Population trends, convictions and imprisonment: Demographic divergence, dichotomy and diversity

The links between population patterns and trends, and policy and planning for the justice system is important. The trends in the number of convictions and imprisonments by regional councils are investigated for the period 1986 to 2001. This does not just focus on Custodial sentences but also looks at other types of sentences such as monetary and community sentences. Additionally, a regional estimate of the muster in prison is derived to give “normal” place of residence of those in prison. The relationship of imprisonment to other factors such as income, unemployment, sickness/invalid benefit rates, labour force participation rates and ethnicity is investigated. Some policy implications of these findings are presented

Components of regional population growth, 1986-2001

The vitality of a region is frequently assessed by looking at its population growth pattern. This is seen as being linked to its economic and social vibrancy. To better understand the dynamics of this growth pattern it is necessary to decompose population growth into the contributions of natural increase (births less deaths) and migration (both domestic and international). This provides a demographic accounting of the factors of population change which we use to analyse the degree to which the levels and impacts of these factors differ between the Regional Council Areas of New Zealand. We find large variations between Regional Council Areas in overall population growth for the three quinquennia between 1986 and 2001. The Auckland region experienced the largest growth, coming both from high natural increase and international migration, while the “sunbelt” regions of Bay of Plenty, Nelson-Tasman and Marlborough had high growth, but driven by internal migration. In other regions, such as Gisborne, West Coast and Southland population growth declined

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Incomes

This paper investigates income trends in the Regions of New Zealand between 1986 and 2001. It also looks at additional factors of age and ethnicity which have a bearing on the results. Investigations of median, upper and lower quartiles and inter-quartile ranges of personal income calculated from census data showed increasing inequalities between the regions. The distribution of income around New Zealand is also investigated. Auckland and Wellington increasingly have higher incomes than the other regions

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Population geography

This paper is primarily concerned with the spatial aspects of population, namely with: (i) patterns of settlement (urban, rural) and attendant population size variations by region, (ii) changes over time between rural and urban areas at a Regional Council level, (iii) and between regions in New Zealand. It is important to look at this because many trends in human capital, social equity, families and health that are seen at a regional level may be gaps between more urbanised and more isolated areas. There are, in fact, significant differences in levels of urbanisation between regions and these have major implications for policy

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Household and families, and their dwellings

Household structures and patterns of home ownership can have important implications for the wellbeing of populations. This paper explores regional differences in Household Structure and Home ownership for the period 1986 to 2001. Over this period there have been some major changes in the distribution of different household structures with a move away from the Two-parent household to other household types, such as Couple Only and Single-person households. Over the same period rates of home ownership have dropped. This paper shows that the patterns and trends for household structures and dwelling tenure vary significantly between regions. This reflects both overall national trends and inequalities between regions

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Industries and occupations

This paper provides an analysis which examines the differences in the industrial and occupational structure of New Zealand regions. Using data compiled by Statistics New Zealand from Goods and Services Tax (GST) registrations supplied by the Inland Revenue Department, it also looks at business size trends. The analysis in this paper points to a distinct change in the characteristics of the New Zealand labour force, a shift to a “More Highly Skilled Tertiary” sector. This paper shows that these changes did not occur uniformly across New Zealand regions. Instead, skills typical of the “new economy” or the “knowledge society” are concentrated in Auckland and Wellington, and to a lesser degree Canterbury. This trend has seen regional patterns of work diverge more and more

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Labour market aspects of human capital

This paper provides an analysis of labour force participation, full and part-time work and unemployment, over the 1986 – 2001 period. Using a non-conventional estimation technique devised for this paper, the paper also looks at discouraged worker effects. It points to growth in regional inequality and the worrying impact of negative labour market effects on ages 30- 44 years that are central to both the economic and family life of the nation. Using a custom designed method to assess “discouraged worker” effects, this paper shows that such effects are probably higher than the levels shown in official statistics that are constrained by narrowly defined criteria

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Dependency and development of social capital

The development of social capital is significantly affected by benefit dependency of the population. This paper investigates measures of social cohesion and measures of dependency on society across the regions of New Zealand. Some of the measures looked at specifically are social security benefit use and convictions, custodial sentences and the prison muster across regions. The paper also focuses on housing and specifically considers overcrowding

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Population structures

The age structure of a region’s population affects many areas of social and economic development across all sectors, including employment, housing, welfare, health and education. This is mainly because different age groups tend to have different needs both at a family level and a social policy level. Also related to this are the differing ethnic structures between the regions, which can explain some regional differences in social and economic factors. Birthplaces are also related to ethnicity. This paper investigates age, birthplace and ethnicity for the period 1986 to 2001 by the regional council areas of New Zealand. It also looks at the projected age structures into the future between 2001 and 2021 and the wave effects these may generate

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Population dynamics

New Zealand regions have markedly different population dynamics. Population change in a region is driven by three different factors: fertility, mortality and migration. A fourth factor that is often related, momentum, is analysed in a separate paper (Pool et al. forthcoming-f). The present paper analyses the degree to which the levels and impacts of these three factors differ within New Zealand. It looks at regional dynamics by analysing growth and its components, natural increase (births and deaths) and migration, both domestic and international. We first present a review of population flows, and then disaggregate these into their components; natural increase and net migration, so as to provide a demographic accounting of the factors of change. The changes are investigated for the period 1986-2001 and then for the three quinquennia of 1986-91, 1991-96 and 1996-2001