C-KE/I: A pragmatic framework for policy innovation

Improving policy making is key to address numerous contemporary challenges such as the environmental crisis, climate change, global inequality, financial crises, or pandemics. Policy making is a sequence of stages structuring policy problems and choices made to address them. Among these stages, policy design is a crucial phase since it impacts the quality of the policy alternatives being considered. Policy design is, however, largely neglected in the scientific literature, and in practice it is mainly conducted informally. Design theory, and more specifically Concept-Knowledge (C-K) theory, originally aimed at assisting the process of creating marketable objects, offers promises to formalize and rationalize policy design. We critically analyze this theory, showing that, despite its strengths, as it stands it is ill-adapted to support the innovative design of policy alternatives. For that purpose, we propose a framework, C-KE/I. This framework, which is inspired by and compatible with C-K, appraises innovation based on the explicit or implicit modal statements held by a certain individual or group (“E/I” stands for Explicit vs. Implicit). Through an ex-post analysis of a case study—the search for innovative policy solutions to water management problems in the Apulia Region, Italy—we illustrate the practical applicability and usefulness of our framework

Fuzzy cognitive mapping to support multi-agent decisions in development of urban policymaking

The awareness about environmental complexity involves real-time knowledge and demands urban planning initiatives. Knowledge is multiform, multi-agent and mirrors environmental complexity. Problems characterizing urban sustainability particularly claim non-expert knowledge, being informal, puzzling, uncertain, incomplete, hard to be handled, formalized, modelled. This study utilizes Fuzzy cognitive maps to explore such complexity and support multiagent decisions. It concerns the scenario-building process of the new plan of Taranto (Italy), a paradigmatic example of decaying industrial area, heavily characterized by social fragmentation and environment degradation. This approach aims at structuring environmental problems, modelling future strategies and contributing to build a multi-agent decision support system for complex urban planning contexts

Teaching Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in Engineering, Ecology and Environmental Sciences: A Concise Course Based on the Water Management and Population Dynamics Models

Systems Thinking and adequate modelling skills related to System Dynamics (SD) are essential for sustainable functioning of human society. The process of learning these skills can be considerably facilitated through hands-on experience with modern interactive tools in a play-like activity. Here we present a concise hands-on course on SD Modelling and Systems Thinking, give a brief description of its teaching materials (available online for free download), and discuss its potential developments, overall relevance and further implications. The course contains a session on ‘Systems Thinking’, and two hands-on sessions aiming to provide basic and more advanced modelling skills. Central to the latter are the examples of structural modifications for the Ebbsfleet Garden City water management model. The model represents complex processes associated with a multitude of interconnected social, technical and environmental issues. This publication provides both an important update of this model incorporating a dimensional analysis and the hands-on teaching support designed to aid knowledge transfer. It is envisaged that, with modifications, this freely downloadable course could be of use for modules related to a wide range of fundamental and applied disciplines, including e.g., Ecology, Geography, Engineering, Social and Environmental Sciences. It is expected that University students and other users will not only benefit from enhancing their understanding of the complexity of the specific problems considered by the examples used, but will also gain valuable basic system modelling skills through ‘learning by doing’. The teaching materials presented here may be particularly useful for environmental projects involving participatory approaches

Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: Lessons learnt from the quantification in a participatory System Dynamics model

System Dynamics simulation models are commonly used for exploring, structuring and managing complex problems in order to design more effective policies and inform decision-making. They are often used to investigate areas in which limited knowledge is available, describing nonlinear relationships and including variables representing intangible elements of the system. Indeed, SD practitioners build and depend on formal simulation models to overcome the cognitive limitations to grasp the dynamic complexity of the problem situation, and to make reliable behavioural inferences. While this explorative nature is one of the key advantages of SD models, it also represents a major challenge for modellers working on the quantification and parametrization of the qualitative aspects of a (participatory) model, namely soft variables and data scarce contexts, especially when it is not possible to apply conventional analytical methods. There is a limited availability of procedures to obtain and analyse qualitative information. This paper investigates quantification good practices; on the other side, it describes a quantification process carried out during a participatory SD modelling process on the use of natural space in Thamesmead, an area undergoing urban regeneration in London, United Kingdom

The importance of eliciting stakeholders’ system boundary perceptions for problem structuring and decision-making

Differences in system boundaries and problem framings are unavoidable in multi-organisational decision-making. Unstructured problems, such as the grand challenges, are characterised by the existence of multiple actors with different perspectives and conflicting interests, and they require a coordinated effort from multiple organisations. Within this context, this paper aims to understand stakeholders’ perceptions of system boundaries and problem framings, and their potential effects on decision-making by systematically comparing different stakeholder groups’ causal maps around the same shared concern. Bridging notions from Operational Research, System Dynamics and Organisational Studies, the comparison is based on a novel type of thematic analysis of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) built with each stakeholder group on their perceptions of a given system. The proposed integrated approach combines qualitative with quantitative analysis, such as the centrality of the variables and the structure of the CLDs. Such CLDs comparison provides an intuitive way to visualise differences and similarities of the thematic clusters of variables, underlining factors influencing the shared concern. This could be considered a starting point for more shared understanding as well as more integrated holistic perceptions of the system and, consequently, a more systemic decision-making. Furthermore, for the sake of replicability, this paper also presents a qualitative participatory System Dynamics modelling process aimed to define the key aspects of a problem for each group of stakeholders to support a collaborative multi-organisational decision-making process. The research is based on the activities carried out for an urban regeneration case study in Thamesmead, London, United Kingdom

A balancing act between stratification and EMT in cultured human thymic epithelial cells

The thymus is the primary organ for T cell differentiation and maturation. Its stroma forms a characteristic sponge-like 3D structure mainly composed of thymic epithelial cells. Despite of this unconventional epithelial architecture, TECs express markers associated with epidermal specification and differentiation. We have uncovered that the human thymus contains a population of clonogenic TECs that can be extensively expanded in a culture system originally developed for skin keratinocyte stem cells. In vitro, human TECs (hTECs) can give rise to four morphologically distinct colony-types and express markers of stratified epitheliaâs basal layers, such as P63, K5/K14 and CD49f. We were able to demonstrate that cultured hTECs can be split in two distinct subpopulations based on their EpCAM expression level. EpCAM+ hTECs only give rise to stratified colonies that contain squame-like cells and express markers of epidermal differentiation, whereas EpCAM- hTECs mostly give rise to non-stratifying colonies but have the capacity to generate EpCAM+ hTECs. EpCAM- hTECs maintain a basal epithelial identity but display hallmarks of EMT, such as the upregulation of ZEB1, the loss of CDH1 and a reduced expression of the miR-200 family members. We were also able to show that miR-200c overexpression is sufficient to convert EPCAM- hTECs into EpCAM+ ones, implying a crucial role for the ZEB/miR-200 double-negative feedback loop in the control of stratification and EMT in cultured hTECs. Our work suggests that hTECs possess an intrinsic stratification program of functional importance, not likely to result from promiscuous gene expression. We speculate that the maintenance of the thymic tridimensional epithelial network requires a fine balance between stratification and EMT, which could be regulated by the ZEB/miR-200 double-negative feedback loop. In this context, cultured hTECs represent an insightful system to better understand the mechanisms governing epithelial stratification and plasticit

Struttura della comunità macrobentonica in torrenti alpini: una "naturale" risposta ecologica al riscaldamento climatico

The predominant influence of physico-chemical conditions on community structure in terms of abundance, species richness and diversity of macroinvertebrate assemblages in headwater streams is well documented in literature, but its implications on body size distribution has been not yet considered. Organism size is one of the key determinants of community structure, and how biomass is partitioned among the biota may determine the efficiency of relevant ecological processes. Understanding how the distribution of biomass is linked to abiotic conditions we could predict the effects of environmental changes on aquatic ecosystem processes, particularly in the case of a community with a relative poor composition and with simplified food web structure, like it is present in alpine freshwater systems. For these reasons, we compared the taxonomic structure and individual size distribution of macroinvertebrate assemblages of three Alpine streams presented similar geomorphology, water chemistry, and food chain structure, but different water thermal regimes, mainly influenced by different types of water source. Therefore, temperature was the only significant independent factor that influenced each scenario, and the relation of this variable to biological responses could be measured directly. Our results show that hydromorfological parameters, physico-chemical characteristics and biotic factors explain much of the variability of macroinvertebrate taxonomical structural attributes, but they do not influence body size where the low temperatures have been detected as the main limiting factor. Temperature acts as a key-driver controlling taxonomical structure and invertebrate body size distribution. In agreement with previous findings, higher values of abundance and species richness correspond to warmer temperatures, as well as shifts of biomass distribution towards smaller size classes. Observed patterns underline the relevance of possible implications of global warming on the robustness and functioning (e.g. increase of productivity, functional shift in the food-webs) of high-altitude and high-latitude sensitive ecosystems, such as Alpine headwater streams

Expansion of a VE-Cadherin+CD45+ population in the yolk sac upon Etv2 overexpression in the mouse embryo - Effects of BMP and Wnt signaling inhibition on the differentiation of a Flk1+ extraembryonic mesoderm in vitro model

The difficulty to find compatible donors for bone marrow transplantation makes the need for an alternative source of HSCs urgent. HSC derived from patient-specific iPS cells are ideal candidates for this purpose. Nevertheless, although HSCs are the best characterized adult stem cells, the in vitro generation and expansion of bone fide HSCs still has not been achieved without transgene insertion. Successful derivation of HSCs from ES cells or iPS cells will require a comprehensive understanding of inductive signals and downstream effectors involved in the normal arising of HSCs during embryonic development. BMP and Wnt signaling pathways play a very important role in this differentiation process. Here, we report how BMP and Wnt signaling inhibition cooperatively alter the differentiation of Flk1+PDGFRα- cells after reculture in serum-free, feeder layer-free conditions. This data will be useful in determining the factors that have to be added to a chemically defined culture medium aimed at derivation of bone fide HSC in vitro. In the second part of this master’s project, we studied the spatial and temporal localization requirements of Etv2 expression, a key regulator of the earliest events in the development of the hematopoietic and vascular systems. To gain more insight on this matter, we conditionally knocked-in Etv2 in the early endothelial compartment, using a Tie2Cre system. This leaded to an embryonically lethal phenotype by E11.5, and most interestingly, to the expansion of a VE-Cadherin+CD45+ population in the E10.5 yolk sac. We believe that these cells represent a increased pool of immature pre-definitive hematopoietic stem cells, thus underlining further the importance of Etv2 in the differentiation process towards hematopoietic, and endothelial lineages in the mouse embryo

Organizational maturity for co-creation: Towards a multi-attribute decision support model for public organizations

The paper conceptualizes a multi-attribute decision support model for the assessment of organizational maturity for co-creation, specifically for public organizations. This is achieved on the basis of a systematic literature review (i.e. content analysis) and analysis of two European case studies of promising collaborative practices (from UK and Slovenia). The co-creation drivers and barriers elicited from these two sources are integrated in a decision support model, thus setting the layout of a multi-attribute decision support model for the assessment of organizational maturity for co-creation. The final model conceptualized here consists of 25 attributes or criteria grouped into three categories: organization capacity, staff capacity, and a wider political and normative context in which public organizations act

Drinking water supply in resilient cities: Notes from L'Aquila earthquake case study

Disasters impacts on urban environment are the result of interactions among natural and human systems, which are intimately linked each other. What is more, cities are directly dependent on infrastructures providing essential services (Lifeline Systems, LS). The operation of LS in ordinary conditions as well as after disasters is crucial. Among the LS, drinking water supply deserves a critical role for citizens. The present work summarizes some preliminary activities related to an ongoing EU funded research project. The main aim of the paper is to define a System Dynamic Model (SDM) to assess the evolution of resilience of a drinking water supply system in case of natural disasters, with particular attention to the role of both ‘structural’ and ‘non-structural’ parameters. Reflections are carried out on L’Aquila (Italy) case study, since drinking water infrastructures were significantly stressed during the 2009 earthquake, causing a limited functionality in the aftermath of the event. Furthermore, the reallocation of citizens in temporary shelters determined a change in the demand pattern, requiring a dynamic adaptation of the infrastructure. Based on an innovative approach to resilience, the model was developed also to simulate different emergency management scenarios, corresponding to different disaster management strategies