Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Analysing E-waste Management in Finland

Electronic waste is an increasing global concern due to its harmful influence on the environment and human health. As the demand for electrical and electronic equipment develops, it is necessary to develop effective methods for producing, disposing, and recycling in eco-friendly way. This research comprehensively examines e-waste management in Finland. The study looks at the present legislative framework, existing challenges, and possible opportunities in the waste management industry. The literature review provides an in-depth look at e-waste, covering its composition, lifetime, risks, and sustainable management practices. The study found that Finland has a strong e-waste management system in place with successful implementation of the EU led directives. It has also been able to meet the target set by the EU to a greater extent. However, despite the country's achievements, there are still issues that must be addressed. These issues include enhancing small electrical and electronic device collection and recycling, raising consumer awareness, and building a circular economy for electronics. Furthermore, the study concluded that Finland's e-waste disposal system is effective, but it could be better. Enhancing the collecting and recycling of small electrical and electronic equipment, raising consumer awareness, and strengthening the legislation are some of the recommendations for improved EEE management

Heritability Studies in Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) Genotypes

Genetic variability, heritability, and genetic advance for fruit yield and quality traits in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) were examined at Main Vegetable Research Station (MVRS) of Anand Agricultural University, Anand, for the kharif-rabi season of 2022-23. The experimental material is made-up of six families developed for generation mean analysis from nine diverse parents viz., 2012/TODVAR-1, AVTOV 1007, GAT-5, 2015/TOLCV RES-1, 2014/TOOV-10, 2016/TOV-10, 2017/TOLV-4, and 2015/2016/TOLCV RES-4. The results show that family I, II, III, and family V exhibited higher values of broad sense heritability with higher genetic advance, was a positive indication of presence of additive gene action and suggests selection methods for improvement of this trait via selection procedures. Higher values of genetic advance were reported highest for lycopene content (452.67 %) for family I and (212.85 %) for family III, 1000 seed weight for family V. This study suggests that improvement of yield and associated traits in L. esculentum should be focused on character basis and requirement of breeding programs

Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Choledochoduodenostomy for Biliary Drainage in Patients with Lower End Common Bile Duct Block: A Single-Center Experience

Objective: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided biliary drainage is evolving as an alternative technique in patients with failed endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. The objective of this study was to find out the outcome of EUS-guided choledochoduodenostomy in patients with malignant mid and lower end biliary obstruction with inaccessible papilla presenting at our center. Methods: The present study was a single-center prospective observational study. Data of all the patients who underwent choledochoduodensotomy from January 2014 to December 2015 were recorded. Outcome measures were technical success and clinical success. Technical success was defined as successful placement of stent in the biliary system; clinical success was defined as 50% reduction in bilirubin at 2 weeks. Complications during the procedure and follow-up were recorded. Results: A total of 10 patients underwent EUS-guided choledochoduodenostomy. Cause of biliary obstruction was pancreatic cancer in eight patients, two patients had carcinoma gallbladder with mid-common bile duct (CBD) block due to compression by metastatic lymph nodes, and one patient had ampullary carcinoma. Mean bilirubin value was 16.4 mg/dL (±3.2 mg/dL). Technical and clinical success were 100% and 90%, respectively. No immediate procedure-related complication was noticed. Two patients had stent migration during the follow-up. Conclusion: EUS-guided choledochoduodenostomy is an effective and safe alternative for rescuing biliary drainage in patients with mid and lower end malignant CBD block with inaccessible papilla

Distal Endoscopic Attachments

Endoscopy is an evolving science and the last two decades has seen it expand exponentially at a pace unapparelled in the past. With the advancement in new procedures like image-enhanced endoscopy, magnifying endoscopy, third space endoscopy, and highly advanced endoscopic ultrasound procedures, endoscopic accessories are also evolving to cater the unmet needs. Endoscopic cap or distal attachment cap is a simple but very important accessory in the endoscopists' armamentarium which has changed the path of endoscopic procedures. It has so far been used commonly mostly for variceal ligation and endoscopic mucosal resections for colorectal polyps. But the horizon of its use has expanded in the recent years for difficult clinical scenarios like providing stability to the endoscope, overcoming blind spots during screening colonoscopies, maintaining clear field of vision during endotherapy of gastrointestinal bleeding, and during magnification endoscopy for lesion characterizations and so on. These caps are of different shapes, sizes, colors, and material depending on manufacturers and their implications while performing varied endoscopies. This review summarizes the clinical utilities of the cap in diagnostic as well as therapeutic endoscopy and its expanding indications of use