Happiness and International Migration

In this paper, we consider the extent to which the aggregate happiness of a country affects the flow of people across its borders. We merge data from the World Values Survey, which produces happiness indices for 84 countries between 1981 and 2004, with three different migration datasets. We find that happiness has a U-shaped relationship with emigration rates: emigration rates fall in happiness for relatively unhappy countries, but rise for relatively happy countries. The U-shaped relationship also holds for migrant flows into the U.S. When analyzing net migration rates, we find that the reverse relationship exists. Net migration is associated with an increase in happiness for relatively unhappy countries, but after a threshold level of happiness, net migration is associated with a decrease in happiness. Our findings are robust to various empirical specifications and datasets.international migration, happiness, human development/migration

Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a sensitivity analysis

In “Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis,” Krusell et al. (2000) analyzed the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis as an explanation for the behavior of the U.S. skill premium. This paper shows that their model’s fit and the values of the estimated parameters are very sensitive to the data used: Alternative measures of the capital series predict skill premia that bear little resemblance to the data. We also include ten additional years of data to address the claim made by other authors that the evolution of the skill premium changed during the 1990s, but we find little evidence of this change.

Crude substitution: the cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the college premium

Higher oil price shocks benefit unskilled workers relative to skilled workers: Over the business cycle, energy prices and the skill premium display a strong negative correlation. This correlation is robust to different detrending procedures. We construct and estimate a model economy with energy use and heterogeneous skills and study its business cycle implications, in particular the cyclical behavior of oil prices and the skill premium. In our model economy, the skill premium and the ratio of hours worked by skilled workers to hours worked by unskilled workers are both negatively correlated with oil prices over the business cycle. For the skill premium and energy prices to move in opposite directions, the key ingredient is the larger substitutability of capital for unskilled labor than for skilled labor. The negative correlation arises even when energy and capital are fairly good substitutes.

Happiness and International Migration

In this paper, we consider the extent to which the aggregate happiness of a country affects the flow of people across its borders. We merge data from the World Values Survey, which produces happiness indices for 84 countries between 1981 and 2004, with three different migration datasets. We find that happiness has a U-shaped relationship with emigration rates: emigration rates fall in happiness for relatively unhappy countries, but rise for relatively happy countries. The U-shaped relationship also holds for migrant flows into the U.S. When analyzing net migration rates, we find that the reverse relationship exists. Net migration is associated with an increase in happiness for relatively unhappy countries, but after a threshold level of happiness, net migration is associated with a decrease in happiness. Our findings are robust to various empirical specifications and datasets

Evaluating the association of physical activity and weight gain in pregnancy

Previous research has shown that physical activity in pregnancy decreases the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes including development of gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, and the need for unplanned cesarean section. Research has also shown that excessive weight gain in pregnancy increases the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes. Tracking accurate physical activity in pregnancy is difficult using patient-reported data, however with commercially available and accurate physical activity monitors, objective data is more readily available. Our study is a feasibility study using objective data to track physical activity and weight gain in pregnancy

Effects of age-related differences in empathy on social economic decision-making

Background: The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision-making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-making are not well understood. Methods: On each of 20 consecutive trials in the UG-R, one player (“Proposer”) splits $10 with another player (“Responder”) who chooses either to accept (whereby both receive the proposed division) or reject (whereby neither receives anything). Trait cognitive and emotional empathy were measured using the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. Results: UG-R data were examined as a function of age and cognitive empathy. For “unfair” offers (i.e. offers less than$5), older Responders with high cognitive empathy showed less prosocial behavior and obtained greater payoffs than younger Responders with high cognitive empathy. Conclusions: High levels of cognitive empathy may differentially affect economic decision-making behavior in younger and older adults. For older adults, high cognitive empathy may play a role in obtaining high financial payoffs while for younger adults it may instead be involved in facilitating social relationships

Using Search Volume for Surveillance of Medication Prescribing

OBJECTIVE: To validate search volume estimation for outpatient medication prescribing. INTRODUCTION: Investigators have used the volume of internet search queries to model disease incidence, especially influenza and general consumer behavior [1]. Our group has used search volume to model interest in FDA safety alerts and adverse drug event incidence. We found evidence of changes in search behavior following warnings and the expected relationship between search volume and adverse drug event incidence. Thus, search volume may help provide near real time surveillance of drug use patterns to help monitor and mitigate risk to the population from adverse drug events. However, the use of search query volume as a proxy for drug use has yet to be validated. We attempt to validate search volume estimation of drug utilization in three ways: 1) explore seasonal variations in search volume and outpatient utilization, 2) monitor change between substitute drugs following patent expirations and 3) use search volume estimation methods to estimate TB incidence. METHODS: Google Insights normalized search share was used to characterize interest in a drug. The estimates of drug utilization were derived from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), a nationally representative sample of the US population. Substitute drugs and notable patent expirations between 2004 and 2011 were obtained via pharmacist review. TB incidence was derived from the MMWR yearly Summary of Notifiable Diseases. To validate the assumption that search volume relates to drug utilization, we estimated weekly utilization for 9 drugs (amoxicillin, azelastine, azithromycin, benzomatate, cefdinir, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin and olopatadine) using MEPS for 2004–2009. The weekly utilization volume was cross-correlated with the Google Insights series with lags ranging from −6 to +6 months. To compare the rate of substitution between name brand and generic drugs following the expiration of a patent, we treated the generic drug search volume as the independent variable and the name brand as the dependent variable. Using OLS, we calculated the marginal rate of substitution between the name brand and generic search queries. Preliminary work has focused on substitution of generic simvastatin for branded Zocor. As TB treatment regimens usually include a fixed set of medications (isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide, ethambutol), the utilization of these drugs should correspond with TB incidence. We modeled national TB incidence using OLS with search volume and an indicator for the month of December. The number of reported cases in December is inconsistent with the seasonality of TB in the US and is a significant departure from the expected value given the rest of the series. We suspect this is due to a reporting artifact and include the indicator variable in our model to mitigate the effects of this inconsistency. RESULTS: The seasonality of drug use is reflected in search volume. Only 3 of the 9 drugs (33%, amoxicillin, azithromycin and cefdinir) had enough volume in the MEPS to create a reasonable time series. All 3 drugs had statistically significant positive correlations at lags near 0 and significant negative correlations at lags of +/− 6 months. Amoxicillin, for example, had a significant correlation at lags around 0 of 0.55–0.60 and correlations at a lag of −5 or +5 months of −0.4. The magnitude of this correlation coefficient would suggest that the two series track closely. Patent expirations (and the resulting emergence of generic medications with new names) are apparent in search volume as well. We find a strong negative relationship between search volume for simvastatin and Zocor. Specifically, a one unit increase in search volume for ‘simvastatin’ is associated with a 0.96 (p < 0.0001) unit decrease in the search volume for ‘Zocor.’ The simple model for TB incidence demonstrates the utility of using drugs as queries for disease. Search volume was a significant (p = 0.006) and positive predictor of TB incidence controlling for the December aberrations. CONCLUSIONS: The Google Insights search volume for a set of highly seasonal drugs is highly correlated with community utilization as measured by seasonal variance in utilization, change in search and prescribing patterns and expected prescribing following TB. The ability to estimate use of drugs from search volume presents a new method for keyword selection in search based incidence models and a method to monitor changes in the pharmaceutical market

Happiness and International Migration

International migration, Happiness, Human development, Income,