E G Jacoby: A Brief Historiography of New Zealand Demography

Dr "Peter" Jacoby can legitimately be seen as the "founding father" of modern New Zealand demography. It was for this reason that the Population Association of New Zealand, with his widow's permission, have used his name for its student prize. Parenthetically, it can be noted here that the Goethe Society independently set up a Jacoby Prize -- I only learnt about this a year or so ago. In sum then, two professional bodies have recognised the contribution of Dr Jacoby to New Zealand Scholarship. Beyond this, representatives of the state library in the Landt where he had studied -- Schelswig -- came to New Zealand to collect the papers of this notable "native son" for their archives

Searching for demography's missing link: Momentum

This paper is both more theoretical and highly applied; both methodological and policy-oriented. Empirically until recently there has been little work on momentum effects. By way of case-studies on momentum effects, the paper reviews published policy-oriented work on New Zealand on national growth and age-structural transitions; on fertility patterns in New Zealand; and on survivorship and longevity, and the more local discussion of Maori-Pakeha differentials. The conclusion is that more attention must be paid to momentum. It calls for the demographic community to lead in moving policy analyses away from demography as a naive art form to one that is more multi-dimensional and sophisticated

Transfers of capital and shifts in New Zealand’s regional population distribution, 1840-1996

When researchers attempt to study population and development, and particularly the role of migrations, the focus is normally on national level trends, frequently involving time-series analyses of more generic indicators of population change and economic growth. The migration field does, of course, deal with questions of the integration of migrants, at a macro-level evaluating their impact on social diversity and cohesion by turning to ecological-level indices covering clustering. This paper takes a different approach in part inspired by the model developed by Le Heron, Britton and Parson to analyse a related question: restructuring. This they saw as likely to be induced and thus frequently exogenous to a particular socio-demographic system. For example, policies effecting restructuring at a regional level will often come from some central agency external to the region, or even outside the geographic territory or country. There are also other changes that can be spontaneous in nature, arising from a mix of factors and situations endogenous to a given area.1 In both cases, so these authors argue (1992:5), we must deal with “processes operating at various geographic scales...”. To this end this paper thus employs as demographic variables indices plotting subnational changes, thereby recognising that population dynamics at the national-level are likely to be a composite of complex societal forces varying from region to region. For much of this essay, which is more an exercise in setting research agendas than a full-scale empirical analysis, the regional breakdown is very broad, attempting to distinguish between the more dominant and less dominant poles at any time

Population trends, convictions and imprisonment: Demographic divergence, dichotomy and diversity

The links between population patterns and trends, and policy and planning for the justice system is important. The trends in the number of convictions and imprisonments by regional councils are investigated for the period 1986 to 2001. This does not just focus on Custodial sentences but also looks at other types of sentences such as monetary and community sentences. Additionally, a regional estimate of the muster in prison is derived to give “normal” place of residence of those in prison. The relationship of imprisonment to other factors such as income, unemployment, sickness/invalid benefit rates, labour force participation rates and ethnicity is investigated. Some policy implications of these findings are presented

Why were New Zealand levels of life-expectation so high at the dawn of the twentieth century?

With population ageing becoming an issue of major importance for societies in the developed countries, in both the scientific and policy communities there is widespread interest in the determinants of these structural changes. The focus has been on declines in fertility, arguably the major causal factor, but increasingly analyses are turning to the other major determinant, improving survivorship. This paper relates to this aspect of ageing but not to fertility per se

Components of regional population growth, 1986-2001

The vitality of a region is frequently assessed by looking at its population growth pattern. This is seen as being linked to its economic and social vibrancy. To better understand the dynamics of this growth pattern it is necessary to decompose population growth into the contributions of natural increase (births less deaths) and migration (both domestic and international). This provides a demographic accounting of the factors of population change which we use to analyse the degree to which the levels and impacts of these factors differ between the Regional Council Areas of New Zealand. We find large variations between Regional Council Areas in overall population growth for the three quinquennia between 1986 and 2001. The Auckland region experienced the largest growth, coming both from high natural increase and international migration, while the “sunbelt” regions of Bay of Plenty, Nelson-Tasman and Marlborough had high growth, but driven by internal migration. In other regions, such as Gisborne, West Coast and Southland population growth declined

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Incomes

This paper investigates income trends in the Regions of New Zealand between 1986 and 2001. It also looks at additional factors of age and ethnicity which have a bearing on the results. Investigations of median, upper and lower quartiles and inter-quartile ranges of personal income calculated from census data showed increasing inequalities between the regions. The distribution of income around New Zealand is also investigated. Auckland and Wellington increasingly have higher incomes than the other regions

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Household and families, and their dwellings

Household structures and patterns of home ownership can have important implications for the wellbeing of populations. This paper explores regional differences in Household Structure and Home ownership for the period 1986 to 2001. Over this period there have been some major changes in the distribution of different household structures with a move away from the Two-parent household to other household types, such as Couple Only and Single-person households. Over the same period rates of home ownership have dropped. This paper shows that the patterns and trends for household structures and dwelling tenure vary significantly between regions. This reflects both overall national trends and inequalities between regions

New Zealand regions, 1986-2001: Industries and occupations

This paper provides an analysis which examines the differences in the industrial and occupational structure of New Zealand regions. Using data compiled by Statistics New Zealand from Goods and Services Tax (GST) registrations supplied by the Inland Revenue Department, it also looks at business size trends. The analysis in this paper points to a distinct change in the characteristics of the New Zealand labour force, a shift to a “More Highly Skilled Tertiary” sector. This paper shows that these changes did not occur uniformly across New Zealand regions. Instead, skills typical of the “new economy” or the “knowledge society” are concentrated in Auckland and Wellington, and to a lesser degree Canterbury. This trend has seen regional patterns of work diverge more and more