122 research outputs found

    The noisy Hegselmann-Krause model for opinion dynamics

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    In the model for continuous opinion dynamics introduced by Hegselmann and Krause, each individual moves to the average opinion of all individuals within an area of confidence. In this work we study the effects of noise in this system. With certain probability, individuals are given the opportunity to change spontaneously their opinion to another one selected randomly inside the opinion space with different rules. If the random jump does not occur, individuals interact through the Hegselmann-Krause's rule. We analyze two cases, one where individuals can carry out opinion random jumps inside the whole opinion space, and other where they are allowed to perform jumps just inside a small interval centered around the current opinion. We found that these opinion random jumps change the model behavior inducing interesting phenomena. Using pattern formation techniques, we obtain approximate analytical results for critical conditions of opinion cluster formation. Finally, we compare the results of this work with the noisy version of the Deffuant et al. model for continuous-opinion dynamics

    Mass media and repulsive interactions in continuous-opinion dynamics

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    This letter focus on the effect of repulsive interactions on the adoption of an external message in an opinion model. With a simple change in the rules, we modify the Deffuant \emph{et al.} model to incorporate the presence of repulsive interactions. We will show that information receptiveness is optimal for an intermediate fraction of repulsive links. Using the master equation as well as Monte Carlo simulations of the message-free model, we identify the point where the system becomes optimally permeable to external influence with an order-disorder transition

    Impacts to Traffic Safety and Mobility of Changes in Speed Limits for Indiana Freeways

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    Predicting the Impact of Changing Speed Limits on Traffic Safety and Mobility on Indiana Freeways

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    After repeal of the National Maximum Speed Limit Law, states were allowed to set individual speed limits on their interstate roads. Several states opted for a uniform speed limit while others implemented differential speed limits. The current speed limit on Indiana rural freeways limits speed of passenger cars to 70 mph and restricts to 65 mph speed of vehicles with a gross weight of 26,000 pounds or more. Indiana’s speed limit on urban freeways is mostly 55 mph, but varies from 50 mph on certain downtown sections to 65 mph on some suburban sections. Previous studies comparing uniform and differential speed limit settings as to safety and mobility produced inconclusive or conflicting results. This study evaluates the safety and mobility effects of alternative speed limit scenarios on Indiana interstate freeways. Differences in travel time, vehicle operation, and traffic safety were used to compare the speed-limit scenarios. The effect of speed limit was evaluated in hourly periods. The traffic conditions in these periods were classified as uncongested, intermediate, and congested and the speed limit effects were analyzed in relation to these conditions. Rural and urban freeways were analyzed separately and distinct speed models were developed for cars and trucks. Safety was estimated by probability of crash and the conditional probability of crash injury severity. Speed limit was found to affect mobility and safety mostly in non-congested traffic conditions, while no significant effects were found in congested conditions. A limited effect was detected in intermediate traffic conditions on rural freeways. Results indicate that replacing the differential 70/65 mph speed limit on Indiana rural roads with the uniform speed limit of 70 mph may be beneficial for both safety and mobility. Increasing speed limits on urban interstates is confirmed to be beneficial for mobility but detrimental to safety

    Using Emerging and Extraordinary Data Sources to Improve Traffic Safety

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    The current safety management program in Indiana uses a method based on aggregate crash data for conditions averaged over several-year periods with consideration of only major roadway features. This approach does not analyze the risk of crashes potentially affected by time-dependent conditions such as traffic control, operations, weather and their interaction with road geometry. With the rapid development of data collection techniques, time-dependent data have emerged, some of which have become available for safety management. This project investigated the feasibility of using emerging and existing data sources to supplement the current safety management practices in Indiana and performed a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of the new data sources and their relevance to traffic safety analysis. In two case studies, time-dependent data were acquired and integrated to estimate their effects on the hourly probability of crash and its severity on two selected types of roads: (1) rural freeways and (2) signalized intersections. The results indicate a considerable connection between hourly traffic volume, average speeds, and weather conditions on the hourly probability of crash and its severity. Although some roadway geometric features were found to affect safety, the lack of turning volume data at intersections led to some counterintuitive results. Improvements have been identified to be implemented in the next phase of the project to eliminate these undesirable results

    Statistical Analysis of Safety Improvements and Integration into Project Design Process

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    RoadHAT is a tool developed by the Center for Road Safety and implemented for the INDOT safety management practice to help identify both safety needs and relevant road improvements. This study has modified the tool to facilitate a quick and convenient comparison of various design alternatives in the preliminary design stage for scoping small and medium safety-improvement projects. The modified RoadHAT 4D incorporates a statistical estimation of the Crash Reduction Factors based on a before-and-after analysis of multiple treated and control sites with EB correction for the regression-to-mean effect. The new version also includes the updated Safety Performance Functions, revised average costs of crashes, and the comprehensive table of Crash Modification Factors—all updated to reflect current Indiana conditions. The documentation includes updated Guidelines for Roadway Safety Improvements. The improved tool will be implemented at a sequence of workshops for the final end users and preceded with a beta-testing phase involving a small group of INDOT engineers

    Percepción de las actividades de gamificación en el aprendizaje colaborativo para alumnos de Ingeniería Civil de una universidad pública. Lima.2019

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    La presente investigación tiene de propósito determinar la correlación causal de la percepción de las actividades de gamificación en sus tres dimensiones: dinámicas, mecánicas, componentes, con la variable aprendizaje colaborativo. En primer lugar, se cita los estudios realizados por investigadores para establecerlos de referencia en los antecedentes, además se realiza una revisión teórica de las temáticas para el marco teórico para ambas variables estudiadas. Se abordó una metodología de investigación teniendo de muestra 112 estudiantes de primer ciclo de la facultad de Ingeniería Civil de la Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal, se aplicó la prueba de confiabilidad de alfa de cronbach llegándose a comprobar que el instrumento es válido y confiable, así también para el diseño de la investigación realizado ha sido de tipo no experimental: corte transversal y correlacional, el instrumento que se utilizó el cuestionario y el software para el procesamiento de datos IBM SPSS (Statistical Packageforthe Social Sciences) Versión 25. En los resultados se estableció una prueba no paramétrica, la metodología estadística aplicada a sido descriptiva expresada en las tablas y figuras para determinar las frecuencias relativas y el cruce de las variables, además se calculó la regresión logística multinomial por tener la variable independiente cualitativa con varias categorías. Por lo que se pudo llegar a la conclusión que la variable dependiente influye significativamente en la variable independiente, adicionalmente se comprueba que las dimensiones de la variable percepción de las actividades de gamificación con el cruce con la variable aprendizaje colaborativo presentan la misma relación descrita. Finalmente, se brinda las recomendaciones para mejorar la investigación el entorno educativo de la clase a través de los elementos de los juegos y crear los espacios de socialización para desarrollar el trabajo colaborativo promoviendo las buenas practicas e implementando estas metodologías innovadoras

    Diseño Estructural de viviendas Sismo Resistente en la ribera del río Rímac y en las laderas del cerro en El Agustino, Lima 2017

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    La presente investigación tiene como finalidad diseñar viviendas seguras en zonas vulnerables del Distrito de El Agustino. Según el enfoque la investigación es de tipo cuantitativo, descriptivo, la población en estudio son las viviendas del Asentamiento Humano Ovalo Vicentelo bajo y Asentamiento Humano 7 de Octubre; asimismo está investigación está dividido en 5 etapas. En la primera etapa se presenta la información del estudio de geotecnia que realizó la empresa “GEOCONSULT S.A CONSULTORES GENERALES Y WRC INGEO S.A.C (ensayo de análisis granulométrico por tamizado y ensayo de resistencia de corte directo) se clasificaran los suelos según SUCS (Sistema Unificado de Clasificación de los suelos) y la capacidad admisible del terreno en ambas zonas de estudio. La segunda etapa consistió en la elaboración de los planos arquitectónicos, se dio inicio con la configuración estructural para definir la ubicación de los elementos estructurales, se procedió hacer el predimensionamiento y metrado de cargas correspondientes. En la tercera etapa se realizó la modelación con el software Etabs una modelación tanto por cargas estáticas y el análisis sísmico dinámico por el método espectral obteniendo los parámetros de control de acuerdo a la E.030 del Diseño Sismo resistente. Para posteriormente trazar la envolvente de las combinaciones de carga; y diseñar los elementos estructurales; cabe resaltar para el diseño de los muros portantes se analizara para un sismo moderado según lo estipulado en la E.070 de albañilería. En la cuarta etapa se compara los resultados con los antecedentes presentado en la investigación. En la última parte se llega a las conclusiones según los objetivos planteados, y se da las recomendaciones tanto para la construcción de viviendas en ambas zonas de estudio y futuras investigaciones en estas 2 zonas vulnerables

    Trade-off and adaptive cost in a multiple-resistant strain of the invasive potato tuber moth Tecia solanivora

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    EntomologiaResistance to pesticides is an evolutionary process that entails, in most cases, substantial consequences to the biology of the resistant populations. In this study we focus on the life history traits of the potato tuber moth Tecia solanivora, an invasive and voracious pest for which resistance to pyrethroid insecticides was recently reported. Marginally resistant and multiple‐resistant populations were selected from eight sampled localities in Colombia; the use of a fully susceptible population was not possible since none was recognized in the laboratory or field. The multiple‐resistant Siachoque population exhibited a 42‐fold resistance to the carbamate insecticide carbofuran, and low levels of resistance to chlorpyrifos, a trend observed in six of the eight tested populations. This population also exhibits 24‐fold resistance to permethrin. The marginally resistant population of Gualmatán showed 4‐fold resistance to chlorpyrifos. The multiple-resistant population exhibited a 3.8-day shorter developmental time than the susceptible population, but with higher larval mortality. The peak of egg-laying was delayed in the resistant population in 9 days and the population growth rate was lower than that of the susceptible population.We hypothesize that the short developmental time of the multiple-resistant population may be an adaptation to minimize exposure to insecticides, which are applied to the soil. This adaptation is likely to require the surviving adults to compensate for the smaller nutrient amounts accumulated by the larvae in investing part of its adult life in securing the necessary resources for late-life egg production
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