On-site early-warning system for bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

<p>In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.</p

Exploring functional regression for dynamic modeling of shallow landslides in South Tyrol, Italy

Shallow landslides are ubiquitous hazards in mountainous regions worldwide that arise from an interplay of static predisposing factors and dynamic preparatory and triggering conditions. Modeling shallow landslides at regional scales has leveraged data-driven approaches to separately investigate purely spatial landslide susceptibility and temporally varying conditions. Yet, the joint assessment of shallow landslides in space and time using data-driven methods remains challenging. Furthermore, dynamic factors have been typically included in data-driven landslide models as scalar predictors by employing aggregated descriptors over time (e.g., mean, maximum, or total precipitation over a defined time window), where many choices are possible for the considered time scales and aggregation operators. Therefore, incorporating the time-varying behavior of dynamic factors remains difficult.This study addresses these challenges by exploring Functional Generalized Additive Models (FGAMs) to predict the occurrence of shallow landslides in space and time within the Italian province of South Tyrol (7,400 km²). In contrast to conventional techniques, we test the benefits of using functional predictors to describe dynamic factors (e.g., precipitation and temperature) leading to landslide events. In other words, we evaluate dynamic factors as collections of measurements over time (i.e., time series). To do so, our approach uses a binomial FGAM to analyze the statistical associations between the static factors (scalar predictors), the dynamic weather conditions prior to a potential landslide occurrence (functional predictors), and the occurrence of shallow landslides in space and time.Potential outcomes of this novel approach show an overview of the added value of using functional predictors for space and time shallow landslide modeling. These research findings are positioned within the context of the PROSLIDE project, which has received financial support from the Research Südtirol/Alto Adige 2019 research program of the Autonomous Province of Bozen/Bolzano – Südtirol/Alto Adige

Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions:A study focused on Burundi

The increased occurrence of multiple cascading and compounding hazards underlines the importance of integrated- and multi-hazard-based assessment approaches for the development of thorough strategies towards disaster resilience. To this purpose, a national-scale multi-hazard risk assessment was conducted between September 2020 and December 2021 for Burundi, focusing on the natural hazards flooding, torrential rains, landslides, earthquakes, and strong winds. This integrated multi-hazard assessment resulted in comparable nationwide provincial and commune-scale Annual Average Loss (AAL) values, further aggregated to provide a preliminary estimate of the resulting overall risk. Historical climatology (1990–2019) was computed, and a preliminary evaluation of the potential effects of climate change in the future period (2020–2049) was carried out. Data availability and reliability were challenging throughout the whole assessment and were tackled by integrating local authoritative sources with international and global resources. An up-to-date exposure model was implemented and complemented by an indicator-based socioeconomic vulnerability assessment. Furthermore, a data-driven statistical susceptibility model for shallow landslides has been derived at national scale. The consequent multi-hazard risk assessment provides an approximate picture of the expected nationwide risk distribution in economic terms. The results should support the identification of priority areas and actions for disaster risk management

Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru

Multi-hazard risk assessments for building portfolios exposed to earthquake shaking followed by a tsunami are usually based on empirical vulnerability models calibrated on post-event surveys of damaged buildings. The applicability of these models cannot easily be extrapolated to other regions of larger/smaller events. Moreover, the quantitative evaluation of the damages related to each of the hazard types (disaggregation) is impossible. To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, this study proposes an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are constantly being developed and calibrated by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. This method is based on the proposal of state-dependent fragility functions for the triggered hazard to account for the pre-existing damage and the harmonisation of building classes and damage states through their taxonomic characterisation, which is transversal to any hazard-dependent vulnerability. This modular assemblage also allows us to separate the economic losses expected for each scenario on building portfolios subjected to cascading hazards. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios. We show the importance of accounting for damage accumulation on extended building portfolios while observing a dependency between the earthquake magnitude and the direct economic losses derived for each hazard scenario. For the commonly exposed residential building stock of Lima exposed to both perils, we find that classical tsunami empirical fragility functions lead to underestimations of predicted losses for lower magnitudes (Mw) and large overestimations for larger Mw events in comparison to our state-dependent models and cumulative-damage method.</p

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in seismic risk assessments on the example of Cologne, Germany

Both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties associated with different sources and components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) are present at each step of seismic risk assessments. All individual sources of uncertainty contribute to the total uncertainty, which might be very high and, within the decision-making context, may therefore lead to either very conservative and expensive decisions or the perception of considerable risk. When anatomizing the structure of the total uncertainty, it is therefore important to propagate the different individual uncertainties through the computational chain and to quantify their contribution to the total value of risk. The present study analyses different uncertainties associated with the hazard, vulnerability and loss components by the use of logic trees. The emphasis is on the analysis of epistemic uncertainties, which represent the reducible part of the total uncertainty, including a sensitivity analysis of the resulting seismic risk assessments with regard to the different uncertainty sources. This investigation, being a part of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe), is carried out for the example of, and with reference to, the conditions of the city of Cologne, Germany, which is one of the MATRIX test cases. At the same time, this particular study does not aim to revise nor to refine the hazard and risk level for Cologne; it is rather to show how large are the existing uncertainties and how they can influence seismic risk estimates, especially in less well-studied areas, if hazard and risk models adapted from other regions are used

The Grizzly, March 25, 1988

Alcohol Abuse Abounds • Abortion Forum Caused Little Racket • Conwell is Here! • Selected Speakers: Berry and Connolly • Letters: Women More Than Miffed; Task Force Wants You; Applause to Participants; We Want Service, Too!; Track Awards Noted • Easter Reflections on Zacharias • Developing Student Life • Major Math • Jazz! • MAC Honors Outstanding Student-Athletes • Lady Bears Steel Show • Baseball Pitches Win • Bears Make Tracks • Lax is Ready! • Gym-Nastics • Ursinus Men Strut Their Stuff • Berry: Up Close and Personal • Organ Virtuoso to Perform • McCullough\u27s Safety Tips • Rally Round Nally • Now and Zen Up and Coming • The Zoo\u27s the News • Dying Boy, 6 Needs Helphttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1209/thumbnail.jp