Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols

The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives of billions of people. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the 20th century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Modeling studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols has been a key factor driving changes in tropical and monsoon precipitation. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to determine whether observed changes are driven by human influences using fingerprints of individual forcings (i.e. greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol and natural) derived from climate models. The results show that the observed changes can only be explained when including the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, even after accounting for internal climate variability. Anthropogenic aerosol, not greenhouse gas or natural forcing, has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation over the second half of the 20th century

Fluctuations of radiation from a chaotic laser below threshold

Radiation from a chaotic cavity filled with gain medium is considered. A set of coupled equations describing the photon density and the population of gain medium is proposed and solved. The spectral distribution and fluctuations of the radiation are found. The full noise is a result of a competition between positive correlations of photons with equal frequencies (due to stimulated emission and chaotic scattering) which increase fluctuations, and a suppression due to interaction with a gain medium which leads to negative correlations between photons. The latter effect is responsible for a pronounced suppression of the photonic noise as compared to the linear theory predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures; expanded version, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Mode Repulsion and Mode Coupling in Random Lasers

We studied experimentally and theoretically the interaction of lasing modes in random media. In a homogeneously broadened gain medium, cross gain saturation leads to spatial repulsion of lasing modes. In an inhomogeneously broadened gain medium, mode repulsion occurs in the spectral domain. Some lasing modes are coupled through photon hopping or electron absorption and reemission. Under pulsed pumping, weak coupling of two modes leads to synchronization of their lasing action. Strong coupling of two lasing modes results in anti-phased oscillations of their intensities.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Towards Better Integrators for Dissipative Particle Dynamics Simulations

Coarse-grained models that preserve hydrodynamics provide a natural approach to study collective properties of soft-matter systems. Here, we demonstrate that commonly used integration schemes in dissipative particle dynamics give rise to pronounced artifacts in physical quantities such as the compressibility and the diffusion coefficient. We assess the quality of these integration schemes, including variants based on a recently suggested self-consistent approach, and examine their relative performance. Implications of integrator-induced effects are discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. E (Rapid Communication), tentative publication issue: 01 Dec 200

Prospectus, December 8, 1993

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1993/1019/thumbnail.jp

Prospectus, November 24, 1993

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1993/1018/thumbnail.jp

Designing Chatbots for Crises: A Case Study Contrasting Potential and Reality

Chatbots are becoming ubiquitous technologies, and their popularity and adoption are rapidly spreading. The potential of chatbots in engaging people with digital services is fully recognised. However, the reputation of this technology with regards to usefulness and real impact remains rather questionable. Studies that evaluate how people perceive and utilise chatbots are generally lacking. During the last Kenyan elections, we deployed a chatbot on Facebook Messenger to help people submit reports of violence and misconduct experienced in the polling stations. Even though the chatbot was visited by more than 3,000 times, there was a clear mismatch between the users’ perception of the technology and its design. In this paper, we analyse the user interactions and content generated through this application and discuss the challenges and directions for designing more effective chatbots

Random Resonators and Prelocalized Modes in Disordered Dielectric Films

Areal density of disorder-induced resonators with a high quality factor, $Q\gg 1$, in a film with fluctuating refraction index is calculated theoretically. We demonstrate that for a given $kl>1$, where $k$ is the light wave vector, and $l$ is the transport mean free path, when {\em on average} the light propagation is diffusive, the likelihood for finding a random resonator increases dramatically with increasing the correlation radius of the disorder. Parameters of {\em most probable} resonators as functions of $Q$ and $kl$ are found.Comment: 6 pages including 2 figure

Understanding the evolution and spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas using complete genome sequences

Local transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was first detected in the Americas in December 2013, after which it spread rapidly throughout the Caribbean islands and American mainland, causing a major chikungunya fever epidemic. Previous phylogenetic analysis of CHIKV from a limited number of countries in the Americas suggests that an Asian genotype strain was responsible, except in Brazil where both Asian and East/Central/South African (ECSA) lineage strains were detected. In this study, we sequenced thirty-three complete CHIKV genomes from viruses isolated in 2014 from fourteen Caribbean islands, the Bahamas and two mainland countries in the Americas. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed that they all belonged to the Asian genotype and clustered together with other Caribbean and mainland sequences isolated during the American outbreak, forming an 'Asian/American' lineage defined by two amino acid substitutions, E2 V368A and 6K L20M, and divided into two well-supported clades. This lineage is estimated to be evolving at a mean rate of 5 x 10-4 substitutions per site per year (95% higher probability density, 2.9-7.9 x 10-4) and to have arisen from an ancestor introduced to the Caribbean (most likely from Oceania) in about March 2013, 9 months prior to the first report of CHIKV in the Americas. Estimation of evolutionary rates for individual gene regions and selection analyses indicate that (in contrast to the Indian Ocean Lineage that emerged from the ECSA genotype followed by adaptive evolution and with a significantly higher substitution rate) the evolutionary dynamics of the Asian/American lineage are very similar to the rest of the Asian genotype and natural selection does not appear to have played a major role in its emergence. However, several codon sites with evidence of positive selection were identified within the non-structural regions of Asian genotype sequences outside of the Asian/American lineage

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes