気候変動と地域住民生活 : 中部山地ネパールのチェパン民族におけるその脆弱性、影響と適応に関する研究

広島大学(Hiroshima University)博士(学術)Doctor of Philosophydoctora

Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-

Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical (1978-2008) climatic data and yield data for the food-crops. The yield growth rate of all the food-crops is positive. However, the growth rate for all crops, except potato and wheat, is below population growth rate during the period. Climate variables like temperature and precipitation are the important determinants of crop yields. Trend of precipitation is neither increasing nor decreasing significantly during this period. However, temperature is increasing by 0.7 0C during the period. Climate variables show some influences on the yield of these major food-crops in Nepal. Increase in summer rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to rice yield. Also, increase in summer rain and minimum temperature has positive impact on potato yield. However, increase in summer rain and maximum temperature adversely affected the yield of maize and millet. Increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current trend of winter rain and temperature. Consideration of spatial variation in similar type of study in Nepal that will be helpful in identifying the region more vulnerable to climate change in terms of crop yield is highly recommended.Climate variables; temperature; rainfall; food-crops; Nepal

Poverty and Food Insecurity in Nepal A Review

Nepal being the poorest country in the world, poverty remains one of the crucial development agenda in Nepal since it started its development effort in 1956. Therefore, this review paper analyzes the poverty and food insecurity in Nepal. Macro economic indicators of the country i.e., Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and inflation rate shows that the country is historically a low growth country with inflation rate always higher than the GDP growth rate. Therefore, macroeconomic indicators are not in favorable condition to tackle the overarching problem of poverty incidence in the country. Since 1976/77, poverty incidence is in increasing trend in Nepal. It was only in 2003/04, some progress in reducing poverty was reported, which was mainly due to the significantly higher inflow of remittance compared to earlier years, rapid urbanization, and an increase in non-farm incomes. This resulted not only in the decline in proportion of population suffering from poverty but also decline in the absolute number of population suffering from poverty. However, such decline in incidence of poverty was achieved at the cost of increased inequality.The gini coefficient increased from 0.24 in the year 1984/85 to 0.41 in 2003/04. Imbalanced growth in rural and urban areas could be the reason for increase in gini coefficient. Reduction of poverty in urban areas remains always high compared to that of rural areas. Therefore, poverty incidence remains always the highest in Mid-western and Farwestern rural hills. Also, poverty and food insecurity is the highest among female headed household, dalit and ethnic communities, small landholding households, households engaged in laboring and agriculture. This is mainly due to unequal distribution of resources such as land, social discrepancy, and lack of access to basic social and economic structures. Government has been giving the fi rst priority to the reduction of poverty since eighth five year plan (1992). But the government’s programs are failed to reach the target population. For instance government programs represent less than 10% of the national food deficit. Therefore, besides in-depth analysis of poverty at household level in order to understand location specifi c problem of poverty and food insecurity, expansion of government programs focusing on targeted population is very critical in dealing with the problems of poverty and food insecurity.poverty; food-insecurity; socio-economics; inequality;

Collection and marketing of non-timber forest products by the Chepang community in Chitwan district of Nepal

Chepangs are highly marginalized indigenous nationalities of Nepal, who live nearby the forests that are rich in Non-timber Forest Products (NTFPs) of commercial importance. These NTFPs can be a potential source of income for Chepangs. This study describes the role of Chepangs in the marketing channel of those NTFPs and analyses the household socio-economic characteristics that influence the collection and marketing of NTFPs by Chepangs in Shaktikhor VDC of Chitwan district using backward multiple regression method. Empirical evidences show that collection and marketing of NTFPs is not an attractive source of income especially for those relatively better-off Chepang households who possess higher landholdings, food self-sufficiency, and income from other alternative sources. This is because the current price offered for the NTFPs collected by the community is very nominal, that do not even cover the labour costs involved. Praja Cooperative Limited (PCL), a Chepang community based institution in Shaktikhor, is struggling to provide better prices for Chepangs. However, it is facing challenges due to limited institutional management capacity of Chepangs. Further empowerment of PCL can contribute to improve the bargaining power of Chepang community in NTFP trade.backward multiple regression, household socio-economic characteristics, indigenous nationalities, marketing channel, Praja Cooperative Limited

Large Cardamom (Amomum Subulatum Roxb.) Production, Marketing and Trade in the Indian Sub-continent <Article>

Large cardamom contributes significantly to the household and regional economies in the Eastern Himalayas of the Indian sub-continent, and to the national economy as well. This paper aims to assess the dynamics of large cardamom production, marketing, and trade in Bhutan, Nepal, and India. The assessment is based on data compiled through several government statistics and publications. A brief field visit was also conducted in Birtamod, Nepal, in September 2017. Nepal and India are suffering a loss in their cardamom yield due to disease infestation, poor crop management (including aged plantation), and changing climate. India has a fairly organized market for large cardamom facilitated by the Spices Board India, where its price is set through auction. The system of advance payment to the farmers would cause stress for farmers to sell their produce at a lower price. Price volatility remains the major concerns in the marketing and trading of large cardamom. Differential provisions in inter-country trade is restricting the market and trade of large cardamom produced in the region. Similarly, the adulteration of large cardamom with “false cardamom” remains the major threat to large cardamom production in the Eastern Himalayas. The product-specific data suggests more than 80 percent of large cardamom exported from India goes to Pakistan, suggesting Pakistan to be the biggest global market for the large cardamom produced in the Indian sub-continent. Production constraints—specifically, diseases; poor agronomic practice and inefficient curing in traditional way; marketing constraints through price supports and packaging with geographical indications; and trading constraints, such as custom and phytosanitary barriers in inter-country trading, improper identification of the international market, and adulteration issues need to be addressed urgently for the sustainability of large cardamom production in the Eastern Himalayas. This will be critical for improving the welfare of thousands of small households in the region.We would like to acknowledge JSPS Grantin-Aid for Scientific Research (15H05253) for the support provided in conducting research on regional agricultural trade in the Indian sub-continent, mainly Bhutan, India and Nepal. This paper is a part of the overall study of the regional agricultural trade

Protracted People's War in Nepal : An Analysis from the Perspective of Azar's Theory of Protracted Social Conflict <Research Notes>

Edward Azar's theory of Protracted Social Conflict (PSC), characteristic of wider work being done in conflict resolution in the 1970s and 1980s, offered a genuinely original interpretation of prevailing patterns of conflict that was clearly at odds with mainstream international approaches at the time. When the attention of almost all of the specialists in international relations and conflict studies was focused on inter-state wars, Azar was one of those few who were focusing on intra-state conflict having communal content. Azar's work was rarely appreciated by the contemporary literatures of his time. However, only a few years after his death in 1991, conflict studies were being focused on internal wars - for which he used the term PSC - the concept that Azar had been advocating since 1970s. Azar's model still retains its relevance today. He identified four clusters responsible for the initiation of PSC, viz, communal identity, needs deprivation, governance and state's role, and international linkages. This paper attempts to analyze the Protracted People's War (PPW) started by Nepal Communist Party - Maoist (hereafter only Maoists) in Nepal that lasted for a decade. Firstly, the failure of government to address the fundamental needs of the people and engaging themselves in power politics resulted into the frustration among the people especially the rural mass that were suffering from acute discrimination and poverty. Secondly, discrimination of the people in terms of caste, ethnicity, and religion and their under-representation in the administrative and political echelon and the national army further added to the dissatisfaction of the people. The Maoists effectively exploited the frustration of the masses with regards to these disparities. Nepal's porous border with India facilitated the movement of Maoists to organize their activities and trainings in the Indian land and co-ordination with similar groups in India. On the other hand, the provision of arms and ammunition to the ruling government by the international forces especially the US and India aggravated the conflicting situation. These factors explained by Azar's four clusters are significant to explain the violent conflict in Nepal. These factors are necessary but not sufficient to explain the uprising of Maoists and their strategy of the PPW. In addition to these factors explained by Azar's four clusters, exclusion of the Bhattarai-faction of United People's Front of Nepal from the general election in 1994 and political discrimination and suppression by the ruling political party (Nepali Congress) against the Maoists in 1995 also led to the violent conflict in Nepal

Migration and Remittance in Nepal : A Review of the Push-Pull Factors and Socioeconomic Issues

Migration has long been an important livelihood option for the Nepalese people. In 1815, migration was institutionalized through the recruitment of Gurkha soldiers into the (British) Indian Army. Prior to this, some of the defeated soldiers in the Anglo-Gorkha war sought employment in the army in Lahore. After the 2000s, there was a significant increase in the migration of youths mainly due to global economic liberalization and the unstable political situation in Nepal at the time. At present, remittance contributes to more than a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Although remittance was identified as an important reason for the recent decrease in poverty incidence, it was also blamed for increasing inequality. Taking all these factors into consideration, this study briefly assesses the history of migration in Nepal based on a review of the existing literature and views migration from the perspective of push and pull factors. The study analyzes the growing importance of remittance in the national economy as well as in the household economy and follows up with a discussion on the socioeconomic issues related to migration. The study concludes with a discussion on the prospective issues related to migration in Nepal

Opportunity Cost of REDD+ in Community Forests in the Mid-Hills of Nepal : A Case Study of Thangsa Deurali Community Forest, Dolakha

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) was reformulated to cover deforestation and forest degradation, which, until recently, were overlooked in climate change mitigation initiatives. However, whether REDD+ will benefit countries like Nepal, which has a relatively low deforestation rate, less forest cover, and a population predominantly comprising farmers who are heavily dependent on forests, is being debated. To address this issue, the opportunity cost (OC) of REDD+ need to be analyzed. This study analyzes the OC of REDD+ against high-value and mid-value crops in the Thangsa Deurali Community Forest (TDCF) of Dolakha district in the midhills of Nepal. This community forest has been participating in the REDD+ pilot program since 2009. In the study, household survey, focused group discussions, and key informant interviews were used to collect data on community forest management, including forest harvesting and agricultural practices. To estimate the OC, the 2011 guidelines from the World Bank were followed. Potato was taken as a high-value crop, whereas maize and millet were taken as mid-value crops, considering their importance in the study area. The members of TDCF harvest mainly timber, fuel wood, fodder, and leaf litter from the forest’s 217.1 hectares (ha). The OCs of REDD+ will be US$0.072 million/year and US$0.065 million/year for high- and mid-value crops, respectively. The carbon prices of US$198 and US$179 per ton will be optimal to cover the possible losses for not moving to high- and mid-value crops, respectively, in forestland that can be converted to agricultural land. Co-benefits such as enhancing biodiversity, water recharging, and increasing the role of the forest itself in the farming system could make REDD+ a good choice for managing forests with community participation. The monetary value of such co-benefits is crucial in easing out the optimal carbon price

Poverty and Food Insecurity in Nepal A Review

Nepal being the poorest country in the world, poverty remains one of the crucial development agenda in Nepal since it started its development effort in 1956. Therefore, this review paper analyzes the poverty and food insecurity in Nepal. Macro economic indicators of the country i.e., Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and inflation rate shows that the country is historically a low growth country with inflation rate always higher than the GDP growth rate. Therefore, macroeconomic indicators are not in favorable condition to tackle the overarching problem of poverty incidence in the country. Since 1976/77, poverty incidence is in increasing trend in Nepal. It was only in 2003/04, some progress in reducing poverty was reported, which was mainly due to the significantly higher inflow of remittance compared to earlier years, rapid urbanization, and an increase in non-farm incomes. This resulted not only in the decline in proportion of population suffering from poverty but also decline in the absolute number of population suffering from poverty. However, such decline in incidence of poverty was achieved at the cost of increased inequality.The gini coefficient increased from 0.24 in the year 1984/85 to 0.41 in 2003/04. Imbalanced growth in rural and urban areas could be the reason for increase in gini coefficient. Reduction of poverty in urban areas remains always high compared to that of rural areas. Therefore, poverty incidence remains always the highest in Mid-western and Farwestern rural hills. Also, poverty and food insecurity is the highest among female headed household, dalit and ethnic communities, small landholding households, households engaged in laboring and agriculture. This is mainly due to unequal distribution of resources such as land, social discrepancy, and lack of access to basic social and economic structures. Government has been giving the fi rst priority to the reduction of poverty since eighth five year plan (1992). But the government’s programs are failed to reach the target population. For instance government programs represent less than 10% of the national food deficit. Therefore, besides in-depth analysis of poverty at household level in order to understand location specifi c problem of poverty and food insecurity, expansion of government programs focusing on targeted population is very critical in dealing with the problems of poverty and food insecurity

Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-

Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical (1978-2008) climatic data and yield data for the food-crops. The yield growth rate of all the food-crops is positive. However, the growth rate for all crops, except potato and wheat, is below population growth rate during the period. Climate variables like temperature and precipitation are the important determinants of crop yields. Trend of precipitation is neither increasing nor decreasing significantly during this period. However, temperature is increasing by 0.7 0C during the period. Climate variables show some influences on the yield of these major food-crops in Nepal. Increase in summer rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to rice yield. Also, increase in summer rain and minimum temperature has positive impact on potato yield. However, increase in summer rain and maximum temperature adversely affected the yield of maize and millet. Increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current trend of winter rain and temperature. Consideration of spatial variation in similar type of study in Nepal that will be helpful in identifying the region more vulnerable to climate change in terms of crop yield is highly recommended