Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5-6m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030-2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5-6m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative "wait and see" option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present times policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.Sea level rise, France, Camargue, scenario, extreme climate, stakeholder workshop

Using simulation of accidents to assess resilience capacities of organizations

Available on: http://www.resilience-engineering.org/REPapers/Wybo_et_al.pdfInternational audienceThis paper deals with the organization of simulation exercises to train organizations to face emergencies. The original objective of simulations is to train people to emergency procedures and devices; we raise the question of training people to face potential crisis situations: are simulations fitted to that objective? Through the observation of a number of exercises by private companies and rescue services, we can answer that naïve interpretation of simulation results limits their benefits to the correction of gaps between prescribed and observed actions, without addressing complex organizational behavior. We introduce a method to organize simulations that gives access to this complexity and to the resilience capacities of the organization by giving specific roles to observers. This method uses a model of the organization seen as a combination of structures, relations and meaning

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Engaging the Public with CCUS: Reflection on a European Project Approach

The aim of this paper is to share our approach for a societal engagement and participation process that is implemented as part of two sequential research projects on CCUS. The two projects are both funded under the European Union’s (EU) Horizon 2020 research program. The first one, STRATEGY CCUS (2019-2022), develops strategic development plans for eight regions in South-East Europe; the second, Pilot STRATEGY (2021-2026), partly builds on the first project; Pilot STRATEGY aims at enabling three of the eight regions to start developing their storage resources concretely and to support two further regions in continuing to explore CCUS as an option. Both projects were designed in a way that they integrate geological, technical and economic research with social sciences, with a focus on the regional level. The paper provides an overview on the concept, objectives and the methodologies for the engagement process. It further includes reflections identifying room for improvement and provides recommendations for other projects. Overall, we find that the situation is characterized by low levels of awareness regarding CCUS, but some openness to discuss it. Specific expectations vary and the societal view is not always in line with the current scientific knowledge and the technological development. Important recommendations include building strong interdisciplinary teams that also implement processes for self-reflection.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Socio-political profiles to inform a cross-national survey in France, Germany, Norway and the UK.

European countries must continue cooperating with each other on global issues like climate change, regardless of the recent referendum result in the UK. Brexit makes understanding different nations’ perceptions even more important. By understanding how different European countries perceive climate change, progress can be made towards addressing the issue

Between scientific 'facts' and 'debates': How perceived scientific consensus predicts beliefs about anthropogenic climate in four EU countries

International audienceDespite the established scientific consensus on the existence of anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties endure as to future outcomes of mitigation and adaptation measures. These are normal epistemic uncertainties, but in some quarters appear to have been 'translated' as uncertainties as to the very reality of anthropogenic climate change. Our study examines to what extent the perception of a scientific consensus around the existence of climate change (CC) influences beliefs about CC's existence-does it exist?-and causes-is it anthropogenic? or natural?. We also tested whether such interpretations of scientific consensus are moderated by participants' (a) political orientation-left vs. right-and /or (b) intuitive models of science-traditional vs. Kuhnian (see Rabinovich & Morton, 2012). These questions were analyzed through the Joint Program Initiative "European Perceptions of CC" survey conducted in June 2016 with representative samples in France, Germany, Norway, and the UK (N = 4,048). Results show that in line with the literature, perception of scientific consensus overall predicts beliefs about CC causes and existence. The relation between the perception of 'scientific consensus' and beliefs about 'climate change causes' is indeed moderated by respondents' intuitive model of science in the UK and in Germany-specifically, this relation is stronger among participants adopting a traditional model than those adopting a Kuhnian model of science. Political orientation was not a good predictor or moderator of beliefs about the existence of CC causes or its causes. These results provide important comparative data about how climate science is understood in Europe, and moreover, provide survey-based evidence for Rabinovich and Morton's 'beliefs about science' model. Our results also underline the importance of carefully addressing the models of science that are present, but often implicit, in climate science communications

Public perceptions and governance of controversial technologies to tackle climate change: Nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, wind, and geoengineering

International audienceThe role carbon emissions play in contributing to climate change makes clear the necessity for a global reconsideration of current modes of energy production. In recent years, as concerns over the threats of climate change (CC) have become more acute, four technologies have notably risen to the forefront of academic and public discourse: nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS), wind power, and geoengineering. The particular interest of these four approaches lies in the fact that they reflect both energy production and climate control technologies, are often socially controversial, and present complex challenges of governance. Nuclear and wind power both deserve an important place among the variety of low-carbon energy options. In countries where public acceptance is evaluated, although, support for nuclear energy appears to be conditional upon simultaneous development of other renewable energies alongside a feasible plan to address the disposal of nuclear waste. The Fukushima accident sharply increased public concern about the safety and vulnerability of nuclear reactors. While wind power receives general public support, issues of accommodation can arise when it comes to siting wind farms. Persistent dependency upon carbon-producing energy has made favorable the option of CCS. However, in addition to technical and geological factors, social resistance to the placement of carbon storage units remains a key obstacle. Geoengineering offers the technological capacity to directly act on the climate should levels of atmospheric CO2 become dangerously high. Public perception regarding the risk of climate change can be labile, and the alternatives reviewed here share the characteristic that their technical and political dimensions are intertwined. The variety of options for combining and implementing these technologies, coupled with the inherently time-sensitive nature of CC, underscore the complexity of the endeavor. In order to bridge these various levels of analysis and decision making, and to better understand and integrate people's involvement, exercises in risk governance could be developed at both the national and international levels

Coastal vulnerabilities under the deliberation of stakeholders: The case of two French sandy beaches

International audienceCoastal environment systems are always exposed to natural phenomena such as erosion and submersion, and climate change is likely to increase these phenomena and their related vulnerability. The decision whether or not to protect the coast from an extreme weather event is not only based on technical data, but must also take into account its social acceptability. The involvement of stakeholders thus appears as a risk governance option. By using a scenario (both physical and socio-economic) and workshop methodology, we compare the deliberations and recommendations made by stakeholders facing a storm scenario in two different locations on the French Atlantic coast in the future (2030): Truc Vert and La Tresson-Noirmoutier. Group deliberations were content-analyzed in order to reveal the main directions taken by the debate. A conservative ‘wait and see’ option was favored in the less occupied region (Truc Vert), and a more protective option was preferred in the polderised and more intensively inhabited region of La Tresson-Noirmoutier