Complex responses to movement-based disease control: when livestock trading helps

Livestock disease controls are often linked to movements between farms, for example, via quarantine and pre- or post-movement testing. Designing effective controls, therefore, benefits from accurate assessment of herd-to-herd transmission. Household models of human infections make use of R*, the number of groups infected by an initial infected group, which is a metapopulation level analogue of the basic reproduction number R0 that provides a better characterization of disease spread in a metapopulation. However, existing approaches to calculate R* do not account for individual movements between locations which means we lack suitable tools for livestock systems. We address this gap using next-generation matrix approaches to capture movements explicitly and introduce novel tools to calculate R* in any populations coupled by individual movements. We show that depletion of infectives in the source group, which hastens its recovery, is a phenomenon with important implications for design and efficacy of movement-based controls. Underpinning our results is the observation that R* peaks at intermediate livestock movement rates. Consequently, under movement-based controls, infection could be controlled at high movement rates but persist at intermediate rates. Thus, once control schemes are present in a livestock system, a reduction in movements can counterintuitively lead to increased disease prevalence. We illustrate our results using four important livestock diseases (bovine viral diarrhoea, bovine herpes virus, Johne's disease and Escherichia coli O157) that each persist across different movement rate ranges with the consequence that a change in livestock movements could help control one disease, but exacerbate another

Implementation and evaluation of a new methane model within a dynamic global vegetation model: LPJ-WHyMe v1.3.1

For the first time, a model that simulates methane emissions from northern peatlands is incorporated directly into a dynamic global vegetation model. The model, LPJ-WHyMe (LPJ <B>W</B>etland <B>Hy</B>drology and <B>Me</B>thane), was previously modified in order to simulate peatland hydrology, permafrost dynamics and peatland vegetation. LPJ-WHyMe simulates methane emissions using a mechanistic approach, although the use of some empirical relationships and parameters is unavoidable. The model simulates methane production, three pathways of methane transport (diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition) and methane oxidation. A sensitivity test was conducted to identify the most important factors influencing methane emissions, followed by a parameter fitting exercise to find the best combination of parameter values for individual sites and over all sites. A comparison of model results to observations from seven sites resulted in normalised root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 0.40 to 1.15 when using the best site parameter combinations and 0.68 to 1.42 when using the best overall parameter combination

Avaliação de cor e textura de filés de frango in natura embalados em atmosfera modificada gasosa.

Projeto: 11.11.11.111

Colorectal cancer screening and the role of community pharmacy

Access to colorectal cancer screening varies across the UK. This article describes the various tests and how community pharmacists can promote them

Factors associated with adverse clinical outcomes among obstetrics trainees.

OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to determine whether UK obstetrics trainees transitioning from directly to indirectly supervised practice have a higher likelihood of recording adverse patient outcomes in operative deliveries compared with other indirectly supervised trainees, and to examine whether performing more procedures under direct supervision is associated with fewer adverse outcomes in initial practice under indirect supervision. METHODS: We examined all deliveries (13 856) conducted by obstetricians at a single centre over 6 years (2008-2013). Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to compare estimated blood loss (EBL), maternal trauma, umbilical arterial pH, delayed neonatal respiration, failed instrumental delivery, and critical incidents for trainees in their first indirectly supervised year with those for trainees in all other years of indirect supervision. Outcomes for trainees in their first indirectly supervised 3 months were compared with their outcomes for the remainder of the year. Linear regression was used to examine the relationship between number of procedures performed under direct supervision and initial outcomes under indirect supervision. RESULTS: Trainees in their first indirectly supervised year had a higher likelihood of recording EBL of > 2 L at any delivery (odds ratio [OR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.64; p  1 L (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.88-3.20; p  1 L (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Obstetrics trainees in their first year of indirectly supervised practice have a higher likelihood of recording immediate adverse delivery outcomes, which are primarily maternal rather than neonatal. Undertaking more directly supervised procedures prior to transitioning to indirectly supervised practice may reduce adverse outcomes, which suggests that experience is a key consideration in obstetrics training programme design.ARA is supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) grant for Infrastructure for Population Research at Princeton University (Grant R24HD047879). During the initial preparation of this manuscript she was also supported by an NICHD Individual Predoctoral Fellowship (Grant F31HD079182) and an NICHD infrastructure grant awarded to the Population Research Center at The University of Texas at Austin (Grant R24HD042849).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/medu.12741

Dynamic monitoring of the shelf life of Cobia (Rachycentron canadum): a study on the applicability of a smart photochromic indicator.

To ensure the marketing of fresh fish-based products, it is necessary to develop fast methods that assess its freshness in real time. This study therefore evaluated the applicability of a photochromic time?temperature indicator (TTI) to monitor the time and temperature history during the period of validity of the whole fish of the cobia specimen stored in ice. The TTI response was both visibly interpreted as well as adaptable to measurement using suitable equipment. The results showed that the smart indicator activated during 6 s of ultraviolet light showed a similar rate of deterioration of the analysed product visual response, proving to be a dynamic shelf life indicator that can assure consumers the ultimate quality point of the entire cobia easily, cheaply and accurately