AD-BERT: Using Pre-trained contextualized embeddings to Predict the Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis

Extracting Social Support and Social Isolation Information from Clinical Psychiatry Notes: Comparing a Rule-based NLP System and a Large Language Model

Background: Social support (SS) and social isolation (SI) are social determinants of health (SDOH) associated with psychiatric outcomes. In electronic health records (EHRs), individual-level SS/SI is typically documented as narrative clinical notes rather than structured coded data. Natural language processing (NLP) algorithms can automate the otherwise labor-intensive process of data extraction. Data and Methods: Psychiatric encounter notes from Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS, n=300) and Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM, n=225) were annotated and established a gold standard corpus. A rule-based system (RBS) involving lexicons and a large language model (LLM) using FLAN-T5-XL were developed to identify mentions of SS and SI and their subcategories (e.g., social network, instrumental support, and loneliness). Results: For extracting SS/SI, the RBS obtained higher macro-averaged f-scores than the LLM at both MSHS (0.89 vs. 0.65) and WCM (0.85 vs. 0.82). For extracting subcategories, the RBS also outperformed the LLM at both MSHS (0.90 vs. 0.62) and WCM (0.82 vs. 0.81). Discussion and Conclusion: Unexpectedly, the RBS outperformed the LLMs across all metrics. Intensive review demonstrates that this finding is due to the divergent approach taken by the RBS and LLM. The RBS were designed and refined to follow the same specific rules as the gold standard annotations. Conversely, the LLM were more inclusive with categorization and conformed to common English-language understanding. Both approaches offer advantages and are made available open-source for future testing.Comment: 2 figures, 3 table

Using Machine Learning to Predict Antidepressant Treatment Outcome From Electronic Health Records

Objective To evaluate if a machine learning approach can accurately predict antidepressant treatment outcome using electronic health records (EHRs) from patients with depression. Method This study examined 808 patients with depression at a New York City‐based outpatient mental health clinic between June 13, 2016 and June 22, 2020. Antidepressant treatment outcome was defined based on trend in depression symptom severity over time and was categorized as either “Recovering” or “Worsening” (i.e., non‐Recovering), measured by the slope of individual‐level Patient Health Questionnaire‐9 (PHQ‐9) score trajectory spanning 6 months following treatment initiation. A patient was designated as “Recovering” if the slope is less than 0 and as “Worsening” if the slope was no less than 0. Multiple machine learning (ML) models including L2 norm regularized Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) were used to predict treatment outcome based on additional data from EHRs, including demographics and diagnoses. Shapley Additive Explanations were applied to identify the most important predictors. Results The GBDT achieved the best results of predicting “Recovering” (AUC: 0.7654 ± 0.0227; precision: 0.6002 ± 0.0215; recall: 0.5131 ± 0.0336). When excluding patients with low PHQ‐9 scores (<10) at baseline, the results of predicting “Recovering” (AUC: 0.7254 ± 0.0218; precision: 0.5392 ± 0.0437; recall: 0.4431 ± 0.0513) were obtained. Prior diagnosis of anxiety, psychotherapy, recurrent depression, and baseline depression symptom severity were strong predictors. Conclusions The results demonstrate the potential utility of using ML in longitudinal EHRs to predict antidepressant treatment outcome. Our predictive tool holds the promise to accelerate personalized medical management in patients with psychiatric illnesses

Social connectedness as a determinant of mental health: A scoping review.

Public health and epidemiologic research have established that social connectedness promotes overall health. Yet there have been no recent reviews of findings from research examining social connectedness as a determinant of mental health. The goal of this review was to evaluate recent longitudinal research probing the effects of social connectedness on depression and anxiety symptoms and diagnoses in the general population. A scoping review was performed of PubMed and PsychInfo databases from January 2015 to December 2021 following PRISMA-ScR guidelines using a defined search strategy. The search yielded 66 unique studies. In research with other than pregnant women, 83% (19 of 23) studies reported that social support benefited symptoms of depression with the remaining 17% (5 of 23) reporting minimal or no evidence that lower levels of social support predict depression at follow-up. In research with pregnant women, 83% (24 of 29 studies) found that low social support increased postpartum depressive symptoms. Among 8 of 9 studies that focused on loneliness, feeling lonely at baseline was related to adverse outcomes at follow-up including higher risks of major depressive disorder, depressive symptom severity, generalized anxiety disorder, and lower levels of physical activity. In 5 of 8 reports, smaller social network size predicted depressive symptoms or disorder at follow-up. In summary, most recent relevant longitudinal studies have demonstrated that social connectedness protects adults in the general population from depressive symptoms and disorders. The results, which were largely consistent across settings, exposure measures, and populations, support efforts to improve clinical detection of high-risk patients, including adults with low social support and elevated loneliness

Predictive Modeling for Suicide-Related Outcomes and Risk Factors among Patients with Pain Conditions: A Systematic Review

Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US. Patients with pain conditions have higher suicidal risks. In a systematic review searching observational studies from multiple sources (e.g., MEDLINE) from 1 January 2000&ndash;12 September 2020, we evaluated existing suicide prediction models&rsquo; (SPMs) performance and identified risk factors and their derived data sources among patients with pain conditions. The suicide-related outcomes included suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, suicide deaths, and suicide behaviors. Among the 87 studies included (with 8 SPM studies), 107 suicide risk factors (grouped into 27 categories) were identified. The most frequently occurring risk factor category was depression and their severity (33%). Approximately 20% of the risk factor categories would require identification from data sources beyond structured data (e.g., clinical notes). For 8 SPM studies (only 2 performing validation), the reported prediction metrics/performance varied: C-statistics (n = 3 studies) ranged 0.67&ndash;0.84, overall accuracy(n = 5): 0.78&ndash;0.96, sensitivity(n = 2): 0.65&ndash;0.91, and positive predictive values(n = 3): 0.01&ndash;0.43. Using the modified Quality in Prognosis Studies tool to assess the risk of biases, four SPM studies had moderate-to-high risk of biases. This systematic review identified a comprehensive list of risk factors that may improve predicting suicidal risks for patients with pain conditions. Future studies need to examine reasons for performance variations and SPM&rsquo;s clinical utility