth model to study great depressions: a reply to Temin

Three of the arguments made by Temin (2008) in his review of Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century are demonstrably wrong: that the treatment of the data in the volume is cursory; that the definition of great depressions is too general and, in particular, groups slow growth experiences in Latin America in the 1980s with far more severe great depressions in Europe in the 1930s; and that the book is an advertisement for the real business cycle methodology. Without these three arguments — which are the results of obvious conceptual and arithmetical errors, including copying the wrong column of data from a source — his review says little more than that he does not think it appropriate to apply our dynamic general equilibrium methodology to the study of great depressions, and he does not like the conclusion that we draw: that a successful model of a great depression needs to be able to account for the effects of government policy on productivity.

Elliptical slice sampling

Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with multivariate Gaussian priors. Its key properties are: 1) it has simple, generic code applicable to many models, 2) it has no free parameters, 3) it works well for a variety of Gaussian process based models. These properties make our method ideal for use while model building, removing the need to spend time deriving and tuning updates for more complex algorithms.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, appearing in AISTATS 2010 (JMLR: W&CP volume 6). Differences from first submission: some minor edits in response to feedback

Technology capital transfer

It is widely believed that an important factor underlying the rapid growth in China is increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and the transfer of foreign technology capital, which is accumulated know-how from investment in research and development (R&D), brands, and organizations that is not specific to a plant. In this paper, we study two channels through which FDI can contribute to upgrading of the stock of technology capital: knowledge spillovers and appropriation. Knowledge spillovers lead to new ideas that do not directly compete or devalue the foreign affiliate’s stock. Appropriation, on the other hand, implies a redistribution of property rights over patents and trademarks; the gain to domestic companies comes at a loss to the multinational company (MNC). In this paper we build these sources of technology capital transfer into the framework developed by McGrattan and Prescott (2009, 2010) and introduce an endogenously-chosen intensity margin for operating technology capital in order to capture the trade-offs MNCs face when expanding their markets internationally. We show that economic outcomes differ dramatically depending on the source of greater openness and the channel with which technology capital transfer is operative.

Preregistration house officers in general practice: review of evidence

OBJECTIVES: To examine the strengths and weaknesses of the national and local schemes for preregistration house officers to spend four months in general practice, to identify any added value from such placements, and to examine the impact on career choices. DESIGN: Review of all studies that reported on placements of preregistration house officers in general practice. SETTING: 19 accounts of preregistration house officers’ experience in general practice, ranging from single case reports to a national evaluation study, in a variety of locations in Scotland and England. PARTICIPANTS: Views of 180 preregistration house officers, 45 general practitioner trainers, and 105 consultant trainers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Main findings or themes weighted according to number of studies reporting them and weighted for sample size. RESULTS: The studies were unanimous about the educational benefits of the placements. The additional learning included communication skills, social and psychological factors in illness, patient centred consultations, broadening of knowledge base, and dealing with uncertainty about diagnosis and referral. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the reported benefits and recommendations of the scheme, it is not expanding. General practitioner trainers reported additional supervision that was unremunerated. The reforms of the senior house officer grade may resolve this problem by offering the placements to senior house officers, who require less supervision

Investigation of the current status of anticoagulant resistance in UK Norway rats by VKORC1 genotyping

Clarke, D.J., Prescott, C.V

Is routine pathological examination required in South African children undergoing adenotonsillectomy?

Objective. We aimed to determine the incidence of abnormal pathological findings in the tonsils and/or adenoids of children undergoing tonsillectomy and/or adenoidectomy, and the incidence of tuberculosis of the tonsils and adenoids; suggest criteria to identify children at risk for adenotonsillar tuberculosis; and investigate the association between HIV and adenotonsillar abnormality, the cost-effectiveness of routine pathological examination of adenotonsillectomy specimens, and criteria to decide which specimens to send for histological examination. Methods. We undertook an 8-month prospective study on all children (≤12 years) undergoing consecutive tonsillectomy or adenotonsillectomy (T&A) at Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital. Patients were assessed pre-operatively and tonsil sizes graded pre- and intra-operatively. Blood was taken for HIV testing, and all tonsils and adenoids were examined histologically. A cost-benefit analysis was done to determine the cost-effectiveness of adenotonsillectomy routine pathology. Results. A total of 344 tonsils were analysed from 172 children (102 boys, 70 girls); 1 patient had nasopharyngeal tuberculosis, and 1 lymphoma of the tonsils; 13 (7.6%) patients had clinically asymmetrically enlarged tonsils but no significant abnormal pathological finding. The average cost of detecting a clinically significant abnormality was R22 744 (R45 488 ÷ 2 abnormalities). Conclusions. The following criteria could improve cost-effectiveness of pathological examination of adenotonsillectomy specimens: positive tuberculosis contact at home, systemic symptoms of fever and weight loss, cervical lymphadenopathy >3 cm, suspicious nasopharyngeal appearance, HIV-positive patient, rapid tonsillar enlargement or significant tonsillar asymmetry. On our evidence, routine pathological investigation for South African children does not seem to be justified

Rejection thresholds (RjT) of sweet likers and dislikers

Sweetness is generally a desirable taste, however consumers can be grouped into sweet likers and dislikers according to optimally preferred sucrose concentrations. Understanding the levels of sweetness in products that are acceptable and unacceptable to both consumer groups is important to product development and for influencing dietary habits. The concentrations at which sucrose decreases liking (the rejection threshold; RjT) in liquid and semi-solid matrices were investigated in this study. Thirty six consumers rated their liking of 5 sucrose aqueous solutions; this identified 36% sweet likers (SL) whose liking ratings increased with increasing sucrose and 64% sweet dislikers (SD) whose liking ratings decreased above 6% (w/v) sucrose. We hypothesized that SL and SD would have different RjT for sucrose in products. This was tested by preparing 8 levels of sucrose in orange juice and orange jelly and presenting each against the lowest level in forced choice preference tests. In orange juice, as sucrose increased from 33g/L to 75g/L the proportion of people preferring the sweeter sample increased in both groups. However, at higher sucrose levels, the proportion of consumers preferring the sweet sample decreased. For SD, a RjT was reached at 380 g/L, whereas a significant RjT for SL was not reached. RjT in jelly were not reached as the sweetness in orange jelly was significantly lower than for orange juice (p<0.001). Despite statistically significant differences in rated sweetness between SL and SD (p=0.019), the extent of difference between the two groups was minor. The results implied that sweet liker status was not substantially related to differences in sweetness perception. Self-reported dietary intake of carbohydrate, sugars and sucrose were not significantly affected by sweet liker status. However the failure to find an effect may be due to the small sample size and future studies within a larger, more representative population sample are justifiable from the results of this study