Strategies to improve the explanatory power of a dynamic slope stability model by enhancing land cover parameterisation and model complexity

Despite the importance of land cover on landscape hydrology and slope stability, the representation of land cover dynamics in physically based models and their associated ecohydrological effects on slope stability is rather scarce. In this study, we assess the impact of different levels of complexity in land cover parameterisation on the explanatory power of a dynamic and process‐based spatial slope stability model. Firstly, we present available and collected data sets and account for the stepwise parameterisation of the model. Secondly, we present approaches to simulate land cover: 1) a grassland landscape without forest coverage; 2) spatially static forest conditions, in which we assume limited knowledge about forest composition; 3) more detailed information of forested areas based on the computation of leaf area development and the implementation of vegetation‐related processes; 4) similar to the third approach but with the additional consideration of the spatial expansion and vertical growth of vegetation. Lastly, the model is calibrated based on meteorological data sets and groundwater measurements. The model results are quantitatively validated for two landslide‐triggering events that occurred in Western Austria. Predictive performances are estimated using the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC). Our findings indicate that the performance of the slope stability model was strongly determined by model complexity and land cover parameterisation. The implementation of leaf area development and land cover dynamics further yield an acceptable predictive performance (AUC ~0.71‐0.75) and a better conservativeness of the predicted unstable areas (FoC ~0.71). The consideration of dynamic land cover expansion provided better performances than the solely consideration of leaf area development. The results of this study highlight that an increase of effort in the land cover parameterisation of a dynamic slope stability model can increase the explanatory power of the model.© 2018 The Author

Lake Koronia, Greece: Shift from Autotrophy to Heterotrophy with Cultural Eutrophication and Progressive Water-Level Reduction

Lake Koronia, a Ramsar site, is shallow, polymictic, hypertrophic and until recently was aerially the fourth largest lake in Greece. Although exceeding 5 m in the past, lake depth has declined progressively from 3.8 m in 1980 to \u3c 1 m in 1997, reducing surface area and water volume by 50% and 80%, respectively. Specific conductivity increased from 1300 μS cm-1 in 1977 to \u3e6000 μS cm-1 in 1991. Increased phosphate concentrations from the late 1970\u27s (8-45 μg L-1) to the late 1990\u27s (100-1000 μg L-1) document that the previously eutrophic system with a limited littoral zone switched to hypertrophy dominated by massive cyanobacteria blooms. Oxygen saturation of the water column increased progressively from about 80% in 1983 to full saturation about 1993, after which it decreased progressively to only 20% saturation in 1997. In spite of cyanobacteria dominance, community metabolism of the lake switched from progressively increasing autotrophy to rapidly advancing heterotrophy associated with progressive water-level reduction leading to fish extirpation in the lake