A desk review of the ecology of heather beetle

The heather beetle Lochmaea suturalis is a naturally occurring species in the heather dominated landscapes of the United Kingdom. When the heather beetle population density increases dramatically it can cause significant damage to heather plants. It has been suggested that burning heather outside the permitted heather-burning season will promote the regeneration of heather following heather beetle damage. There is also some discussion as to whether burning outside the permitted season might also help control heather beetle. For these reasons Natural England regularly receives applications for licences to burn outside the permitted season. However, burning at this time of year may have effects on a wide range of biodiversity. Therefore, Natural England commissioned this report, and (NEER009 - Desk review of burning and other management options for the control for heather beetle) to ensure the best available evidence is being used. This report is based on an extensive literature review to determine the current state of knowledge of the ecology of the heather beetle. Some of the older references, which appear to form the basis for much current thinking on the subject, are now out of print and were not accessible for this review. A flurry of work was published in the 1980s and early 1990s, but much of this was either: • based at the same experimental plots; • involved relatively low levels of replication; or • did not report heather beetle damage as a central focus of the work. More recently, there have been some PhDs quantifying the ecology of heather beetles in more detail, but these have rarely been published in the peer-reviewed literature. Therefore, current thinking may be influenced by out-of-date information and experimental work that does not truly back up the conclusions of authors. This makes it difficult both to confidently discern patterns over time in frequency and severity of attacks (such as might be caused by climate change or changing nutrient deposition loads) and to be certain which factors control population levels in most year’s at most heather-dominated sites. Much more, and higher quality, monitoring and experimental work needs to be carried out to be able to predict the likely population dynamics of this species under different scenarios. The potential for parasites and parasitoids to control population numbers is particularly worthwhile. More detailed spatial analyses based on citizen science records, combined with carefully designed laboratory studies, might also be used to more clearly elucidate the relationship between beetle numbers and climatic conditions, enabling prediction of the relative likelihood of outbreaks occurring in the future

Desk review of burning and other management options for the control for heather beetle (NEER009)

The heather beetle Lochmaea suturalis is a naturally occurring species in the heather dominated landscapes of the United Kingdom. When the heather beetle population density increases dramatically it can cause significant damage to heather plants. It has been suggested that burning heather outside the permitted heather-burning season will promote the regeneration of heather following heather beetle damage. There is also some discussion as to whether burning outside the permitted season might also help control heather beetle. For these reasons Natural England regularly receives applications for licences to burn outside the permitted season. However, burning at this time of year may have effects on a wide range of biodiversity. Therefore, Natural England commissioned this report, and (NEER008 - A desk review of the ecology of heather beetle) to ensure the best available evidence is being used. An extensive literature review was carried out to determine the effectiveness of burning and other management options in managing heather-dominated systems for the heather beetle Lochmaea suturalis. In general, the quantity of relevant studies was low, and the quality of most was also poor, with very low levels of replication and/or a lack of controls or comparators being very common. There are three potential ways that management could be used. The first way is to reduce the likelihood of outbreaks. There is currently no evidence that burning is useful for this, due to a lack of relevant studies. Other management options that could be considered to achieve this are biological control and drainage of wetter areas, as well as general moorland management such as mowing, rotovating and sod cutting. The second way that burning could be used is by burning infested areas to reduce the numbers of heather beetles present. There has been some discussion as to whether it would be necessary to do this outside the current burning season, but there is currently no reliable evidence available to show whether this is effective, nor a cost-benefit analysis to take account of the additional risks of burning during the summer months. This is again due to a total lack of relevant studies. Other management options at this stage are to use insecticides on the affected areas, but there are also risks associated with this and again there is a lack of evidence as to how effective it would be. The potential for biocontrol at this stage has also not yet been explored. The third way is in encouraging regeneration of damaged areas. The available evidence for this is generally poor quality, and there is some suggestion that management techniques other than burning might be more effective at encouraging regrowth. In addition, some sites have been observed to regenerate naturally, in the absence of management, so there is a question as to whether management is necessary. Some trials are currently under way in Scotland and the Peak District with the aim of determining which management techniques are best for restoring damaged heather, but again the level of replication and lack of control areas appears to be a problem. The following are recommended in order to be better able to advise managers in the future: • Management actions should be carefully monitored so as to establish the effects of decisions (including whether to burn out of season or not). This monitoring should use properly designed experiments with adequate levels of replication and control plots. The effectiveness of management in controlling heather beetles and the effects on biodiversity as a whole and on ecosystem functioning should all be recorded. • Further research should be undertaken into the relationship between the heather beetle and its natural enemies. • Further research should be undertaken into the other factors that might affect the likelihood of outbreaks occurring

An observational study to examine how Cumulative Impact Zones influence alcohol availability from different types of licensed outlets in an inner London Borough

OBJECTIVES: Cumulative Impact Zones (CIZs) are a widely implemented local policy intended to restrict alcohol availability in areas proliferated with licensed outlets. Limited previous research has questioned their effectiveness and suggested they may play a more nuanced role in shaping local alcohol environments. This study evaluates the association between CIZ implementation and the number of licence applications made and the number issued, relative to a control region. DESIGN: A quantitative observational study. SETTING: The inner London Borough of Southwark, which currently enforces three CIZs. POPULATION: Licence applications received by Southwark Council’s Licensing Authority between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2017 (N = 1254). INTERVENTIONS: CIZ implementation. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Five outlet types were categorised and evaluated: Drinking Establishments, Eateries, Takeaways, Off Sales, and Other Outlets. Primary outcome measures were the number of applications received and the number of licences issued. These were analysed using Poisson regression of counts over time. RESULTS: Across all CIZs, implementation was associated with greater increases in the number of eateries in CIZ regions (IRR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.02 – 2.52, P = 0.04) and number of takeaway venues (IRR = 3.89, 95% CI: 1.32 – 11.49, P = 0.01), relative to the control area. No discernible association was found for the remaining outlet types. Disaggregating by area indicated a 10-fold relative increase in the number of new eateries in Peckham CIZ (IRR = 10.38, 95% CI: 1.39 – 77.66, P = 0.02) and a four-fold relative increase in the number of newly licensed takeaways in Bankside CIZ (IRR = 4.38, 95% CI: 1.20 – 15.91, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative Impact Zones may be useful as policy levers to shape local alcohol environments to support the licensing goals of specific geographical areas and diversify the night-time economy

Time dependent neutrino billiards

Quantum dynamica of a massless Dirac particle in time-dependent 1D box and circular billiard with time-dependent radius is studied. An exact analytical wave functions and eigenvalues are obtained for the case of linear time-dependence of the boundary position

Mapping the EQ-5D index from the cystic fibrosis questionnaire-revised using multiple modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to develop a mapping algorithm to estimate EQ-5D utility values from Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R) data. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of adults with cystic fibrosis (CF) was conducted in the UK. The survey consisted of the CFQ-R, the EQ-5D and a background questionnaire. Eight regression models, exploring item and domain level predictors, were evaluated using three different modelling approaches: ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, and a two-part model (TPM). Predictive performance in each model was assessed by intraclass correlations, information criteria (Bayesian information criteria and Alkaike information criteria), and root mean square error (RMSE). RESULTS: The survey was completed by 401 participants. For all modelling approaches the best performing item level model included all items, and the best performing domain level model included the CFQ-R Physical-, Role- and Emotional-functioning, Vitality, Eating Disturbances, Weight, and Digestive Symptoms domains and a selection of squared terms. Overall, the item level TPM, including age and gender covariates performed best within sample validation, but OLS and TPM domain models with squared terms performed best out-of-sample and are recommended for mapping purposes. CONCLUSIONS: Domain and item level models using all three modelling approaches reached an acceptable degree of predictive performance with domain models performing well in out-of-sample validation. These mapping functions can be applied to CFQ-R datasets to estimate EQ-5D utility values for economic evaluations of interventions for patients with cystic fibrosis. Further research evaluating model performance in an independent sample is encouraged