Retrospective short-term forecasting experiment in Italy based on the occurrence of strong (fore) shocks

In a recent work, we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0 ≤ Mw < 5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by po- tentially destructive main shocks (Mw ≥ 5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space–time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter frac- tion in two ways (i) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 yr) and (ii) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70 per cent of all shocks with Mw ≥ 5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space–time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2 per cent. Considering the same space–time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40 per cent of the first main shocks with Mw ≥ 5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory

Sunflower protein concentrates and isolates prepared from oil cakes have high water solubility and antioxidant capacity

Increasing the applications of industrial by-products is of great interest. Therefore, in the present study, sunflower oil cake from a local oil manufacturing company was used to obtain soluble protein concentrates and isolates with different content of phenolic compounds. All the extraction procedures evaluated resulted in concentrates and isolates with water solubility higher than 75% but with different chemical composition, color and physicochemical properties (i.e. surface hydrophobicity, thermal stability, and polypeptide composition). Since no extraction process led to a complete extraction of phenolic compounds, all the products exhibited antioxidant activity, which depended on the concentration of such compounds. Phenolic compounds give a dark color to sunflower protein concentrates and isolates; nevertheless their final color tone was more dependent on the conditions used in the preparation process than on the amount of phenolic compounds in the product. The results demonstrate the value of sunflower industrial oil cake as a source of proteins with high water solubility, good physicochemical properties and antioxidant activity.Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Criotecnología de Alimento

Detección y caracterización molecular de Chlamydia psittaci y Chlamydia abortus en psitácidos mascotas en la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina

In order to determine the presence and genetic diversity of Chlamydia spp. in the north-eastern area of Buenos Aires province, Argentina, conjunctival, oropharyngeal, cloacal swab and tissues were collected from a total of 90 psittacine pet birds of different age and clinical manifestations. Through molecular methods, Chlamydiaceae was detected in 30% (27/90) of the samples, out of which 70.3% (19/27) were positive for Chlamydia psittaci and 14.9% (4/27) for Chlamydia abortus. Nine C. psittaci positive samples were genotyped by ompA gene sequences, 8 clustered within genotype A and 1 within genotype B. A significant association was observed between the presence of Chlamydia spp. and the manifestation of clinical signs compatible with chlamydiosis, as well as with the age of the birds (younger than one year old). This report contributes to the improvement of our understanding of chlamydial agents in our country.Con el objetivo de determinar la presencia de Chlamydia spp. en psitácidos del área noreste de la provincia de Buenos Aires y conocer su diversidad genética, se recolectaron y analizaron mediante métodos moleculares hisopados conjuntivales, orofaríngeos, cloacales y tejidos de un total de 90 psitácidos de diferentes edades y con diversas manifestaciones clínicas. El 30% (27/90) de las muestras procesadas fueron positivas para Chlamydiaceae; el 70,3% (19/27) de estas resultaron positivas para Chlamydia psittaci y el 14,9% (4/27) para Chlamydia abortus. Nueve muestras positivas para C. psittaci fueron genotipificadas por secuenciación del gen ompA: 8 correspondieron al genotipo A y una al genotipo B. Se observó una asociación significativa entre la presencia de Chlamydia spp. y la manifestación de signos clínicos compatibles con clamidiosis, como así también con la edad de las aves (menores de un ano). ˜ Este informe contribuye a mejorar nuestro conocimiento de los agentes clamidiales en nuestro país.Fil: Origlia, Javier Anibal. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Cátedra de Patología de Aves y Pilíferos; ArgentinaFil: Cadario, Maria E.. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación.Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas; ArgentinaFil: Frutos, Maria Celia. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Virología Dr. J. M. Vanella; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Lopez, Norberto F.. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Cátedra de Patología de Aves y Pilíferos; ArgentinaFil: Corva, Santiago. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias; ArgentinaFil: Unzaga, Maria Florencia. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Cátedra de Patología de Aves y Pilíferos; ArgentinaFil: Piscopo, Miguel Victor. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Cátedra de Patología de Aves y Pilíferos; ArgentinaFil: Cuffini, Cecilia Gabriela. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Virología Dr. J. M. Vanella; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Petruccelli, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Cátedra de Patología de Aves y Pilíferos; Argentin

Stochastic estimation of seroprevalence against <i>Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale</i> and avian pneumovirus among chickens in Argentina

The objective of this study was to estimate the true prevalence of seropositive individual chicken against Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale and avian pneumovirus in Argentina, using the Rogan-Gladen estimator in combination with Bayesian inference. Chicken runs existed in 21 and 20 different towns in Buenos Aires and Entre Rios Provinces in Argentina for Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale and avian pneumovirus seroprevalence, respectively, were studied. lndividual-chicken sera were analyzed using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The 719 (for testing Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale) and 933 (for testing avian pneumovirus) chickens were investigated. The overall true seroprevalence was 62.6% [95% Bayesian Credible lntelval (BCI): 37.6-84.5%] and 8.0% (95% BCI: 14.185%) against Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale and avian pneumovirus, respectively.Facultad de Ciencias Veterinaria

Quantifying the effects of nature-based solutions in reducing risks from hydrometeorological hazards: Examples from Europe

The combination of climate change and social and ecological factors will increase risks societies face from hydrometeorological hazards (HMH). Reducing these risks is typically achieved through the deployment of engineered (or grey) infrastructure but increasingly, nature-based so-lutions (NBS) are being considered. Most risk assessment frameworks do not allow capturing well the role NBS can play in addressing all components of risk, i.e., the hazard characteristics and the exposure and vulnerability of social-ecological systems. Recently, the Vulnerability and Risk as-sessment framework developed to allow the assessment of risks in the context of NBS implemen-tation (VR-NBS framework) was proposed. Here, we carry out the first implementation of this framework using five case study areas in Europe which are exposed to various HMH. Our results show that we can demonstrate the effect NBS have in terms of risk reduction and that this can be achieved by using a flexible library of indicators that allows to capture the specificities of each case study hazard, social and ecological circumstances. The approach appears to be more effec-tive for larger case study areas, but further testing is required in a broader variety of contexts

Analysis of the modes of energy consumption of the complex of an incoherent scattering of the institute of ionosphere of national academy of sciences and the ministry of education and science of Ukraine

У даній статті представлені результати аналізу режимів енергоспоживання комплексу некогерентного розсіяння Інституту іоносфери НАН і МОН України з метою вирішення проблеми підвищення енергоефективності науково-дослідного комплексу та створення енергоефективної системи електропостачання, яка забезпечить стійку роботу наукового обладнання для виконання дослідницьких програм НАН України. Описана система електроживлення комплексу та режими енергоспоживання комплексу. Описано пристрої радарної системи, а також найбільш потужні споживачі електроенергії, які споживають електроенергію на експериментальні і господарські потреби. Проаналізовано енергоспоживання комплексу некогерентного розсіяння за 2013 р. Отримано і представлено графіки середньої споживаної потужності (середньодобовий показник) і середньої споживаної потужності в режимі вимірювань. Описана доцільність проведення робіт з оптимізації енергопостачання науково-дослідного комплексу Інституту іоносфери. Запропоновано можливі заходи для зниження економічної вартості проведення експериментів з дослідження іоносфери науково-дослідного комплексу некогерентного розсіяння. Проведено аналіз робіт сучасних авторів з метою показати, що підвищення ефективності функціонування систем електропостачання є актуальною проблемою сучасних досліджень.This article presents the results of the analysis of the energy consumption modes of the incoherent scattering complex of the Institute of Ionosphere of the National Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine to solve the problem of increasing the energy efficiency of a research complex and creating an energy efficient power supply system that will ensure the sustainability of scientific equipment for research programs of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The system of power supply of the complex and modes of power consumption of the complex are described. The devices of the radar system are described, as well as the most powerful consumers of electricity, which consume electricity for experimental and economic needs. The energy consumption of the incoherent scattering complex in 2013 is analyzed. Graphs of the average power consumption (daily average) and average power consumption in measurement modes were obtained and presented. The feasibility of work to optimize the energy supply of the research complex of the institute of the ionosphere is described. Possible measures are proposed to reduce the economic cost of conducting experiments on the study of the ionosphere of an incoherent scattering research complex. The analysis of the works of modern authors i s carried out in order to show that increasing the efficiency of the power supply systems is an actual problem of modern research

Early adversity predicts adoptees’ enduring emotional and behavioral problems in childhood

Children adopted from the public care system are likely to experience a cluster of inter-related risk factors that place them on a trajectory of mental health problems that persist across the life course. However, the specific effects of putative risk factors on children’s mental health post-placement are not well understood. We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study of children placed for adoption between 2014 and 2015 (N = 96). Adoptive parents completed questionnaires at approximately 5-, 21-, 36-, and 48 months post-placement. We used time series analysis to examine the impact of pre-adoptive risk factors (adverse childhood experiences [ACEs], number of moves, days with birth parents and in care) on children’s internalizing and externalizing problems, and prosocial behaviour over four years post-placement. Adoptees’ internalizing and externalizing problems remained consistently high over the four-year study period but more ACEs predicted increases in internalizing and externalizing problems. Contrary to expectations, more pre-placement moves and time in care predicted fewer problems over time, but exploratory analyses of interactive effects revealed this was only the case in rare circumstances. We identify pre- and post-removal factors that may incur benefits or have a deleterious impact on adoptees’ outcomes in post-adoptive family life. Our findings provide knowledge for front-line professionals in the support of adoptive families and underscore the vital need for effective early intervention

Evidencia serológica de infección por metapneumovirus en aves comerciales de la provincia de Buenos Aires y Entre Ríos (Argentina)

A serological investigation was made in commercial flocks of Buenos Aires and Entre Rios provinces by ELISA technique. The serological evidence of metapneumovirus infection was determined by testing 933 serum samples from broilers flocks and broiler-breeders between March of 2007 and October of 2008. 169 of these samples were positives. The result of this study was analyzed by statistics methods. The conclusion shows a better possibility to obtain positive results in broiler-breeders than in broilers flocks. This is the first report of avian metapneumovirus serological evidence in the Argentinian Republic.Se realizo un relevamiento serológico en aves comerciales de las provincias de Buenos Aires y Entre Ríos mediante la técnica de ELISA. La evidencia serológica de la infección con metapneumovirus se determino procesando 933 sueros provenientes de pollos parrilleros y gallinas reproductoras, desde el mes de marzo del año 2007 al mes de octubre del año 2008, de los cuales 169 fueron positivos. Estos resultados fueron analizados mediante métodos estadísticos arribando a la conclusión de que existe mayor probabilidad de obtener aves seropositivas en la categoría de reproductores que en la de pollos parrilleros. Así mismo se demuestra por primera vez la evidencia de serología positiva contra metapneumovirus de la República Argentina