Analysis of the Exchange Rate and Pricing Foreign Currency Options on the Croatian Market: the NGARCH Model as an Alternative to the Black-Scholes Model

The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model.Black-Scholes model, NGARCH model, heteroscedasticity, volatility, risk premium, risk-neutral measure, no arbitrage, Monte Carlo simulations.

Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries

The authors use a nonlinear framework in order to explore house price determinants and adjustment properties. They test for threshold cointegration using a sample of four developed countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Ireland) and four transition countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Estonia). In addition to testing for nonlinearities, they explore house price determinants in these four transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Asymmetric house price adjustment is present in all transition countries and the USA, while no threshold effects are detected in developed European countries. In a threshold error correction framework, house prices are aligned with fundamentals, but house price persistence coupled with a slow and asymmetric house price adjustment process might have facilitated the house price boom in transition countries and the USA.house prices, threshold cointegration, transition

Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market

Factor models observe the sensitivity of an asset return as a function of one or more factors. This paper analyzes returns on fourteen stocks of the Croatian capital market in the period from January 2004 to October 2009 using inflation, industrial production, interest rates, market index and oil prices as factors. Both the direction and strength of the relation between the change in factors and returns are investigated. The analyses included fourteen stocks and their sensitivities to factors were estimated. The results show that the market index has the largest statistical significance for all stocks and a positive relation to returns. Interest rates, oil prices and industrial production also marked a positive relation to returns, while inflation had a negative influence. Furthermore, cross-sectional regression with the estimated sensitivities used as independent variables and returns in each month as dependent variables is performed. This analysis resulted in time series of risk premiums for each factor. The most important factor affecting stock prices proved to be the market index, which had a positive risk premium. A statistically significant factor in 2004 and 2008 was also inflation, marking a negative risk premium in 2004 and a positive one in 2008. The remaining three factors have not shown as significant.factor models, risk premium, stock returns, estimated sensitivities, regression analysis

Threshold Autoregressive Model of Exchange Rate Pass through Effect: The Case of Croatia

In this paper exchange rate pass-through effect in Croatia is estimated with nonlinear (asymmetric) threshold autoregressive model (TAR). In total 12285 regressions is estimated and a strong case of nonlinearity with single threshold is proven. According to our estimation there is a threshold at 2.69% of monthly change of nominal exchange rate of German mark (Euro) and the way in which nominal exchange rate affects inflation is asymmetric around it. Below the threshold, effect of change in nominal exchange rate on inflation is statistically insignificant and above the threshold the effect is strong and significant.threshold autoregressive model, pass-through effect, exchange rate, inflation, nonlinear econometrics

Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market

Factor models observe the sensitivity of an asset return as a function of one or more factors. This paper analyzes returns on fourteen stocks of the Croatian capital market in the period from January 2004 to October 2009 using inflation, industrial production, interest rates, market index and oil prices as factors. Both the direction and strength of the relation between the change in factors and returns are investigated. The analyses included fourteen stocks and their sensitivities to factors were estimated. The results show that the market index has the largest statistical significance for all stocks and a positive relation to returns. Interest rates, oil prices and industrial production also marked a positive relation to returns, while inflation had a negative influence. Furthermore, cross-sectional regression with the estimated sensitivities used as independent variables and returns in each month as dependent variables is performed. This analysis resulted in time series of risk premiums for each factor. The most important factor affecting stock prices proved to be the market index, which had a positive risk premium. A statistically significant factor in 2004 and 2008 was also inflation, marking a negative risk premium in 2004 and a positive one in 2008. The remaining three factors have not shown as significant.factor models, risk premium, stock returns, estimated sensitivities, regression analysis

Analysis of the Exchange Rate and Pricing Foreign Currency Options on the Croatian Market: the NGARCH Model as an Alternative to the Black-Scholes Model

The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model

Nelinearnost procesa prilagodbe cijena nekretnina u razvijenim i tranzicijskim zemljama

We use a nonlinear framework in order to explore house price determinants and their adjustment properties. We test for threshold cointegration using a sample of four developed countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Ireland) and four transition countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Estonia). All eight countries experienced an intensive increase in house prices during the 1990s and the first half of this decade. In addition to testing for nonlinearities, we focus on house price determinants in these four transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. An asymmetric house price adjustment is present in all transition countries and the U.S., while no threshold effects are detected in developed European countries. In a threshold error correction framework, house prices are aligned with the fundamentals; but house price persistence coupled with a slow and asymmetric house price adjustment process might have facilitated the house price boom in transition countries and the U.S.U članku se koristi nelinearna metodologija pomoću koje se istražuju determinante cijena nekretnina i karakteristike njihove kratkoročne prilagodbe. Testira se kointegracija s uključenim pragom na uzorku od četiri razvijene zemlje (SAD, Velika Britanija, Španjolska i Irska) i četiri tranzicijske zemlje (Bugarska, Hrvatska, Češka i Estonija). Svih je osam zemalja zabilježilo intenzivan rast cijena nekretnina tijekom zadnjeg desetljeća prošlog stoljeća i prve polovine ovog desetljeća. Osim testiranja nelinearnosti, članak se fokusira i na utvrđivanje determinanti cijena nekretnina u četiri tranzicijske zemlje Srednje i Istočne Europe. Opaža se da asimetrična prilagodba cijena nekretnina postoji u svim tranzicijskim zemljama i u SAD-u. Model korekcije odstupanja s pragom sugerira da cijene nekretnina odražavaju kretanje makroekonomskih fundamentala, no perzistentnost cijena nekretnina te spora i asimetrična prilagodba mogli su pogodovati eksploziji cijena nekretnina u tranzicijskim zemljama i SAD-u