Prediction Model Development and Validation of 12-Year Incident Edentulism of Older Adults in the United States

Introduction: Edentulism affects health and quality of life. Objectives: Identify factors that predict older adults becoming edentulous over 12 y in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) by developing and validating a prediction model. Methods: The HRS includes data on a representative sample of US adults aged >50 y. Selection criteria included participants in 2006 and 2018 who answered, "Have you lost all of your upper and lower natural permanent teeth" Persons who answered "no" in 2006 and "yes" in 2018 experienced incident edentulism. Excluding 2006 edentulous, the data set (n = 4,288) was split into selection (70%, n = 3,002) and test data (30%, n = 1,286), and Monte Carlo cross-validation was applied to 500 random partitions of the selection data into training (n = 1,716) and validation (n = 1,286) data sets. Fitted logistic models from the training data sets were applied to the validation data sets to obtain area under the curve (AUC) for 32 candidate models. Six variables were included in all models (age, race/ethnicity, gender, education, smoking, last dental visit) while all combinations of 5 variables (income, alcohol use, self-rated health, loneliness, cognitive status) were considered for inclusion. The best parsimonious model based on highest mean AUC was fitted to the selection data set to obtain a final prediction equation. It was applied to the test data to estimate AUC and 95% confidence interval using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Results: From 2006 to 2018, 9.7% of older adults became edentulous. The 2006 mean (SD) age was 66.7 (8.7) for newly edentulous and 66.3 (8.4) for dentate (P = 0.31). The baseline 6-variable model mean AUC was 0.740. The 7-variable model with cognition had AUC = 0.749 and test data AUC = 0.748 (95% confidence interval, 0.715?0.781), modestly improving prediction. Negligible improvement was gained from adding more variables.Conclusion:Cognition information improved the 12-y prediction of becoming edentulous beyond the modifiable risk factors of smoking and dental care use, as well as nonmodifiable demographic factors.Knowledge Transfer Statement:This prediction modeling and validation study identifies cognition as well as modifiable (dental care use, smoking) and nonmodifiable factors (race, ethnicity, gender, age, education) associated with incident complete tooth loss in the United States. This information is useful for the public, dental care providers, and health policy makers in improving approaches to preventive care, oral and general health, and quality of life for older adults

Log-linear models for mutations in the HIV genome

We discuss a general application of categorical data analysis to mutations along the HIV genome. We consider a multidimensional table for several positions at the same time. Due to the complexity of the multidimensional table, we may collapse it by pooling some categories. However, the association between the remaining variables may not be the same as before collapsing. We discuss the collapsibility of tables and the change in the meaning of parameters after collapsing categories. We also address this problem with a log-linear model. We present a parameterization with the consensus output as the reference cell as is appropriate to explain genomic mutations in HIV. We also consider five null hypotheses and some classical methods to address them. We illustrate methods for six positions along the HIV genome, through consideration of all triples of positions

The Nursing Home Pneumonia Risk Index: A Simple, Valid MDS-Based Method of Identifying 6-Month Risk for Pneumonia and Mortality

Background Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of hospitalization and death for nursing home (NH) residents; however, diagnosis is often delayed because classic signs of infection are not present. We sought to identify NH residents at high risk for pneumonia, to identify persons to target for more intensive surveillance and preventive measures. Methods Based on a literature review, we identified key risk factors for pneumonia and compiled them for use as prediction tool, limiting risk factors to those available on the Minimum Data Set (MDS). Next, we tested the tool's ability to predict 6-month pneumonia incidence and mortality rates in a sample of 674 residents from 7 NHs, evaluating it both as a continuous and a dichotomous variable, and applying both logistic regression and survival analysis to calculate estimates. Results NH Pneumonia Risk Index scores ranged from −1 to 6, with a mean of 2.1, a median of 2, and a mode of 2. For the outcome of pneumonia, a 1-point increase in the index was associated with a risk odds ratio of 1.26 (P =.038) or a hazard ratio of 1.24 (P =.037); using it as a dichotomous variable (≤2 vs ≥3), the corresponding figures were a risk odds ratio of 1.78 (P =.045) and a hazard ratio of 1.82 (P =.025). For the outcome of mortality, a 1-point increase in the NH Pneumonia Risk Index was associated with a risk odds ratio of 1.58 (P =.002) and a hazard ratio of 1.45 (P =.013); using the index as a dichotomous variable, the corresponding figures were a risk odds ratio of 3.71 (P <.001) and a hazard ratio of 3.29 (P =.001). Conclusions The NH Pneumonia Risk Index can be used by NH staff to identify residents for whom to apply especially intensive preventive measures and surveillance. Because of its strong association with mortality, the index may also be valuable in care planning and discussion of advance directives

Alteration of PTGS2 Promoter Methylation in Chronic Periodontitis

Levels of prostaglandin E2 and the prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase-2 (PTGS2, or COX-2) increase in actively progressing periodontal lesions, but decrease in chronic disease. We hypothesized that chronic inflammation is associated with altered DNA methylation levels within the PTGS2 promoter, with effects on COX-2 mRNA expression. PTGS2 promoter methylation levels from periodontally inflamed gingival biopsies showed a 5.06-fold increase as compared with non-inflamed samples (p = 0.03), and the odds of methylation in a CpG site in the inflamed gingival group is 4.46 times higher than in the same site in the non-inflamed group (p = 0.016). The level of methylation at −458 bp was inversely associated with transcriptional levels of PTGS2 (RT-PCR) (p = 0.01). Analysis of the data suggests that, in chronically inflamed tissues, there is a hypermethylation pattern of the PTGS2 promoter in association with a lower level of PTGS2 transcription, consistent with a dampening of COX-2 expression in chronic periodontitis. These findings suggest that the chronic persistence of the biofilm and inflammation may be associated with epigenetic changes in local tissues at the biofilm-gingival interface

Adolescent Experiences of Violence Victimizations Among Minors Who Exchange Sex/Experience Minor Sex Trafficking

This work investigates the associations between experiences of domestic minor sex trafficking and adolescent interpersonal violence victimizations, including intimate partner violence (IPV) and community violence. Abuse and violence in childhood are commonly proposed as risk factors for domestic minor sex trafficking. However, less is known about how interpersonal violence victimizations in adolescence connect to domestic minor sex trafficking experiences. The poly-victimization framework provides a means to understand domestic minor sex trafficking as a type of violence amid a web of additional interconnected violence victimizations. Efforts to better understand the interpersonal violence experienced by survivors of domestic minor sex trafficking are valuable in contextualizing trafficking experiences for adolescents. Data from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a population-based sample of adolescents in the United States (n = 12,605) were used to examine experiences of domestic minor sex trafficking for minor respondents, as measured through questions about exchanging sex for money or drugs. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to estimate the associations between domestic minor sex trafficking and IPV or community violence, while controlling for demographic variables and adolescent risk behaviors. Minors who experience community violence had significantly greater odds of having exchanged sex (aOR: 1.86; 95% CI: 1.32 -2.64). However, IPV was not significantly associated with minors’ experiences of sex exchange (aOR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.85 -1.54). Alcohol or drug use (aOR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.32 -2.65) and having run away (aOR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.53 -2.72) were also significantly associated with minor sex exchange. As experiences of domestic minor sex trafficking were significantly associated with community violence victimizations, prevention and intervention efforts targeting youth at high risk for or survivors of domestic minor sex trafficking should consider how community violence victimizations impact these adolescent populations, and programming/messaging should be adjusted to account for these additional violence victimizations

Revisiting the X:BOT Naltrexone Clinical Trial Using a Comprehensive Survival Analysis

Objectives This paper illustrates survival models for analysis of trials of substance use treatment programs. It uses public release data from a study of extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX), relative to buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX). Methods We used publicly available data from the X:BOT trial (n = 570), which compared XR-NTX to BUP-NX on 2 efficacy outcomes (opioid relapse, use of nonprescribed opioids; positive opioid urine test) and 1 safety outcome (overdose). Intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol approaches were implemented using survival models that included treatment-by-time interactions. Results Consistent with the original trial findings, 72% of XR-NTX and 94% of BUP-NX subjects initiated treatment; the ITT hazard ratio for XR-NTX relative to BUP-NX was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.73; P < 0.01) for opioid relapse and 1.31 (1.07, 1.60; P = 0.01) for positive urine test. Using treatment-by-time interactions, we examined the time-dependent effect of XR-NTX and found an elevated ITT overdose hazard ratio of 2.4 (1.1, 5.3; P = 0.03) overall and 3.8 (1.2, 11.6; P = 0.02) during the study treatment phase. This result (28 overdoses overall; 17 overdoses during the study treatment phase) contrasts with the previous analysis, which reported minimal differences in overdose between XR-NTX and BUP-NX. Conclusions An advantage of using time-dependent Cox models is its ability to isolate effects during specific periods. In general, our survival analyses concur with the conclusions of Lee et al (2018) for the efficacy outcomes, which demonstrated superiority of BUP-NX. In contrast to the original report, our analysis indicates a greater risk of overdose for XR-NTX, predominantly during the study treatment phase. Further investigation of this finding is a pressing research priority

A 2-Year Pragmatic Trial of Antibiotic Stewardship in 27 Community Nursing Homes

OBJECTIVES: To determine if antibiotic prescribing in community nursing homes (NHs) can be reduced by a multicomponent antibiotic stewardship intervention implemented by medical providers and nursing staff and whether implementation is more effective if performed by a NH chain or a medical provider group. DESIGN: Two-year quality improvement pragmatic implementation trial with two arms (NH chain and medical provider group). SETTING: A total of 27 community NHs in North Carolina that are typical of NHs statewide, conducted before announcement of the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services antibiotic stewardship mandate. PARTICIPANTS: Nursing staff and medical care providers in the participating NHs. INTERVENTION: Standardized antibiotic stewardship quality improvement program, including training modules for nurses and medical providers, posters, algorithms, communication guidelines, quarterly information briefs, an annual quality improvement report, an informational brochure for residents and families, and free continuing education credit. MEASUREMENTS: Antibiotic prescribing rates per 1000 resident days overall and by infection type; rate of urine test ordering; and incidence of Clostridium difficile and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections. RESULTS: Systemic antibiotic prescription rates decreased from baseline by 18% at 12 months (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.98) and 23% at 24 months (IRR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.65-0.90). A 10% increase in the proportion of residents with the medical director as primary physician was associated with a 4% reduction in prescribing (IRR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.92-0.99). Incidence of C. difficile and MRSA infections, hospitalizations, and hospital readmissions did not change significantly. No adverse events from antibiotic nonprescription were reported. Estimated 2-year implementation costs per NH, exclusive of medical provider time, ranged from $354 to$3653. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic stewardship programs can be successfully disseminated in community NHs through either NH administration or medical provider groups and can achieve significant reductions in antibiotic use for at least 2 years. Medical director involvement is an important element of program success

Tooth-surface-specific Effects of Xylitol: Randomized Trial Results

The Xylitol for Adult Caries Trial was a three-year, double-blind, multi-center, randomized clinical trial that evaluated the effectiveness of xylitol vs. placebo lozenges in the prevention of dental caries in caries-active adults. The purpose of this secondary analysis was to investigate whether xylitol lozenges had a differential effect on cumulative caries increments on different tooth surfaces. Participants (ages 21-80 yrs) with at least one follow-up visit (n = 620) were examined at baseline, 12, 24, and 33 months. Negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for xylitol’s differential effect on cumulative caries increments on root and coronal surfaces and, among coronal surfaces, on smooth (buccal and lingual), occlusal, and proximal surfaces. Participants in the xylitol arm developed 40% fewer root caries lesions (0.23 D2FS/year) than those in the placebo arm (0.38 D2FS/year; IRR = 0.60; 95% CI [0.44, 0.81]; p < .001). There was no statistically significant difference between xylitol and control participants in the incidence of smooth-surface caries (p = .100), occlusal-surface caries (p = .408), or proximal-surface caries (p = .159). Among these caries-active adults, xylitol appears to have a caries-preventive effect on root surfaces (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00393055)

Cohort profile: Zoe 2.0—a community-based genetic epidemiologic study of early childhood oral health

Early childhood caries (ECC) is an aggressive form of dental caries occurring in the first five years of life. Despite its prevalence and consequences, little progress has been made in its prevention and even less is known about individuals’ susceptibility or genomic risk factors. The genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ECC (“ZOE 2.0”) is a community-based, multi-ethnic, cross-sectional, genetic epidemiologic study seeking to address this knowledge gap. This paper describes the study’s design, the cohort’s demographic profile, data domains, and key oral health outcomes. Between 2016 and 2019, the study enrolled 8059 3–5-year-old children attending public preschools in North Carolina, United States. Participants resided in 86 of the state’s 100 counties and racial/ethnic minorities predominated—for example, 48% (n = 3872) were African American, 22% white, and 20% (n = 1611) were Hispanic/Latino. Seventy-nine percent (n = 6404) of participants underwent clinical dental examinations yielding ECC outcome measures—ECC (defined at the established caries lesion threshold) prevalence was 54% and the mean number of decayed, missing, filled surfaces due to caries was eight. Nearly all (98%) examined children provided sufficient DNA from saliva for genotyping. The cohort’s community-based nature and rich data offer excellent opportunities for addressing important clinical, epidemiologic, and biological questions in early childhood