On the variability of tidal fronts on a macrotidal continental shelf, Northern Patagonia, Argentina

Tidal fronts are associated with the transition between homogeneous and vertically stratified water and characterized by the simultaneous availability of light and nutrients that enhance the growth of marine productivity. We study the variability in the position of two tidal fronts located in Patagonia Argentina: the San Matías and Valdés fronts. The rate of tidal dissipation in these regions is among the highest of the world ocean. The study is based on the analysis of over 1200 satellite derived sea surface temperature images. The results indicate that the mean monthly position of both fronts is strongly linked to the characteristics of the bottom topography. In response to increasing surface heat flux the fronts displace toward shallower areas. Similarly, a slight displacement towards deeper waters is observed when the heat flux decreases. High frequency variability is revealed by the standard deviation around monthly averages. At the mouth of San Matías gulf, the front location variability in the spring-neap cycle is around 10 km, while east of Valdés Peninsula the fortnightly cycle is masked by high frequency fluctuations (~30 km) governed by meanders and meso-scale filaments. A simple conceptual model is proposed that suggests that the mean frontal position is determined by the bottom topography while its seasonal variability is driven by the surface heat flux, and the front intensity is modulated by the spring-neap transition.Fil: Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Rivas, Andres Lujan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia; ArgentinaFil: Piola, Alberto Ricardo. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

El Golfo San Jorge como área prioritaria de investigación, manejo y conservación en el marco de la Iniciativa Pampa Azul

El Golfo San Jorge (GSJ) fue incluido como una de las áreas geográficas prioritarias en el marco de la Iniciativa Pampa Azul por ser una de las regiones más productivas y con mayor diversidad del Mar Argentino. La región es clave en el ciclo de vida de los recursos pesqueros más importantes de Argentina y cuenta con áreas protegidas destinadas a la conservación de su biodiversidad y con un alto potencial para el desarrollo turístico. La jurisdicción del GSJ es compartida por las provincias de Chubut y Santa Cruz, mientras que las aguas adyacentes de plataforma están bajo jurisdicción nacional. Este carácter interjurisdiccional, sumado al gran número de instituciones involucradas en su estudio y gestión generan interesantes desafíos en materia de políticas de investigación y manejo. Este artículo pretende dar a conocer la importancia del GSJ, el conocimiento existente acerca del sistema, y la necesidad de construir, ejecutar y sostener un programa de investigación y monitoreo a largo plazo con un foco en los servicios que presta este ecosistema y los impactos de las actividades que allí se desarrollan. Los avances realizados en esa dirección son puestos en el contexto nacional y mundial, no solo por el conocimiento generado sino también por el logro de haber nucleado a varias instituciones del país dando inicio a un programa de investigación multidisciplinario con un enfoque ecosistémico, impulsado desde la iniciativa Pampa Azul.San Jorge Gulf (GSJ) was included among Areas of priority by the National Initiative Pampa Azul since it is one of the most productive and diverse regions of the Argentine Sea. It is a key region for the life cycle of several species including most important fishery resources, the definition of protected areas of biodiversity conservation interest, and for a potential tourism development. This region is under provincial (Chubut and Santa Cruz Provinces) but also national jurisdiction, and several institutions are engaged in research as well management, so the area represents a challenge for research and management policies. The goal of this article is to acknowledge the importance of GSJ, to present the main results of ongoing research, and highlight the need of building, carrying on and sustaining a research and monitoring program in the long term, focusing on ecosystem services and human impacts. Advances are contextualized in national and international frameworks, not only due to the importance of new scientific knowledgement achieved, but also for the response and collaboration of several institutions to the need of constructing a multidisciplinary program with an Ecosystem Approach, requested by Pampa Azul.Fil: Dans, Silvana Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco"; ArgentinaFil: Cefarelli, Adrián Oscar. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge; ArgentinaFil: Galvan, David Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Góngora, María Eva. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Trelew. Departamento de Biología. Laboratorio de Hidrobiología; ArgentinaFil: Martos, Patricia. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Marinas; ArgentinaFil: Varisco, Martin Alejandro. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge; ArgentinaFil: Alvarez Colombo, Gustavo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: Blanc, Silvia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Direccion Gral. de Investigacion y Desarrollo de la Ara. Direccion de Investigacion de la Armada. Departamento de Propagacion Acustica.; ArgentinaFil: Bos, Patricio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Direccion Gral. de Investigacion y Desarrollo de la Ara. Direccion de Investigacion de la Armada. Departamento de Propagacion Acustica.; ArgentinaFil: Bovcon, Nelson Darío. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Trelew. Departamento de Biología. Laboratorio de Hidrobiología; Argentina. Provincia del Chubut. Secretaría de Pesca; ArgentinaFil: Charo, Marcela. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval. Departamento Oceanografía; ArgentinaFil: Cinquini, Mariano Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; ArgentinaFil: Derisio, Carla María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Subsede Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: Dogliotti, Ana Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Ferreyra, Gustavo Adolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; ArgentinaFil: Funes, Manuela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; ArgentinaFil: Giberto, Diego Agustin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; ArgentinaFil: Halm, Cristian. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: Hozbor, Constanza. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: Irigoyen, Alejo Joaquin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Lewis, Mirtha Noemi. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Macchi, Gustavo Javier. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; ArgentinaFil: Maenza, Reinaldo Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo Pesquero. Direccion de Pesqueria de Invertebrados, Peces Pelagicos y Ambiente Marino. Gabinete de Oceanografia Fisica.; ArgentinaFil: Nocera, Ariadna Celina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Paparazzo, Flavio Emiliano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Parma, Ana María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Prario, Igor Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; ArgentinaFil: Sánchez, Noela Belén. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Sastre, Viviana. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Trelew. Departamento de Biología. Laboratorio de Hidrobiología; ArgentinaFil: Segura, Valeria Romina. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: Silva, Ricardo. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; ArgentinaFil: Schiariti, Agustin. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; ArgentinaFil: Temperoni, Brenda. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones y Desarrollo Pesquero; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; ArgentinaFil: Tonini, Mariano Hernan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto Andino Patagónico de Tecnologías Biológicas y Geoambientales. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Instituto Andino Patagónico de Tecnologías Biológicas y Geoambientales; ArgentinaFil: Tolivia, Analía Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; ArgentinaFil: Trobbiani, Gastón Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Venerus, Leonardo Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Vernet, María. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge; ArgentinaFil: Vinuesa, Julio Hector. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia Golfo San Jorge; ArgentinaFil: Villanueva Gomila, Gabriela Lujan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Williams, Gabriela Noemí. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Yorio, Pablo Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Zárate, Marcos Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentin

Lupus en Argentina. Pacientes no respondedores al tratamiento estándar y belimumab como posible opción. Datos del registro RELESSAR

Introducción: el lupus es una enfermedad compleja y varias veces de difícil abordaje. Alcanzar la remisión es uno de los objetivos, incorporando opciones terapéuticas. Objetivos: describir las características generales de los pacientes según el estado de la enfermedad y el uso de belimumab. Materiales y métodos: estudio de corte transversal, registro RELESSAR. Se definió el estado de la enfermedad como: remisión: SLEDAI=0 y sin corticoides; baja actividad de la enfermedad: SLEDAI >0 y ≤4 y sin corticoides; control no óptimo: SLEDAI >4 y cualquier dosis de corticoides. Resultados: se incluyeron 1.277 pacientes, 23,4% en remisión, 12,6% en baja actividad y 63,8% con control no óptimo. En este último grupo eran más jóvenes y con menor duración de la enfermedad; presentaban mayores índices de actividad y cronicidad, y mayor empleo de inmunosupresores. Solo el 22,3% de los pacientes con criterio potencial de uso de belimumab (lupus eritematoso sistémico activo a pesar del tratamiento estándar) lo recibía en ese momento. Las variables asociadas a hospitalizaciones fueron: terapia con corticoides, ciclofosfamida y mayor SLICC. Conclusiones: se refleja la complejidad del manejo de estos pacientes y se visualizan aspectos estructurales como la desigualdad. El uso del belimumab resultaría beneficioso en los pacientes seleccionados

Design and baseline characteristics of the finerenone in reducing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in diabetic kidney disease trial

Background: Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. Patients and Methods: The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate >= 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio >= 30 to <= 5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level alpha = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. Conclusions: FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Frontal systems and circulation in the vicinity of the Norpatagonian Gulfs

En la presente tesis se estudian los sistemas frontales y la circulación en la región de los denominados golfos norpatagónicos y la plataforma adyacente empleando imágenes satelitales de temperatura de alta resolución y datos oceanográficos in-situ. Las imágenes satelitales revelan claramente los frentes térmicos formados en la boca del golfo San Matías (Frente Meridional GSM), dentro del GSM (Frente Zonal GSM), dentro del golfo San José (FGSJ), al este de la península Valdés (FV) y dentro del golfo Nuevo (FGN). En los meses de máximo porcentaje de ocurrencia los frentes no presentan variaciones significativas en su posición media mensual. Sin embargo, en el FMGSM y en el FV se observan desplazamientos de frecuencia quincenal, no siendo el caso del FZGSM, del FGSJ y del FGN los cuales son debidos a procesos advectivos. Perfiles verticales de densidad y de porcentaje de saturación de oxígeno disuelto sugieren que la ventilación dentro del GSM se produce localmente mediante convección en invierno, sin evidencia de derrame de aguas densas, pero sugiriéndose ingreso de agua sub-superficial desde la plataforma continental adyacente. En contraste, las aguas profundas del GN son ventiladas por el derrame de aguas densas sobre el fondo desde la plataforma continental y además por convección local en invierno. Las dimensiones y orientación del margen occidental del GSM favorecen la ocurrencia de surgencia costera. El análisis combinado de imágenes satelitales de temperatura superficial y viento junto con la temperatura in-situ sugiere la formación de un frente de upwelling sobre la costa occidental del GSM, generado por eventos de viento norte con al menos uno o dos días de persistencia.In this thesis I study the frontal systems and circulation in the northern patagonian gulfs and their adjacent continental shelf using high resolution satellite images of temperature and insitu oceanographic data. Satellite images clearly show thermal fronts in the San Matías gulf (Meridional Front of SMG and Zonal Front of SMG), in the San José gulf (SJGF), east of the Valdés Peninsula (VF) and in Nuevo gulf (NGF). During the months of maximum percentage of occurrence, fronts do not show significant variation in their monthly mean position. However, the Meridional Front of SMG and the Valdés Front show displacements with a fortnightly frequency. These displacements are not observed in the Zonal Front of SMG neither on the SJGF nor on the NGF which are due to advective processes. Vertical profiles of density and dissolved oxygen saturation suggest that ventilation in the SMG is locally generated through winter convection. There is no evidence of spreading of deep waters from the continental shelf. However, a sub-surface water flows from the adjacent continental shelf into the northern SMG gyre. In contrast, the deep waters of Nuevo Gulf are renewed through spreading of shelf bottom water and local winter convection. The dimension and orientation of the west margin of the SMG, favor the occurrence of upwelling in response to northerly winds. The combined analysis of surface temperature and satellite derived wind data, and in-situ temperature suggests the formation of an upwelling front along the west coast of SMG, generated by wind events persisting more than one or two days.Fil:Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina

Identification, characteristics and seasonal evolution of surface thermal fronts in the Argentinean Continental Shelf

The location and seasonal variability of surface thermal fronts along the Argentinean Continental Shelf (38-55°S) were studied using 18 years (1985-2002) of sea surface temperature (SST) satellite data. Monthly SST gradients were calculated and a threshold was used to identify frontal pixels. Frontal areas were classified into 4 zones according to their seasonal evolution and the main forcings leading to the front's formation were identified for each group. The shelf break front was easily detected due to the large number of frontal pixels in the region and its high mean gradient values. This front showed a marked annual cycle and relatively constant position associated to the bottom slope; it tended to be located where the core of the Malvinas current is closest to the shelf. Tidal fronts also showed a strong annual cycle, being detected in three well-defined regions during spring and summer. Along the coasts of Tierra del Fuego and Santa Cruz, the combination of strong tidal mixing and low-salinity coastal plumes led to semi-annual seasonal cycles of frontal intensity and persistence that showed a relative maximum in winter. A similar behavior (semi-annual) was found at the coast off the Buenos Aires Province. There, the coastal dilution and the bathymetric gradient generated near-coastal fronts that changed direction seasonally. In the northern mid-shelf, a front linked to the intrusion of warm waters formed in the San Matías Gulf was identified during the winter.Fil: Rivas, Andres Lujan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentin

Three-dimensional temperature fields of the North Patagonian Sea recorded by Magellanic penguins as biological sampling platforms

Temperature is a primary determinant of biogeographic patterns and ecosystem processes. Standard techniques to study the ocean temperature in situ are, however, particularly limited by their time and spatial coverage, problems which might be partially mitigated by using marine top predators as biological platforms for oceanographic sampling. We used small archival tags deployed on 33 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus), and obtained 21,070 geo-localized profiles of water temperature, during late spring of 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2013; in a region of the North Patagonian Sea with limited oceanographic records in situ. We compared our in situ data of sea surface temperature (SST) with those available from satellite remote sensing; to describe the three-dimensional temperature fields around the area of influence of two important tidal frontal systems; and to study the inter-annual variation in the three-dimensional temperature fields. There was a strong positive relationship between satellite- and animal-derived SST data although there was an overestimation by remote-sensing by a maximum difference of +2 °C. Little inter-annual variability in the 3-dimensional temperature fields was found, with the exception of 2012 (and to a lesser extent in 2013) where the SST was significantly higher. In 2013, we found weak stratification in a region which was unexpected. In addition, during the same year, a warm small-scale vortex is indicated by the animal-derived temperature data. This allowed us to describe and better understand the dynamics of the water masses, which, so far, have been mainly studied by remote sensors and numerical models. Our results highlight again the potential of using marine top predators as biological platforms to collect oceanographic data, which will enhance and accelerate studies on the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. In a changing world, threatened by climate change, it is urgent to fill information gaps on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system allowing to link the hydrothermal process to the at-sea distribution of top predators.Fil: Sala, Juan Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto de Biología de Organismos Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Quintana, Flavio Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto de Biología de Organismos Marinos; Argentin

Detection and characterization of submesoscale eddies from optical images: a case study in the Argentine continental shelf

Eddies are structures of recognized physical and biogeochemical relevance. Because of their small space and time scales, submesoscale eddy detection is a challenge, and detection methods for these structures are scarce. In this study, we detect submesoscale eddies (SME) by means of a method implemented on satellite chlorophyll-a (CSAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) data from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. The performance of this method is shown through the characterization of the shape and size of the detected eddies. The trajectory and characteristics of one particular eddy could be observed for 6 days over the Argentine continental shelf. The eddy reached the highest CSAT concentration (1.52 mg m−3, decreasing to less than 0.8 mg m−3 in about 3.5 km), and the lowest SST on the same day it developed its largest size. All SME detected within the study period are in agreement with cyclonic eddies and have a radius smaller than the baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation. This paper presents a workflow for the automated recognition of SME that could be applied to other regions with similar characteristics, or different ones with previous changes in the parameters.Fil: Becker, Fernando. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Romero, Silvia Inés. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Universidad de la Defensa Nacional. Facultad de la Armada.; ArgentinaFil: Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Puerto Madryn. Instituto Patagónico del Mar; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentin

Coastal upwelling in the San Jorge Gulf (Southwestern Atlantic) from remote sensing, modelling and hydrographic data

Coastal upwelling is a known mechanism that generates favorable conditions for marine life. In this paper, we evaluate the conditions for the development of coastal upwelling in the San Jorge Gulf, on the west coast of the South Atlantic Ocean. The wind-based upwelling indices were calculated for 4 years (2003–2006) in three coastal regions of the gulf with different orientations. Monthly images of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and wind and numerical simulations were used to analyze upwelling conditions. In addition, results of daily images, numerical simulations with daily forcings and CTD sections in the southwestern region of the gulf during the spring of 2016 and 2017 were described. The upwelling indices clearly highlight the differences between the three regions, linked to the basin geometry. Using an average of daily indices in the southwestern part of the gulf, thirteen upwelling events were detected during the warm season (November to March, 2003–2006). Numerical simulations suggest that the drop in surface temperature generated by an upwelling event in the SW region remains cold for more than a week. The wind pattern and CTD profiles during spring 2016 suggested favorable conditions for coastal upwelling compared to the profiles performed in 2017, in which wind do not appear to be upwelling-favorable.Fil: Pisoni, Juan Pablo. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Rivas, Andres Lujan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Tonini, Mariano Hernan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto Andino Patagónico de Tecnologías Biológicas y Geoambientales. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Instituto Andino Patagónico de Tecnologías Biológicas y Geoambientales; Argentin