14 research outputs found
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Evaluation of the radionuclide tracer test conducted at the project Gnome Underground Nuclear Test Site, New Mexico
A radionuclide tracer test was conducted in 1963 by the U.S. Geological Survey at the Project Gnome underground nuclear test site, approximately 40 km southeast of Carlsbad, New Mexico. The tracer study was carried out under the auspices of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) to study the transport behavior of radionuclides in fractured rock aquifers. The Culebra Dolomite was chosen for the test because it was considered to be a reasonable analogue of the fractured carbonate aquifer at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), the principal location of U.S. underground nuclear tests. Project Gnome was one of a small number of underground nuclear tests conducted by the AEC at sites distant from the NTS. The Gnome device was detonated on December 10, 1961 in an evaporate unit at a depth of 360 m below ground surface. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) implemented an environmental restoration program to characterize, remediate, and close these offsite nuclear test areas. An early step in this process is performance of a preliminary risk analysis of the hazard posed by each site. The Desert Research Institute has performed preliminary hydrologic risk evaluations for the groundwater transport pathway at Gnome. That evaluation included the radioactive tracer test as a possible source because the test introduced radionuclides directly into the Culebra Dolomite, which is the only aquifer at the site. This report presents a preliminary evaluation of the radionuclide tracer test as a source for radionuclide migration in the Culebra Dolomite. The results of this study will assist in planning site characterization activities and refining estimates of the radionuclide source for comprehensive models of groundwater transport st the Gnome site
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Assessing Recharge and Geological Model Uncertainty at the Climax Mine Area of the Nevada Test Site
Hydrologic analyses are commonly based on a single conceptual-mathematical model. Yet hydrologic environments are open and complex, rendering them prone to multiple interpretations and mathematical descriptions. Considering conceptual model uncertainty is a critical process in hydrologic uncertainty assessment. This study assesses recharge and geologic model uncertainty for the Climax mine area of the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. Five alternative recharge models have been independently developed for Nevada and the Death Valley area of California. These models are (1) the Maxey-Eakin model, (2 and 3) a distributed parameter watershed model with and without a runon-runoff component, and (4 and 5) a chloride mass-balance model with two zero-recharge masks, one for alluvium and one for both alluvium and elevation. Similarly, five geological models have been developed based on different interpretations of available geologic information. One of them was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model; the other four were developed by Bechtel Nevada for the Yucca Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU). The Climax mine area is in the northern part of the Yucca Flat CAU, which is within the DVRFS. A total of 25 conceptual models are thus formulated based on the five recharge and five geologic models. The objective of our work is to evaluate the conceptual model uncertainty, and quantify its propagation through the groundwater modeling process. A model averaging method is applied that formally incorporates prior information and field measurements into our evaluation. The DVRFS model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used as the modeling framework, into which the 25 models are incorporated. Conceptual model uncertainty is first evaluated through expert elicitation based on prior information possessed by two expert panels. Their perceptions of model plausibility are quantified as prior model probabilities, which are then updated by the site measurements of head and flux through inverse modeling. Posterior model probabilities of the models are then evaluated after the updating process, and used as weights in the summation of each model's mean predictions and associated predictive uncertainty. Deterministic simulation results using calibrated parameters are examined to investigate different model predictions of each alternative model. Parametric uncertainty of each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and the uncertainty is compared for each model to evaluate uncertainty bounds. Finally, the uncertainty bounds of model averaging, incorporating both parametric and conceptual model uncertainty, are evaluated and compared with those of individual models. It is shown that model averaging provides larger uncertainty bounds, indicating that more uncertainty is incorporated, rendering model predictions more scientifically defensible
Using Uncertainty to Guide Characterization, Closure and Long-term Management of an Underground Nuclear Test Site
No feasible remediation technology has been identified for nuclear test cavities such that site management and institutional controls must be relied on to minimize the possibility of public exposure to these legacies of the Cold War. The most common exposure pathway of concern is migration of radionuclides with groundwater. Prediction of flow and transport behavior in the sparsely observed subsurface environment is inherently uncertain, but developing effective management strategies demands such predictions. An agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Nevada provides a framework for addressing uncertainty in site management decisions. The central element of the framework is calculation of a predictive contaminant boundary at a specified confidence interval. This boundary is defined as a three-dimensional region encompassing all groundwater that contains radionuclides at concentrations higher than Safe Drinking Water Act limits at any time through a 1,000-year period, at a 95-percent confidence interval. In the process of predicting this boundary at the Shoal underground nuclear test site in rural Nevada, some interesting challenges were encountered. A stochastic groundwater flow and transport model was developed for the site using historic site data and information from four characterization wells drilled in 1996. Though the predicted mean transport plume was located within the existing site land boundary, uncertainty in the predictions was very large such that the 95-percent confidence interval extended beyond the site boundary. This level of uncertainty was unacceptable to DOE, prompting additional site characterization with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in contaminant migration predictions. The numerical groundwater flow model was used to identify the optimum data collection activities for uncertainty reduction. This Data Decision Analysis guided drilling and testing of additional wells. Significant revision occurred to the groundwater model as a result of the new data. The revised model was deemed acceptable by both DOE and the State of Nevada, and has been used to determine the contaminant boundary for the site, the calculation of which required choices regarding risk or concentration metrics and whether to focus on the uncertainty of where the contaminants might be or where the groundwater is free of contaminants. The model was also used to develop an optimum monitoring system, the installation of which provided another opportunity to reduce uncertainty as data were collected for model validation. The short-term validation process, and long-term monitoring, provide data that can feed back into the stochastic flow and transport model to cull poorly performing model realizations and reduce uncertainty in the model predictions
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Development of a Groundwater Management Model for the Project Shoal Area
This document describes the development of a user-friendly and efficient groundwater management model of the Project Shoal Area (PSA and surrounding area that will allow the U.S. Department of Energy and State of Nevada personnel to evaluate the impact of proposed water-use scenarios. The management model consists of a simple hydrologic model within an interactive groundwater management framework. This framework is based on an object user interface that was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and has been used by the Desert Research Institute researchers and others to couple disparate environmental resource models, manage temporal and spatial data, and evaluate model results for management decision making. This framework was modified and applied to the PSA and surrounding Fairview Basin. The utility of the management model was demonstrated through the application of hypothetical future scenarios including mineral mining, regional expansion of agriculture, and export of water to large urban areas outside the region. While the results from some of the scenarios indicated potential impacts to groundwater levels near the PSA and others did not, together they demonstrate the utility of the management tool for the evaluation of proposed changes in groundwater use in or near the PSA
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Modeling to Support Groundwater Contaminant Boundaries for the Shoal Underground Nuclear Test
Groundwater flow and radionuclide transport at the Shoal underground nuclear test are characterized using three-dimensional numerical models, based on site-specific hydrologic data. The objective of this modeling is to provide the flow and transport models needed to develop a contaminant boundary defining the extent of radionuclide-contaminated groundwater at the site throughout 1,000 years at a prescribed level of confidence. This boundary will then be used to manage the Project Shoal Area for the protection of the public and the environment
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Remediation of the Faultless Underground Nuclear Test: Moving Forward in the Face of Model Uncertainty
The Faultless underground nuclear test, conducted in central Nevada, is the site of an ongoing environmental remediation effort that has successfully progressed through numerous technical challenges due to close cooperation between the U.S. Department of Energy, (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration and the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP). The challenges faced at this site are similar to those of many other sites of groundwater contamination: substantial uncertainties due to the relative lack of data from a highly heterogeneous subsurface environment. Knowing when, where, and how to devote the often enormous resources needed to collect new data is a common problem, and one that can cause remediators and regulators to disagree and stall progress toward closing sites. For Faultless, a variety of numerical modeling techniques and statistical tools are used to provide the information needed for DOE and NDEP to confidently move forward along the remediation path to site closure. A general framework for remediation was established in an agreement and consent order between DOE and the State of Nevada that recognized that no cost-effective technology currently exists to remove the source of contaminants in nuclear cavities. Rather, the emphasis of the corrective action is on identifying the impacted groundwater resource and ensuring protection of human health and the environment from the contamination through monitoring. As a result, groundwater flow and transport modeling is the linchpin in the remediation effort. An early issue was whether or not new site data should be collected via drilling and testing prior to modeling. After several iterations of the Corrective Action Investigation Plan, all parties agreed that sufficient data existed to support a flow and transport model for the site. Though several aspects of uncertainty were included in the subsequent modeling work, concerns remained regarding uncertainty in individual parameter values and the additive effects of multiple sources of uncertainty. Ultimately, the question was whether new data collection would substantially reduce uncertainty in the model. A Data Decision Analysis (DDA) was performed to quantify uncertainty in the existing model and determine the most cost-beneficial activities for reducing uncertainty, if reduction was needed. The DDA indicated that though there is large uncertainty present in some model parameters, the overall uncertainty in the calculated contaminant boundary during the 1,000-year regulatory timeframe is relatively small. As a result, limited uncertainty reduction can be expected from expensive characterization activities. With these results, DOE and NDEP have determined that the site model is suitable for moving forward in the corrective action process. Key to this acceptance is acknowledgment that the model requires independent validation data and the site requires long-term monitoring. Developing the validation and monitoring plans, and calculating contaminant boundaries are the tasks now being pursued for the site. The significant progress made for the site is due to the close cooperation and communication of the parties involved and an acceptance and understanding of the role of uncertainty
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Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Withdrawal within the Mercury Valley Administrative Groundwater Basin, Nevada
A detailed, transient, three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater flow model was created for the Mercury Valley Administrative Groundwater Basin (MVB). The MVB is a distinct groundwater basin as defined by the State of Nevada and is located partially within the boundary of the Nevada Test Site. This basin is being studied as a potential location for new industrial facilities and therefore would be subject to Nevada water-use limitations. The MVB model was used to estimate the volume of water that could be withdrawn from Mercury Valley without inducing laterally or vertically extensive water-table effects. In each model simulation, water-table drawdown was limited to a maximum of 0.5 m at the boundary of the basin and held within the screened interval of the well. Water withdrawal from Nevada groundwater basins is also limited to the State-defined perennial yield for that area. The perennial yield for the MVB is 27,036 m{sup 3}/day. The one existing water-supply well in Mercury Valley is capable of sustaining significantly higher withdrawal rates than it currently produces. Simulations showed this single well could produce 50 percent of the basin?s perennial yield with limited water-table drawdown. Pumping from six hypothetical water-supply wells was also simulated. Each hypothetical well was placed in an area of high hydraulic conductivity and far from the basin's boundaries. Each of these wells was capable of producing at least 50 percent of the basin's perennial yield. One of the hypothetical wells could simulate 100 percent of the perennial yield while staying within drawdown limitations. Multi-well simulations where two or more water-supply wells were simultaneously pumping were also conducted. These simulations almost always resulted in very limited lateral and vertical drawdown and produced 100 percent of Mercury Valley's perennial yield. A water-budget analysis was also conducted for each of the various stress simulations. Each of the stress scenarios was compared to a baseline scenario where existing water-supply wells in the model domain were pumped at 2003-2004 average pumping rates. Water-budget analyses showed increased flow from the constant-head boundaries on the north, east, and west sides of the model. Flow to the southern, head-dependent boundary and to springs in the Ash Meadows area remained unchanged
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Modeling to Support Groundwater Contaminant Boundaries for the Shoal Underground Nuclear Test
The purpose of this work is to characterize groundwater flow and contaminant transport at the Shoal underground nuclear test through numerical modeling using site-specific hydrologic data. The ultimate objective is the development of a contaminant boundary, a model-predicted perimeter defining the extent of radionuclide-contaminated groundwater from the underground test throughout 1,000 years at a prescribed level of confidence. This boundary will be developed using the numerical models described here, after they are approved for that purpose by DOE and NDEP
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Evaluation of groundwater flow and transport at the Shoal underground nuclear test: An interim report
Since 1962, all United States nuclear tests have been conducted underground. A consequence of this testing has been the deposition of large amounts of radioactive materials in the subsurface, sometimes in direct contact with groundwater. The majority of this testing occurred on the Nevada Test Site, but a limited number of experiments were conducted in other locations. One of these is the subject of this report, the Project Shoal Area (PSA), located about 50 km southeast of Fallon, Nevada. The Shoal test consisted of a 12-kiloton-yield nuclear detonation which occurred on October 26, 1963. Project Shoal was part of studies to enhance seismic detection of underground nuclear tests, in particular, in active earthquake areas. Characterization of groundwater contamination at the Project Shoal Area is being conducted by the US Department of Energy (DOE) under the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) with the State of Nevada Department of Environmental Protection and the US Department of Defense (DOD). This order prescribes a Corrective Action Strategy (Appendix VI), which, as applied to underground nuclear tests, involves preparing a Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP), Corrective Action Decision Document (CADD), Corrective Action Plan, and Closure Report. The scope of the CAIP is flow and transport modeling to establish contaminant boundaries that are protective of human health and the environment. This interim report describes the current status of the flow and transport modeling for the PSA