Structural Forecasts for the Danish Economy Using the Dynamic-AAGE Model

We describe how an applied dynamic general equilibrium model of the Danish economy has been developed to generate structural forecasts. The forecasts provide a microeconomic picture that is consistent with a macroeconomic scenario and the other inputs. We provide an overview of the inputs required to generate the forecasts and of the forecast methodology. Finally, we present aspects of the forecasting results.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

The MEarth project: searching for transiting habitable super-Earths around nearby M-dwarfs

Due to their small radii, M-dwarfs are very promising targets to search for transiting super-Earths, with a planet of 2 Earth radii orbiting an M5 dwarf in the habitable zone giving rise to a 0.5% photometric signal, with a period of two weeks. This can be detected from the ground using modest-aperture telescopes by targeting samples of nearby M-dwarfs. Such planets would be very amenable to follow-up studies due to the brightness of the parent stars, and the favourable planet-star flux ratio. MEarth is such a transit survey of ~2000 nearby M-dwarfs. Since the targets are distributed over the entire (Northern) sky, it is necessary to observe them individually, which will be done by using 8 independent 0.4m robotic telescopes, two of which have been in operation since December 2007 at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory (FLWO) located on Mount Hopkins, Arizona. We discuss the survey design and hardware, and report on the current status of the survey, and preliminary results obtained from the commissioning data.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. To appear in the Proceedings of the 253rd IAU Symposium: "Transiting Planets", May 2008, Cambridge, M

Capital Use Intensity and Productivity Biases

This is a substantially revised version of “Capital Use Intensity and Productivity Biases.” Andersen, Matt A.; Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G., St. Paul, MN: University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics; University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy (InSTePP), 2007. (Staff paper P07-06; InSTePP paper 07-02)U.S. agriculture, pro-cyclical productivity, capital utilization, primal productivity bias, Productivity Analysis, D24, C51, Q1, O4, O47,

Capital Service Flows: Concepts and Comparisons of Alternative Measures in U.S. Agriculture

Measures of capital services are used in studies of production and to inform policies related to growth and development. A variety of methods have been used to measure capital stocks and service flows. In this study we review methods commonly used to measure capital service flows, and outline important assumptions used in constructing such measures. We examine two recently constructed data sets that measure capital inputs in U.S. agriculture. Substantial differences in the measures appear to have been caused by the use of a fixed real interest rate versus a variable real market interest rate to calculate capital services.capital measures, U.S. agriculture, state-level panel data, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Productivity Analysis,

Capital Use Intensity and Productivity Biases

Measures of productivity growth are often pro-cyclical. This study focuses on measurement errors in capital inputs, associated with unobserved variations in capital utilization rates, as an explanation for the existence of pro-cyclical patterns in measures of agricultural productivity. Recently constructed national and state-specific indexes of inputs, outputs, and productivity in U.S. agriculture for 1949-2002 are used to estimate production functions in growth rate form that include proxy variables for changes in the utilization of durable inputs. The proxy variables include an index of farmers’ terms of trade and an index of local seasonal growing conditions. We find that utilization responses by farmers are significant and bias measures of productivity growth in a pro-cyclical pattern. We quantify the bias, adjust the measures of productivity for the estimated utilization responses, and compare the adjusted and conventional measures.Productivity Analysis,

Capital Services in U.S. Agriculture: Concepts, Comparisons, and the Treatment of Interest Rates

This is a substantially revised version of “Capital Service Flows: Concepts and Comparisons of Alternative Measures in U.S. Agriculture.” Andersen, Matt A.; Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G., St. Paul, MN: University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics; University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy (InSTePP), 2009. (Staff paper P09-8; InSTePP paper 09-03)Agricultural Finance,

Asset Utilization and Bias in Measures of U.S. Agricultural Productivity

A common observation is that measures of productivity growth are pro-cyclical, meaning they are higher (or grow faster) on average during periods of economic expansion than during periods of economic contraction. This study focuses on measurement errors related to capital inputs as an explanation for the existence of pro-cyclical patterns in measures of agricultural productivity. Calculating a time series of capital inputs is difficult and prone to errors. Myriad assumptions are required to construct a typical measure of the capital stock, and further, sometimes related, assumptions must be made about the utilization of the stock to derive a measure of capital service flows. We test the hypothesis that unmeasured changes in the utilization of capital can affect productivity measures. This is accomplished using recently constructed indexes of inputs, outputs, and productivity in U.S. agriculture for 1949-2002. We find that utilization responses by farmers are significant and bias measures of productivity growth in a pro-cyclical pattern. The bias is quantified and the measures of productivity are adjusted for the estimated utilization responses and compared to the original measures.Financial Economics,

Structural Changes in U.S. Agricultural Production and Productivity

Livestock Production/Industries,