On-site early-warning system for bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

<p>In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.</p

Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru

Multi-hazard risk assessments for building portfolios exposed to earthquake shaking followed by a tsunami are usually based on empirical vulnerability models calibrated on post-event surveys of damaged buildings. The applicability of these models cannot easily be extrapolated to other regions of larger/smaller events. Moreover, the quantitative evaluation of the damages related to each of the hazard types (disaggregation) is impossible. To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, this study proposes an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are constantly being developed and calibrated by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. This method is based on the proposal of state-dependent fragility functions for the triggered hazard to account for the pre-existing damage and the harmonisation of building classes and damage states through their taxonomic characterisation, which is transversal to any hazard-dependent vulnerability. This modular assemblage also allows us to separate the economic losses expected for each scenario on building portfolios subjected to cascading hazards. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios. We show the importance of accounting for damage accumulation on extended building portfolios while observing a dependency between the earthquake magnitude and the direct economic losses derived for each hazard scenario. For the commonly exposed residential building stock of Lima exposed to both perils, we find that classical tsunami empirical fragility functions lead to underestimations of predicted losses for lower magnitudes (Mw) and large overestimations for larger Mw events in comparison to our state-dependent models and cumulative-damage method.</p

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in seismic risk assessments on the example of Cologne, Germany

Both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties associated with different sources and components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) are present at each step of seismic risk assessments. All individual sources of uncertainty contribute to the total uncertainty, which might be very high and, within the decision-making context, may therefore lead to either very conservative and expensive decisions or the perception of considerable risk. When anatomizing the structure of the total uncertainty, it is therefore important to propagate the different individual uncertainties through the computational chain and to quantify their contribution to the total value of risk. The present study analyses different uncertainties associated with the hazard, vulnerability and loss components by the use of logic trees. The emphasis is on the analysis of epistemic uncertainties, which represent the reducible part of the total uncertainty, including a sensitivity analysis of the resulting seismic risk assessments with regard to the different uncertainty sources. This investigation, being a part of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe), is carried out for the example of, and with reference to, the conditions of the city of Cologne, Germany, which is one of the MATRIX test cases. At the same time, this particular study does not aim to revise nor to refine the hazard and risk level for Cologne; it is rather to show how large are the existing uncertainties and how they can influence seismic risk estimates, especially in less well-studied areas, if hazard and risk models adapted from other regions are used

The Grizzly, March 25, 1988

Alcohol Abuse Abounds • Abortion Forum Caused Little Racket • Conwell is Here! • Selected Speakers: Berry and Connolly • Letters: Women More Than Miffed; Task Force Wants You; Applause to Participants; We Want Service, Too!; Track Awards Noted • Easter Reflections on Zacharias • Developing Student Life • Major Math • Jazz! • MAC Honors Outstanding Student-Athletes • Lady Bears Steel Show • Baseball Pitches Win • Bears Make Tracks • Lax is Ready! • Gym-Nastics • Ursinus Men Strut Their Stuff • Berry: Up Close and Personal • Organ Virtuoso to Perform • McCullough\u27s Safety Tips • Rally Round Nally • Now and Zen Up and Coming • The Zoo\u27s the News • Dying Boy, 6 Needs Helphttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1209/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, February 19, 1988

Presidents View Pledging • Rutgers Tragedy Twofold • Village Recognized • Patterns Campaign Nears Completion • Christians Observe Lenten Season • Letters: Alumna Voices Dismay with Greeks; Where Were the Concerned Faculty? • Hats Off to the Men • Kane Announces Regulations • Air Band Explodes! • Priceless Art Displayed • Coach Angelos: We are Hungry!! • Women Vie for MAC Berth • Wrestlers Seesaw in Matches • Track all Set for the MAC\u27s • Women Runners Get Psyched for the MAC Championships • Aquabears Discover Their Match in Last Week\u27s Meet • Myrin Works to Modernize • Ward to Perform • Theater Group Presents the Zanyhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1205/thumbnail.jp

Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe

Climate Risk Sourcebook

The Climate Risks Sourcebook provides an updated methodological approach on how to design and conduct climate risk assessments and provides the necessary and state-of-the-art knowledge incorporating findings of the sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. It is a user-friendly, step-by-step guide to operationalizing the theoretical concept of risk. The approach is location and context-specific and gives guidance on how climate risk assessments can inform and support evidence-based decision making. This includes impact chains as tailor-made conceptual models that illustrate key risks and their drivers for a specific context. The Climate Risk Sourcebook additionally offers expert material for further in-depth knowledge. Another novelty is its focus on communication, gender and vulnerable groups