Are analysts' loss functions asymmetric?

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts? earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for forecast bias is that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. We test this alternative explanation. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on forecast error skewness. Our results confirm that the ex ante forecast error variance is a significant determinant of forecast error and that, after controlling for variance, the sign of the coefficient on forecast error skewness is opposite to that found in prior research. Our results are consistent with financial analysts having asymmetric loss functions. Further analysis reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across style portfolios formed on book-to-price and market capitalization. These firm characteristics capture systematic variation in forecast error variance and skewness. Within style portfolios, forecast error variance continues to play a dominant role in explaining forecast error.

Sea surface velocities from visible and infrared multispectral atmospheric mapping sensor imagery

High resolution (100 m), sequential Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) images were used in a study to calculate advective surface velocities using the Maximum Cross Correlation (MCC) technique. Radiance and brightness temperature gradient magnitude images were formed from visible (0.48 microns) and infrared (11.12 microns) image pairs, respectively, of Chandeleur Sound, which is a shallow body of water northeast of the Mississippi delta, at 145546 GMT and 170701 GMT on 30 Mar. 1989. The gradient magnitude images enhanced the surface water feature boundaries, and a lower cutoff on the gradient magnitudes calculated allowed the undesirable sunglare and backscatter gradients in the visible images, and the water vapor absorption gradients in the infrared images, to be reduced in strength. Requiring high (greater than 0.4) maximum cross correlation coefficients and spatial coherence of the vector field aided in the selection of an optimal template size of 10 x 10 pixels (first image) and search limit of 20 pixels (second image) to use in the MCC technique. Use of these optimum input parameters to the MCC algorithm, and high correlation and spatial coherence filtering of the resulting velocity field from the MCC calculation yielded a clustered velocity distribution over the visible and infrared gradient images. The velocity field calculated from the visible gradient image pair agreed well with a subjective analysis of the motion, but the velocity field from the infrared gradient image pair did not. This was attributed to the changing shapes of the gradient features, their nonuniqueness, and large displacements relative to the mean distance between them. These problems implied a lower repeat time for the imagery was needed in order to improve the velocity field derived from gradient imagery. Suggestions are given for optimizing the repeat time of sequential imagery when using the MCC method for motion studies. Applying the MCC method to the infrared brightness temperature imagery yielded a velocity field which did agree with the subjective analysis of the motion and that derived from the visible gradient imagery. Differences between the visible and infrared derived velocities were 14.9 cm/s in speed and 56.7 degrees in direction. Both of these velocity fields also agreed well with the motion expected from considerations of the ocean bottom topography and wind and tidal forcing in the study area during the 2.175 hour time interval

Are analysts? loss functions asymmetric?

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts? earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for forecast bias is that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. We test this alternative explanation. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on forecast error skewness. Our results confirm that the ex ante forecast error variance is a significant determinant of forecast error and that, after controlling for variance, the sign of the coefficient on forecast error skewness is opposite to that found in prior research. Our results are consistent with financial analysts having asymmetric loss functions. Further analysis reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across style portfolios formed on book-to-price and market capitalization. These firm characteristics capture systematic variation in forecast error variance and skewness. Within style portfolios, forecast error variance continues to play a dominant role in explaining forecast error.

Lost in translation: a multi-level case study of the metamorphosis of meanings and action in public sector organisational innovation

This paper explores the early implementation of an organisational innovation in the UK National Health Service (NHS) - Treatment Centres (TCs) - designed to dramatically reduce waiting lists for elective care. The paper draws on case studies of eight TCs (each at varying stages of their development) and aims to explore how meanings about TCs are created and evolve, and how these meanings impact upon the development of the organisational innovation. Research on organisational meanings needs to take greater account of the fact that modern organisations like the NHS are complex multi-level phenomena, comprising layers of interlacing networks. To understand the pace, direction and impact of organisational innovation and change we need to study the interconnections between meanings across different organisational levels. The data presented in this paper show how the apparently simple, relatively unformed, concept of a TC framed by central government, is translated and transmuted by subsequent layers in the health service administration, and by players in local health economies and, ultimately in the TCs themselves, picking up new rationales, meanings, and significance as it goes. The developmental histories of TCs reveal a range of significant re-workings of macro policy with the result that there is considerable diversity and variation between local TC schemes. The picture is of important disconnections between meanings, that in many ways mirror Weick’s (1976) ‘loosely coupled systems’. The emergent meanings and the direction of micro-level development of TCs appear more strongly determined by interactions within the local TC environment, notably between what we identify as groups of ‘idealists’, ‘pragmatists’, ‘opportunists’ and ‘sceptics’ than by the framing (Goffman 1974) provided by macro and meso organisational levels. While this illustrates the limitations of top down and policy-driven attempts at change, and highlights the crucial importance of the front-line local ‘micro-systems’ (Donaldson & Mohr, 2000) in the overall scheme of implementing organisational innovations, the space or headroom provided by frames at the macro and meso levels can enable local change, albeit at variable speed and with uncertain outcomes

Phenol-alkoxylate co-solvent surfactant composition

Provided herein are, inter alia, compositions including a surfactant and a phenol-alkoxylate co-solvent useful in enhanced oil recovery. The compositions and methods provided herein are particularly useful for oil recovery under a broad range of reservoir conditions (e.g. high to low temperatures, high to low salinity, highly viscous oils).Board of Regents, University of Texas Syste

Light co-solvent compositions

Provided herein are inter alia non-surfactant aqueous compositions and methods having application in the field of enhanced oil recovery. In particular, non-surfactant compositions including light co-solvents and an alkali agent presented herein can be used, inter alia, for the recovery of a large range of crude oil compositions from challenging reservoirs.Board of Regents, University of Texas Syste

Alkoxy carboxylate surfactants

Provided herein are inter alia novel compositions and methods having application in a variety of fields including the field of enhanced oil recovery, the cleaning industry as well as groundwater remediation. In particular, the alkoxy carboxylate compounds and mixtures thereof presented herein can be used, inter alia, for the recovery of a large range of crude oil compositions from challenging reservoirs.Board of Regents, University of Texas Syste

Phenol-alkoxylate co-solvent surfactant composition

Provided herein are, inter alia, compositions including a surfactant and a phenol-alkoxylate co-solvent useful in enhanced oil recovery. The compositions and methods provided herein are particularly useful for oil recovery under a broad range of reservoir conditions (e.g. high to low temperatures, high to low salinity, highly viscous oils).Board of Regents, University of Texas Syste

General Very Special Relativity is Finsler Geometry

We ask whether Cohen and Glashow's Very Special Relativity model for Lorentz violation might be modified, perhaps by quantum corrections, possibly producing a curved spacetime with a cosmological constant. We show that its symmetry group ISIM(2) does admit a 2-parameter family of continuous deformations, but none of these give rise to non-commutative translations analogous to those of the de Sitter deformation of the Poincar\'e group: spacetime remains flat. Only a 1-parameter family DISIM_b(2) of deformations of SIM(2) is physically acceptable. Since this could arise through quantum corrections, its implications for tests of Lorentz violations via the Cohen-Glashow proposal should be taken into account. The Lorentz-violating point particle action invariant under DISIM_b(2) is of Finsler type, for which the line element is homogeneous of degree 1 in displacements, but anisotropic. We derive DISIM_b(2)-invariant wave equations for particles of spins 0, 1/2 and 1. The experimental bound, $|b|<10^{-26}$, raises the question ``Why is the dimensionless constant $b$ so small in Very Special Relativity?''Comment: 4 pages, minor corrections, references adde