Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men

Understanding infectious disease dynamics and the effect on prevalence and incidence is crucial for public health policies. Disease incidence and prevalence are typically not observed directly and increasingly are estimated through the synthesis of indirect information from multiple data sources. We demonstrate how an evidence synthesis approach to the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in England and Wales can be extended to infer the underlying HIV incidence. Diverse time series of data can be used to obtain yearly “snapshots” (with associated uncertainty) of the proportion of the population in 4 compartments: not at risk, susceptible, HIV positive but undiagnosed, and diagnosed HIV positive. A multistate model for the infection and diagnosis processes is then formulated by expressing the changes in these proportions by a system of differential equations. By parameterizing incidence in terms of prevalence and contact rates, HIV transmission is further modeled. Use of additional data or prior information on demographics, risk behavior change and contact parameters allows simultaneous estimation of the transition rates, compartment prevalences, contact rates, and transmission probabilities

Situation of HIV infections and STIs in the United Kingdom in 2007.

In the United Kingdom (UK) in 2007, an estimated 77,400 persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of whom 28% are unaware of their infection. A total of 7,734 persons were newly diagnosed with HIV infection in 2007, of which 31% were diagnosed late. This highlights the need for wider HIV testing, especially in those areas with a high diagnosed prevalence, as recommended in recent national guidelines. Among newly diagnosed cases of HIV in 2007, 41% acquired their infection through sex between men (four in five of whom acquired their infection in the UK) and 55% through heterosexual contact (four in five of whom acquired their infection abroad, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa). Young persons aged 16 to 24 years are disproportionally affected by sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) accounting for 65% of genital chlamydia infections, 50% of cases of genital warts and 50% of cases of gonorrhoea that were diagnosed in 2007

An evidence synthesis approach to estimating the incidence of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate, using Bayesian evidence synthesis, the age-group-specific annual incidence of symptomatic infection with seasonal influenza in the Netherlands over the period 2005-2007. METHODS: The Netherlands population and age group distribution for 2006 defined the base population. The number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases was estimated from sentinel surveillance data and adjusted for underascertainment using the estimated proportion of ILI cases that do not consult a general practitioner. The estimated number of symptomatic influenza (SI) cases was based on indirect evidence from the surveillance of ILI cases and the proportions of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2006/7 respiratory years. In scenario analysis, the number of SI cases prevented by increasing vaccination uptake within the 65 +  age group was estimated. RESULTS: The overall symptomatic infection attack rate (SIAR) over the period 2005-2007 was estimated at 2·5% (95% credible interval [CI]: 2·1-3·2%); 410 200 SI cases (95% CI: 338 500-518 600) were estimated to occur annually. Age-group-specific SIARs were estimated for <5 years at 4·9% (2·1-13·7%), for 5-14 years at 3·0% (2·0-4·7%), for 15-44 years at 2·6% (2·1-3·2%), for 45-64 years at 1·9% (1·4-2·5%) and for 65 +  years at 1·7% (1·0-3·0%). Under assumed vaccination uptake increases of 5% and 15%, 1970 and 5310 SI cases would be averted. CONCLUSIONS: By synthesising the available information on seasonal influenza and ILI from diverse sources, the annual extent of symptomatic infection can be derived. These estimates are useful for assessing the burden of seasonal influenza and for guiding vaccination policy

HIV prevalence and undiagnosed infection among a community sample of gay and bisexual men in Scotland, 2005-2011: implications for HIV testing policy and prevention

&lt;b&gt;Objective&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; To examine HIV prevalence, HIV testing behaviour, undiagnosed infection and risk factors for HIV positivity among a community sample of gay men in Scotland.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Cross-sectional survey of gay and bisexual men attending commercial gay venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh, Scotland with voluntary anonymous HIV testing of oral fluid samples in 2011. A response rate of 65.2% was achieved (1515 participants).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; HIV prevalence (4.8%, 95% confidence interval, CI 3.8% to 6.2%) remained stable compared to previous survey years (2005 and 2008) and the proportion of undiagnosed infection among HIV-positive men (25.4%) remained similar to that recorded in 2008. Half of the participants who provided an oral fluid sample stated that they had had an HIV test in the previous 12 months; this proportion is significantly higher when compared to previous study years (50.7% versus 33.8% in 2005, p&#60;0.001). Older age (&#62;25 years) was associated with HIV positivity (1.8% in those &#60;25 versus 6.4% in older ages group) as was a sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis within the previous 12 months (adjusted odds ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.09–4.14). There was no significant association between age and having an STI or age and any of the sexual behaviours recorded.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; HIV transmission continues to occur among gay and bisexual men in Scotland. Despite evidence of recent testing within the previous six months, suggesting a willingness to test, the current opt-out policy may have reached its limit with regards to maximising HIV test uptake. Novel strategies are required to improve regular testing opportunities and more frequent testing as there are implications for the use of other biomedical HIV interventions.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

Changes in severity of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in England: a Bayesian evidence synthesis

Objective To assess the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in England during the two waves of activity up to end of February 2010 by estimating the probabilities of cases leading to severe events and the proportion of the population infected

Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND: Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009. METHODS: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis methods were applied to combine all available relevant data sources - both direct and indirect - that inform the epidemiological parameters of interest. RESULTS: An estimated 454,000 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 392,000 to 535,000) HCV antibody-positive individuals were living in Malaysia in 2009; this represents 2.5% (95% CrI: 2.2-3.0%) of the population aged 15-64 years. Among males of Malay ethnicity, for 77% (95% CrI: 69-85%) the route of probable transmission was active or a previous history of injecting drugs. The corresponding proportions were smaller for male Chinese and Indian/other ethnic groups (40% and 71%, respectively). The estimated prevalence in females of all ethnicities was 1% (95% CrI: 0.6 to 1.4%); 92% (95% CrI: 88 to 95%) of infections were attributable to non-drug injecting routes of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent number of persons living with HCV infection in Malaysia is estimated to be very high. Low/middle income countries often lack a comprehensive evidence base; however, evidence synthesis methods can assist in filling the data gaps required for the development of effective policy to address the future public health and economic burden due to HCV. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0564-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods.An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia

Male predominance of pneumonia and hospitalization in pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) disproportionately affects different age groups. The purpose of the current study was to describe the age and gender difference of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) cases that lead to pneumonia, hospitalization or ICU admission.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected retrospectively between May 2009 and December 2009. All of the diagnoses of H1N1 were confirmed by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the study period there were 3402 cases of RT-PCR positive H1N1, among which 1812 were males and 1626 were adults (> 15 years of age). 6% (206/3402) of patients required hospitalization, 3.6% (122/3402) had infiltrates on chest radiographs, and 0.70% (24/3402) were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). The overall fatality rate was 0.1% (4/3402). The rate of hospitalization was sharply increased in patients ≥ 50 years of age especially in male. Out of 122 pneumonia patients, 68.8% (84 patients) were male. Among the patients admitted to the ICU, 70.8% (17 patients) were male. Approximately 1 of 10 H1N1-infected patients admitted to the ICU were ≥ 70 years of age.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Among the confirmed cases of H1N1, the ICU admission rate was < 1% and the case fatality rate was 0.1%. Male had a significantly higher rate of pneumonia and hospital admission. These findings should be taken into consideration when developing vaccination and treatment strategies.</p