Fiscal Effects of Introducing New Social Standards in Ukraine

The article is aimed at studying and assessing the positive changes that occurred in the budgeting process due to changes in social standards in Ukraine during 2010-2020. The hypothesis testing is carried out on whether there is a link between changes in social standards such as the subsistence rate and the minimum wage, and the amount of tax revenues to the consolidated budget and the amount of budget expenditures. Modern approaches to assessing the impact of social standards are analyzed, and conclusion is made that fiscal effects are hardly studied in literature. Based on a comparative analysis of the dynamics of the established and actual subsistence rate and the main targets stated in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine for 2010-2020, quarterly regression models are built, in particular, with pseudo-observed variables. A significant gap has been observed between the established and actual subsistence rates, which increases over time. At the same time, the minimum wage is approaching the actual subsistence rate for employable population, which is a positive fact. The aggregate income of the population main exogenous variable in tax revenues models. A model of household income dependence on average wages, average pension and subsistence rate is built. It is shown that the increase in the minimum wage in 2017 did not have the desired direct fiscal effect on personal income tax, unified social tax revenues and public expenditure on social insurance. The indirect impact on value added tax and excise tax revenues, which could be expected due to the increase in the household purchasing power, is also insignificant. The reason for this is the halving of the ratio between the minimum and average wages due to its concealment, the high level of the shadow economy and artificial understatement. It is shown that the consolidated budget expenditures on social security and wages are more sensitive to changes in various social standards, thus creating risks of macroeconomic instability in Ukraine

The Model of Decision Support to Prevent the Transmission of a Financial Crisis to the Real Economy

The aim of the article is to form an integrated model to forecast, identify a financial crisis and minimize its spread to the real economy. The conceptual scheme reflecting the investigation of the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy is presented. It is based on the hypothesis that the development of a crisis in the financial sector of the economy precedes a crisis in the real economy, but it is possible to mitigate the consequences of the former and partially manage the crisis in the real economy by influencing the channels of its transmission at different stages of penetration. It is proved that the most appropriate for forming an integrated model of the transmission of a financial crisis is the use of simulation models, since such models allow testing the possibility of preventing the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy. Building a plan of experiments for the simulation model is based on the Graeco-Latin square methodology, which is due to the effectiveness of this tool in limiting the studied data ranges. In order to evaluate the results of the conducted experiments and choose an effective management model that will correspond to an optimal variant of crisis prevention, Harrington’s desirability function is chosen, which is based on the idea of converting the natural values of private responses into a dimensionless scale of desirability or preference. The function built is the basis for the formed approach to determining optimal and suboptimal solutions for minimizing the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy. As a result of the study, it was determined that only 20 % of the options (25 decisions) of possible management ones can have a positive result. The formed block of decision support models is an important component of the developed integrated model, which allows modeling the process of the transmission of a financial crisis from the burst of a bubble in the financial sector to the impact on certain parts of the real economy

A Methodological Approach to Evaluating the Progress of the Implementation of the Smart City Concept in Ukrainian Cities

Ukrainian cities are joining the global movement for digitalization. They have gradually started to use benefits of ICT, claiming their smartness and promoting newly implemented technological solutions. However, till the date we do not have a commonly accepted definition or framework for measuring their success. Based on the reviewed international and national frameworks, there proposed a methodological approach to evaluating the progress of Ukrainian cities in implementing the Smart Sustainable City Framework. The research takes into account both the theoretical base (components and definitions of Smart Sustainable City defined by different scholars) and practical side (the available evaluation methodologies). The developed Framework comprises two stages: a) creation of conditions for concept building; b) actual measurement of sustainability and smartness of cities, each of which including several dimensions. The model uses 54 indicators, the data being taken from both official statistical sources and survey data. The methodology has been used to measure the index of six selected Ukrainian cities that are considered quite progressive in terms of ICT usage and smart solution implementation. The results reveal that cities with officially adopted relevant strategies typically demonstrate better results than those that implement innovations on an ad-hoc basis

Determining an Optimal Structure of a Portfolio Containing Assets of Mature and Emerging Markets

In the modern world, derivatives on leading stock indices are very often the focus of attention of portfolio investors. Inclusion of such tools in a portfolio actually allows investing immediately in the economy of a particular country or its individual sector. The aim of the work is the formation of an optimal investment portfolio containing derivatives on stock indices of countries with mature and emerging stock markets. To achieve this goal, the study solves the following tasks: two optimal portfolios — the portfolio containing indices of developed countries and the portfolio containing indices of emerging countries — are formed; the mixed portfolio containing indices of both sectors is formed; a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of the resulting portfolios is carried out. To obtain an optimal portfolio structure, the Markowitz model is used. The results of applying this model allow to draw the following conclusions regarding the investment attractiveness of the stock market of mature and emerging economies. In terms of portfolio risk level, it is possible to obtain a couple of portfolios, one of which would contain only assets of mature markets, and the other — only assets of emerging ones. However, in this case, the level of profitability will be significantly lower in the portfolio consisting of assets of the mature sector. The mixed portfolio provides a much wider range of alternative investment options based on the efficient frontier, both in terms of the risk and profitability criterion

A Typology of Crises of Non-Economic Origin in the Context of Preventive Anti-Crisis Policy for Ukraine

The study is aimed at elaborating a typology of crises of non-economic origin, which will allow to allocate their characteristic features in terms of goals, main tasks, and groups of measures for preventive anti-crisis policy for Ukraine regarding the early post-war post-pandemic period along with long-term perspective. The article analyzes and summarizes the scientific achievements and developments of international organizations on the classification of crises in the development of socioeconomic systems. The diversity, repeatability and ambiguity of classification signs are displayed, but the utmost attention of scientists is focused on the classification of financial crises. Crises of non-economic origin in the scientific literature are considered without their connection with the socioeconomic development and anti-crisis policy of countries. Therefore, the authors of the article have developed a typology of crises of non-economic origin, which is directed towards identifying those signs of crisis that are most significant for the implementation and possibility of implementing preventative measures of a preventive anti-crisis policy. Its difference is the inclusion of a new classification sign of the layering of consequences, which allows to distinguish primary and secondary crises with common consequences (complex ones) from those in which the consequences undergo distortions and changes in the process of unfolding the crisis (superpositional ones). Similar in content classification signs that are used in the scientific literature (structural scale of coverage; object; nature of imbalances in the development of the economy, etc.) are summarized into one sign – the scale of the consequences. Together with a qualitative description of each type of crisis, the directions for developing such a policy are determined for each of the signs. The classification of crises, either of biological origin or caused by warfare, in Ukraine during 2020-2022 was carried out in accordance with the defined signs. The main differences between systemic crises of biological origin or systemic crises caused by warfare are determined from the point of view of economic policy

Fair Value Accounting Model for Stock Indices

When forming the risk portion of an investment portfolio, one may include into it both stocks of individual companies representing different sectors of the economy in different regions, and derivative financial instruments, such as futures on stock indices. The latter are an excellent instrument for investing in a country's stock, eliminating the necessity for the investor to solve the non-trivial problem of determining the optimal set of attractive assets, because, as a rule, the stock index includes the most successful companies in most industries. If one only decides to include stock indices in the portfolio on the basis of their current price, it can be assumed that in the moment one should invest in assets that have not gone up at all or enough, yet. However, this estimate is not objective, as indices have different volatility, and therefore, it is incorrect to compare the absolute size of the drawdown in crisis time, and those of the growth rate in the post-crisis period, if one wants to determine overvalued and undervalued assets. Obviously, when making the final decision on whether to include stock indices in the portfolio, it is also necessary to rely on the results of a fundamental analysis of these assets. So, the articles aims at determining the structure of the risk portion of the investment portfolio by identifying instruments that are underestimated in terms of their fundamental characteristics. To achieve the aim of the study, the following main tasks were solved: the initial set of exogenous factors influencing the dynamics of stock indices was determined; the parameters of the models of stock indices dependence on the factors influencing them are assessed, the corresponding projected values are calculated; a set of instruments is determined for including stock indices in the investment portfolio by comparing their real and model values. The models created make it possible to determine the optimal structure of an investment portfolio, which would include stock indices futures for such countries as Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, Great Britain, Germany and the USA

A Classification of Territorial Communities in Ukraine as an Instrumentarium for Effective Public Management of Spatial Development

The article substantiates the expediency of introducing an extended and multilevel classification of territorial communities in Ukraine on the basis of the use of various classification signs and features, as well as the development of appropriate instruments (methodical approach) to the formation of a generalized classification. Based on the generalization of the current approaches to existing varieties of territories by analyzing individual directions of their functioning and life support, instruments have been developed for the formation of a generalized classification of territorial communities in Ukraine on the basis of a combination of a wide range of features, which will further form universal recommendations for defining models and directions of spatial development of communities and develop targeted instruments for their development and support, depending on the specifics and features. The peculiarity of the developed classification of territorial communities of Ukraine is the allocation of three main blocks of classification features: block of resource conditions of spatial development, the purpose of which is to identify those resources of various types that the community has to ensure for its development; a block of achieving the development capacity, which is designed to assess the efficiency of resource use and substantiate the feasibility of special government support for community development; a block of the problem-oriented development, which identifies the main problems of the community that exist or may become relevant during the period of implementation of the community development strategy. The result of the practical application of the proposed instruments for the classification of territorial communities should be the creation of conditions for each of them ion order to determine the level of capacity for self-development, formation of development priorities, use of directions and opportunities of government support in the process of developing a model, strategy and plans for its implementation, application of the program-project approach to the spatial development of territorial communities in Ukraine, depending on the extant, relevant needs and future prospects for the development of the country and its territories, including in the period of post-war recovery and restoration

Assessment of the Ukrainian Industries’ Participation in Global Value Added Chains

The article aims at assessing the Ukrainian industries’ participation in global value-added chains and identifying prospects for intensifying these processes. The research methods used are the following: statistical analysis, comparison, and graphical analysis. The rise of the role of exporting products with high added value, as well as that of their integration into global value creation chains has been identified. A methodical approach to assessing the Ukrainian industries’ participation in global value creation chains is proposed, making it possible to determine the level of the country’s involvement in the process of international labor division by industries. The export pattern of Ukrainian industries has been analyzed, and the industries that have a significant export share in total exports and in the output composition have been identified. The main indicators of the country’s participation in global value-added chains have been calculated, namely: the national value added in the country’s exports by industry; the contribution of certain sectors of the economy to the national value added of gross exports; the share of the total national gross exports value added accounting for the national value added in specific industries. The positioning of industries in the plane of coordinates ‘share in the exports pattern – share in the national value added in exports’ has been carried out. It has been determined that the share of national value added in the exports of Ukrainian extractive industries is higher than the average one in the countries surveyed, while in the manufacturing sphere it is lower, which confirms the nearly total lack of knowledge-intensive and innovative stages of manufacturing in the latter, thus raising the share of low-grade products in exports. Several directions of the rational integration of Ukraine’s economy into global value added chains have been suggested. State policy measures to intensify the involvement of Ukrainian producers in global value added chains have been designed

The Approaches to Assessing the Impact of Crises of Non-Economic Origin on the Socioeconomic System of Ukraine

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodical approach to assessing the consequences of crises of non-economic origin and their synergistic effect for Ukraine. The article analyzes contemporary approaches to identifying the economic consequences of crises of natural, biological and military origin and shows that the situation in Ukraine is characterized by a layering of consequences of crises of both military and biological origin, which complicates the assessment. A classification of the consequences of crises of non-economic origin is proposed, which includes the scope of manifestation of consequences, pace and sequence, scale, duration of impact and time of occurrence, and is aimed at choosing methods for assessing and predicting the consequences. A schematic diagram of a scientific-methodical approach to assessing the consequences of crises of non-economic origin has been developed, which involves an assessment that is carried out in four dimensions: the direction of assessment (in accordance with the sphere of manifestations of the crisis), the subjective-objective (in accordance with the methods of assessment used), the temporal (in accordance with the stages of the emergence and unfolding of the crisis), and macro-mesoeconomic (in accordance with the scale of the crisis) dimensions, and thus allows to form a cognitive map of the consequences of a crisis of a certain etiology. It is shown that for Ukraine in the current crisis, it is expedient to single out two stages of assessment: the 1st – the deployment of the pandemic, the 2nd – military aggression against the background of the pandemic, as well as the use of expert assessment methods at the second stage. Based on the analysis of world experience, indicators for assessing the consequences of the crisis are proposed. The developed scientific-methodical approach allows to identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, to define causal relationships in the process of spreading in the economy and social sphere of the country of the crisis caused by both the pandemic and military aggression, is of universal nature, and can be used for researching the crises of various non-economic origins, also for developing a system for monitoring and preventing the spread of crises

The Patenting of Biotechnological Developments in Ukraine: Trends and Structure

The analysis of the trends and structure of patenting developments in the field of biotechnologies is carried out. The study is based on the information contained in the databases of WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization), which was used for international comparisons, and “Inventions (Utility Models) in Ukraine” of the Ukrainian Institute of Intellectual Property, which was used for a detailed study of patented developments at the national level. The analysis of patenting the Ukrainian developments for the period of 2000-2015 showed a weak patent activity of Ukraine at the international level. The largest number of active patents on biotechnology granted by the State Service for Intellectual Property of Ukraine to Ukrainian holders belongs to the subclass C12N – “Microorganisms or enzymes; their compositions; reproduction, preservation or storage of microorganisms; mutations or genetic engineering; nutrient media” and amounts to 315. In the structure of patents in the field of biotechnology with the C12N index that are owned by Ukrainian organizations, there prevail state scientific institutions of the NAS of Ukraine and UAAS (Ukrainian Academy of Agrarian Sciences). Representatives of the business sector among the patent holders are almost absent. Among the foreign patent holders the opposite trend is observed — representatives of business structures are leading. Thus, the prospects for the development of biotechnology in Ukraine depend considerably on intensifying the cooperation of scientific institutions with business, which should become a priority area of the state scientific and technical policy