Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake

The Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude M_w > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that ~30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an M_w = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 M_w = 8.7 Nias–Simeulue earthquake

Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the Application to Geodetic Time Series Analysis

The time evolution of geophysical phenomena can be characterised by stochastic time series. The stochastic nature of the signal stems from the geophysical phenomena involved and any noise, which may be due to, e.g., un-modelled effects or measurement errors. Until the 1990's, it was usually assumed that white noise could fully characterise this noise. However, this was demonstrated to be not the case and it was proven that this assumption leads to underestimated uncertainties of the geophysical parameters inferred from the geodetic time series. Therefore, in order to fully quantify all the uncertainties as robustly as possible, it is imperative to estimate not only the deterministic but also the stochastic parameters of the time series. In this regard, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method can provide a sample of the distribution function of all parameters, including those regarding the noise, e.g., spectral index and amplitudes. After presenting the MCMC method and its implementation in our MCMC software we apply it to synthetic and real time series and perform a cross-evaluation using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) as implemented in the CATS software. Several examples as to how the MCMC method performs as a parameter estimation method for geodetic time series are given in this chapter. These include the applications to GPS position time series, superconducting gravity time series and monthly mean sea level (MSL) records, which all show very different stochastic properties. The impact of the estimated parameter uncertainties on sub-sequentially derived products is briefly demonstrated for the case of plate motion models. Finally, the MCMC results for weekly downsampled versions of the benchmark synthetic GNSS time series as provided in Chapter 2 are presented separately in an appendix

GPS measurements of current crustal movements along the Dead Sea Fault

A network of 11 continuous GPS stations was constructed in Israel between 1996 and 2001 to monitor current crustal movements across the Dead Sea Fault (DSF). Analysis of the GPS measurements with respect to the ITRF2000 Reference Frame yields time series of daily site positions containing both secular and seasonal variations. Horizontal secular variations (station velocities) are evaluated with respect to the main tectonic element in the region, the DSF. We use six velocity vectors west of the DSF to define the ITRF2000 pole of the Sinai sub‐plate, and rotate the velocity field for all stations into the Sinai reference frame (SRF). The velocity vectors reveal that (1) relative station movements are less than 4 mm/yr; (2) the nine stations located west of the DSF show no statistically significant motion with respect to the SRF; and (3) the two stations located in the Golan Heights (KATZ and ELRO) and a station in Damascus, Syria (UDMC) show 1.7–2.8 mm/yr northward motion with respect to Sinai, indicating a left‐lateral motion along the DSF. Using locked‐fault models, we estimate the current slip rate across the DSF as 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr. If we exclude the northern sites (ELRO and UDMC), which are located adjacent to the compressional jog of Mount Hermon, our estimate increases to 3.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr. The calculated ITRF2000 Sinai, Eurasia, and Nubia poles and a published pole for Arabia allow us to calculate the current relative plate motion of Sinai‐Arabia and Sinai‐Nubia

Frictional afterslip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake, Sumatra

Science, v. 312, n. 5782, p. 1921-1926, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1126960International audienceContinuously recording Global Positioning System stations near the 28 March 2005 rupture of the Sunda megathrust [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7] show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust, with a major fraction of this slip in the up-dip direction from the main rupture. Eleven months after the main shock, afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate, resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a Mw 8.2 earthquake. In general, along-strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles. Aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up-dip creeping zone. We observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements; this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip