Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model of solar flares

To describe the distributionof the total number of flares per time unit p(E), we bring forward a new self-organized critical model subject to uniform small-scale magnetic element and driving and dissipation. Due to diversity and complex interrelation of processes in the solar atmosphere, one needs to find the “main” process that “drives” the other ones. Magnetic-field reconnection in the sunatmosphere was usually treated as the mainpro cess by the SOC models. We, however, give the crucial role to the annihilation of oppositely charged magnetic elements on the sun surface, the elements being intersections of magnetic tubes with the sunsurface

Formal methods for detection of large-scale electoral fraud on the material of the federal elections 1999-2018

Abstract: I offer 4 different tests for the detection of large-scale electoral fraud at the level of subjects of the federation. These tests bases only on official data on election results and do not use any assumptions about voter behavior or reference results.Note: Research direction:Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technic

Moscow political sociology on the results of the elections of 2012-18

Abstract: For the last 5 Moscow elections, I decompose the values of various types of turnout (for power, for opposition and against all) into historical and geographical components. On this basis, I demonstrate a gradual decrease in the competitiveness of elections and an increase in the mobilization of the administrative-dependent electorate. I find the anti-correlation of loyalist and opposition political activity of voters. The educational level of voters is the most important determinant of both loyalist and opposition activities. The city turns out to have a group of peripheral districts with abnormally high loyalist activity.Note: Research direction:Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technic

Dynamics of the relative price level of oil-exporting countries

Abstract: I reconstruct for a number of countries monthly values of purchasing power parity on the basis of its annual values and consumer price index values. I demonstrate the possibility to approximate with good accuracy the relative price level for oil exporting countries with a power-law function of oil prices. I determine the indices of this dependence for Russia, Canada, Norway and Kazakhstan. I analyze the influence of the oil conjuncture on the stability of the US dollar as a universal unit of measurement.Note: Research direction:Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technic