North-South Lending with Moral Hazard and Repudiation Risk

We show that the joint presence of moral hazard and repudiation risk generates an importnat interaction effect. In order to provide the proper incentives to borrowers, the optimal financial contract under moral hazard calls for all available resources to be paid to the lender in the event of a poor realization for output. Repudiation risk limits the size of this transfer, as the debtor has the option to default. This upper bound on the resource transfer exacerbates the moral hazard problem, reducing lending and the equilibrium level of investment and output.

The Irish Crisis

This paper has three goals. First, it seeks to explain the origins of the Irish crisis. Second, it provides an interim assessment of the Irish government?s management of the crisis. Third, it evaluates the lessons from Ireland for the macroeconomics of monetary unions.Irish crisis

Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis

The current crisis calls for a re-assessment of the optimal conduct of macroeconomic policies during non-crisis normal times. In particular, the risk and costs of crises can be mitigated by macroeconomic policies that lean against the wind in the face of cyclical, sectoral and external shocks. In this paper, I discuss the challenges involved in deploying fiscal policy in pursuit of a broad definition of macroeconomic stabilisation. The main policy conclusion is that pro-stabilisation fiscal policies are likely to be more effective if fiscal policy is determined under a formal fiscal framework that combines a set of fiscal rules and a substantive role for an independent fiscal policy council.fiscal council, fiscal rules, macroeconomic stabilisation

The Macroeconomics of International Financial Trade

A driving factor in any open-economy macroeconomics model is the degree of international financial integration. This suggests that understanding the sources of the recent explosive growth in cross-border asset trade and the impact of the upscaling in gross and net international investment positions on key open-economy macroeconomic variables such as the trade balance and the real exchange rate is critically important for policy analysis. Accordingly, the goal of this paper is to highlight some of the main results emerging from this fast-expanding research field.Law, EC, WTO, Subsidies, State Aid, Governance, Private Parties.

Global Bond Portfolios and EMU

We examine the bilateral composition of international bond portfolios for the euro area and the individual EMU member countries. We find considerable support for âeuro area bias”: EMU member countries disproportionately invest in one another relative to other country pairs. Another striking pattern is the positive connection between trade linkages and financial linkages in explaining asymmetries across EMU member countries in terms of their outward and inward bond investments vis-a-vis external counterparties. At the aggregate level, it is those countries physically closest to the euro area that are both the most important destinations and sources for external bond investment vis-a-vis the euro area. Our empirical results support the notion that financial regionalization is the leading force underlying financial globalization.

Global Financial Trade: How Far Have We Come?

In this paper, I review recent trends in global integration of financial systems and assess the implications for international macroeconomic adjustment. While recent growth in the scale of international balance sheets has been dramatic, product markets remain quite segmented. The mis-match between financial and real integration means that the role of exchange rates in international adjustment has taken on an even more crucial role Classification-financial globalization, net foreign assets, macroeconomic adjustment

The Macroeconomics of International Financial Trade

A driving factor in any open-economy macroeconomics model is the degree of international financial integration.  This suggests that understanding the sources of the recent explosive growth in cross-border asset trade and the impact of the upscaling in gross and net international investment positions on key open-economy macroeconomic variables such as the trade balance and the real exchange rate is critically important for policy analysis.  Accordingly, the goal of this paper is to highlight some of the main results emerging from this fast-expanding research field.

The International Community and the CIS-7

The international community has sought to assist the development efforts of the CIS-7 countries since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The international financial institutions have played a leading role in these efforts. Despite considerable engagement with the governments of these countries, overall progress has been disappointing. In this paper, we review the contribution of the international community to the transition challenge facing the CIS-7 countries and assess whether a change in strategy is warranted.CIS7, international financial institutions, policy reform, external debt