The microeconomics of bullionism : arbitrage, smuggling and silver outflows in Spain in the early 18th century

In the Early Modern period, there was a systematic flow of precious metals from the American colonies to Spain and Portugal and, from there, throughout the world. In this paper, I use newly discovered data on the black market for silver in Cadiz to reconstruct a picture of Castilian smuggling and international silver flows in the Age of Bullionism (1729-1741). The arbitrage equation shows persistent violations of the silver-point that made arbitrage systematically profitable until devaluation pegged the exchange rate to the arbitrated parity. Market structure explains the persistent violations. The Cadiz shadow price was lower than the international market price because bullionist regulations configured an oligopsonistic structure. The price gap was the reason for the Castilian silver outflows to EuropeBullionism, Capital controls, Silver outflows, Silver-point mechanism, Smuggling, Oligopsony, Arbitrage

Competing bimetallic ratios: Amsterdam, London and bullion arbitrage in the 18th century

This article analyses the stability of bimetallism in the mid-18th century for the case of two large centres that had different legal ratios and only one international market ratio. A new theoretical framework is articulated for the situation of international independence to set legal bimetallic ratios by monetary authorities in different countries. Then, using new data handcollected from archival sources and relevant to the two main bullion markets in the 18th century, Amsterdam and London, this theoretical framework is utilised to identify the regimes that actually prevailed during that period, in which Amsterdam was effectively on the bimetallic standard while London was on the gold standard de facto.Bimetallism, Bimetallic stability, Bullion markets, Arbitrage, Specie-point mechanism, Melting-minting points

Análisis de la deflación española de la primera mitad del siglo XIX: Una comparación internacional

La deflación española de la primera mitad del siglo XIX es una característica destacada en la mayoría de los análisis historiográficos del periodo. Sin embargo, carecemos de estudios que cuantifiquen la intensidad de dicha deflación en relación con la experiencia registrada en otros países. Por ello, el objetivo de este trabajo es la elaboración e interpretación de un índice Laspeyres de precios al consumo en Barcelona para el periodo 1775-1844. El ejercicio se divide en dos partes. La primera parte explica el método de elaboración del índice. La segunda parte analiza la evolución del nivel de precios españoles en relación con el caso internacional.According to historiography, deflation was one of the main features of early 19th century Spanish economy. However, studies that quantify the intensity of this deflation in relation to the experiences in other countries are lacking. For this reason, the purpose of the paper is the construction and the interpretation of a Laspeyres index of consumer prices in Barcelona for the years 1775-1844. The paper is divided into two sections. The first part describes the method used to construct the index. The second section compares the evolution of Spanish prices with other international cases.Publicad

The microeconomics of bullionism : arbitrage, smuggling and silver outflows in Spain in the early 18th century

In the Early Modern period, there was a systematic flow of precious metals from the American colonies to Spain and Portugal and, from there, throughout the world. In this paper, I use newly discovered data on the black market for silver in Cadiz to reconstruct a picture of Castilian smuggling and international silver flows in the Age of Bullionism (1729-1741). The arbitrage equation shows persistent violations of the silver-point that made arbitrage systematically profitable until devaluation pegged the exchange rate to the arbitrated parity. Market structure explains the persistent violations. The Cadiz shadow price was lower than the international market price because bullionist regulations configured an oligopsonistic structure. The price gap was the reason for the Castilian silver outflows to Europ

Floating against the tide : Spanish monetary policy, 1870-1931

The gold standard began to emerge as a universal monetary system in the late 1870s, and it had spread throughout the world economy by 1900. It was unusual for nations to be off the gold standard, and it meant that they were detached from the international financial community. Spain never joined the gold standard club in any of its varieties, either before or after 1914. Unlike the vast majority of the European currencies, the peseta’s exchange rate fluctuated, sometimes widely, against gold and gold currencies. Gold convertibility was suspended in 1883 and never resumed. Nevertheless, the monetary authorities were aware that the Spanish economy, off the gold standard, was an outlier in the international economy and made plans to put the peseta on gold both before and after 1914.Why Spain never adopted the gold standard is a complex issue, and our paper offers a possible answer by examining the behaviour of an issuing bank that refused to accept, or resisted, its role as a central bank. Our study also provides a basis for a comparison between the Bank of Spain, some of its features and policies, with other peripheral issuing institutions. Moreover, our paper encompasses both the pre-war and the post-war periods, which allows us to present both the similarities and the differences in the exchange and monetary policies of the Spanish authorities during the era of the classical gold standard and the years of the gold exchange standardGold standard, Monetary policy, Bank of Spain

Crisis bancarias en la historia de España. Del Antiguo Régimen a los orígenes del capitalismo moderno

In the last eight centuries there have been hundreds of banking crises throughout the entire planet. Spain has not been an exception and our history is plagued with numerous financial disasters in which the collapse of one institution has jeopardized the stability of the whole financial structure. This paper examines two of the most severe banking crises of Spain´s history. The failures of the so-called public banks in the commercial city of Seville at the end of the XVI century and theirs effects over the stability of the payment system. The Andalusian deposit banks played an essential role in the Atlantic trade and their debacle affected the entire economic and financial fabric of the region, and it had long lasting consequences. The 1866 crisis, one of the most severe of contemporary Spain, wiped out half of the banks and credit companies. The bankruptcies weakened the nascent financial system and its consequences were felt until the end of the century.banking history, banking crises, Spain

Competing bimetallic ratios: Amsterdam, London and bullion arbitrage in the 18th century

This article analyses the stability of bimetallism in the mid-18th century for the case of two large centres that had different legal ratios and only one international market ratio. A new theoretical framework is articulated for the situation of international independence to set legal bimetallic ratios by monetary authorities in different countries. Then, using new data handcollected from archival sources and relevant to the two main bullion markets in the 18th century, Amsterdam and London, this theoretical framework is utilised to identify the regimes that actually prevailed during that period, in which Amsterdam was effectively on the bimetallic standard while London was on the gold standard de facto

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms