Spatial Dependence in House Prices: Evidence from China's Interurban Housing Market

"Spatial thinking" is increasingly popular in housing market studies and spatial dependence across properties has been widely investigated in the intra-city housing market. The contribution of this paper is to study the spatial dependence and spillover effect of house prices from an interurban perspective, referring to the spatial interaction across local housing markets. The extensive literature study concludes that following behavior, migration and equity transfer and spatial arbitrage of capital are the main behavioral reasons for interurban spatial interaction. Using a cross-sectional data set in eastern China, our empirical results from both parametric and nonparametric approaches provide strong evidence of spatial interaction in the interurban housing market. The parametric results suggest that the spatial lag model (SAR) is the best model specification to describe the interurban house price process, indicating an endogenous interaction pattern. Ignoring such interaction effect in the house price model will produce biased coefficients estimators and misleading interpretation. In SAR model, Spillover effects of explanatory variables caused by spatial interaction are calculated by partial derivative interpretation approach and are demonstrated to have the magnitude as much as half of their direct effects. Moreover, the comparison between different spatial weighted matrices reveals that the spatial interaction depends not only on distances, but also on the economic situation of each jurisdiction. Meanwhile, nonparametric approach draws a flexible relationship between spatial dependence and geographical distances. Using spline correlogram, we find monotonically declined spatial autocorrelation of house prices and explanatory variables within larger distances, whereas the significant spatial autocorrelation of OLS residuals can only be observed at short distance (60 Km). The spillover effect, being obtained from spatial covariance decomposition, is highly significant and declines within the radius of 250 Km. All the nonparametric results imply that though the house price determinants can satisfyingly account for the interurban house prices, the importance of spillover effect cannot be neglected within certain distances. That is the neighbor's housing market situation is quite useful in predicting the house price of a particular city. This study provides a good insight into explaining why the house prices in some cities always run above the level indicated by fundamentals, and highlights the importance of cooperation between local governments in making the housing policy

Guiding young children’s internet use at home

Using an online questionnaire among 785 parents (children 0-7 years) in the Netherlands we investigated a) whether parents experience problems when guiding children’s digital media usage, b) whether they feel competent in dealing with these problems, c) whether they need parenting support, and d) how these problems, competences and need for support are related to the characteristics of the parents, the family and the child. The analyses reveal that the parents’ experiences of problems is associated with negative views on media effects, the presence of older siblings living at home and occur especially when their child is active on social media. Parents’ feelings of competence are enhanced by positive views on media effects, older children being present in the home, and the involvement of the young child in educational games and media skill level. Parents feel less confident if their child is active on social media. Support is primarily dependent on the level of problems at hand. Moreover, professionals are consulted especially when parents feel less competent, their child is active on social media and no older siblings are present at home. Parents ask family or friends for advice when they have a negative view on media effects

Consumption-as-usual instead of ceteris paribus assumption for demand: Integration of potential rebound effects into LCA

Background, aims, and scope: Life cycle assessment (LCA) according to ISO 14040 standard (ISO-LCA) is applied to assess the environmental impact per functional unit of new or modified products. However, new or modified products can also induce demand changes—so-called rebound effects. If overall environmental impact is of interest, there is a need to assess the potential magnitude of such rebound effects and to allow recommendations on how to mitigate these effects. To do so, this study proposes to complement the constant demand assumption (implicitly assumed by the ISO-LCA), commonly known as the ceteris paribus assumption, with a consumption-as-usual assumption allowing a systematic stepwise inclusion of rebound effects. Materials and methods: We base our results on a formal description of household consumption. To indicate the relevance of the proposed integration of rebound effects, different comparative LCAs are reviewed and the concept is applied to mobility as illustrative examples. Results: Based on a description of household demand and consumption feedback loops, we propose the consumption-as-usual concept, which in contrast to the constant demand assumption assumes that (1) the use of household resources for consumption does not change and (2) preferences remain the same. Household resources for example are purchasing power (we assume that households do not work less), time, and living space. We outline how this concept allows integrating potential rebound effects into ISO-LCA by considering three different cases of reallocating freed household resources. To illustrate the use of the consumption-as-usual concept, we draw implications for different comparative LCAs from the literature and illustrate cases with income and time rebound for different personal travel modes. Discussion: The consumption-as-usual concept is applicable to a broad range of product modifications and allows an important complementation of the LCA regarding rebound effects. For products with various changes in the need for household resources, the assessment becomes however a challenging task. The limits of the consumption-as-usual concept are mainly given by its two underlying assumptions. Therefore, new or modified products with the potential to change consumer preferences or even the amount of household resources used for consumption go beyond this concept. Conclusions: The integration of rebound effects is feasible for many comparative LCAs. It helps in increasing the reliability of the assessment of overall environmental impact reduction through new or modified products. In addition, a basis is provided with which to mitigate rebound effects and give appropriate recommendations to product users. Recommendations and perspectives: Potential rebound effects should be included in LCA in order to guide consumers and policy towards sustainable consumption. We recommend the consumption-as-usual concept for this purpose. To predict rebound effects under consumption as usual instead of outlining potential amplitudes, further research on household preferences is needed and an optimisation model should be applied for household consumption. However, even if data are available for such a prediction, the assessment of potential rebound effects is still recommended in order to recognise dangers and opportunities in consumption change

Interurban house price gradient

This paper applies a general spatial equilibrium model to investigate the effect that distance within urban hierarchy can have on interurban house prices. Our spatial model predicts a negative price gradient towards higher-tier cities, which can be decomposed into a ’productivity component’ and an ’amenity component’, representing respectively the effect of wage differences and households’ valuation of access to higher-order services. The theoretical findings are tested on data for the hierarchical urban system of the Pan-Yangtze River Delta in China. Both central and subcentral cities are shown to impose statistically significant distance penalties on interurban house prices, even after we control for amenities and characteristics that are generally considered to be the determinants of house prices. According to the empirical decomposition, the negative house price gradients are largely accounted for by the productivity component

Traffic noise in LCA: Part 1: state-of-science and requirement profile for consistent context-sensitive integration of traffic noise in LCA

Background, aim, and scope: According to some recent studies, noise from road transport is estimated to cause human health effects of the same order of magnitude as the sum of all other emissions from the transport life cycle. Thus, ISO 14′040 implies that traffic noise effects should be considered in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies where transports might play an important role. So far, five methods for the inclusion of noise in LCA have been proposed. However, at present, none of them is implemented in any of the major life cycle inventory (LCI) databases and commonly used in LCA studies. The goal of the present paper is to define a requirement profile for a method to include traffic noise in LCA and to assess the compliance of the five existing methods with this profile. It concludes by identifying necessary cornerstones for a model for noise effects of generic road transports that meets all requirements. Materials and methods: Requirements for a methodological framework for inclusion of traffic noise effects in LCA are derived from an analysis of how transports are included in 66 case studies published in International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment in 2006 and 2007, in the sustainability reports of ten Swiss companies, as well as on the basis of theoretical considerations. Then, the general compliance of the five existing methods for inclusion of noise in LCA with the postulated requirement profile is assessed. Results: Six general requirements for a methodological framework for inclusion of traffic noise effects in LCA were identified. A method needs to be applicable for (1) both generic and specific transports, (2) different modes of transport, (3) different vehicles within one mode of transport, (4) transports in different geographic contexts, (5) different temporal contexts, and (6) last but not least, the method needs to be compatible with the ISO standards on LCA. One of the reviewed methods is not specific for transports at all and two are only applicable for specific transports. The other two allow generic and specific road transports to be assessed. The methods either deal with road traffic noise only or they compare noise from different sources, ignoring the fact that not only physical sound levels but also the source of sound determines the effect. Three methods only differentiate between vehicle classes (lorries and passenger cars) while one method differentiates between specific vehicles of the same class. Four of the methods consider the geographic context and three of them differentiate between day- and nighttime traffic. Discussion: None of the existing methods for traffic noise integration in LCA complies with the proposed requirement profile. They either lack the genericness for a wide application or they lack the specificity needed for differentiations in LCA studies. There is no method available that allows for appropriate inter- or intramodal comparison of traffic noise effects. Thus, the benefit of the existing methods is limited. They can, in the better cases, only demonstrate the relative importance of road or rail traffic noise effects compared to the nonnoise-related effects of transportation. Conclusions: Currently, none of the major LCI databases includes traffic noise indicators. Thus, noise effects are usually not considered in LCA studies. We introduce a requirement profile for methods that allow the inclusion of noise in LCI. Due to the estimated significance of noise in transport LCA, this inclusion will change the overall results of many LCA studies. None of the existing methods fully complies with the requirement profile. Two of the methods can be modified and extended for inclusion in generic LCI databases. A third model allows for intermodal comparison. From an LCA perspective, all methods include weaknesses and need to be amended in order to make them widely usable. Recommendations and perspectives: In part 2 of this paper, an in-depth analysis of the promising methods is provided, improvement potential is evaluated, and a new context-sensitive framework for the consistent LCI modeling of noise emissions from road transportation is presented. Appropriate methods for modeling rail and air traffic noise will have to be developed in the future in order to arrive at a methodological framework fully compliant with the requirement profile. Furthermore, future research is needed to identify appropriate methods for impact assessmen

Traffic noise in LCA: Part 2: Analysis of existing methods and proposition of a new framework for consistent, context-sensitive LCI modeling of road transport noise emission

Background, aim, and scope: An inclusion of traffic noise effects could change considerably the overall results of many life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. However, at present, noise effects are usually not considered in LCA studies, mainly because the existing methods for their inclusion do not fulfill the requirement profile. Two methods proposed so far seem suitable for inclusion in generic life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, and a third allows for inter-modal comparison. The aim of this investigation is an in-depth analysis of the existing methods and the proposition of a framework for modeling road transport noise emissions in LCI in accordance to the requirement profile postulated in part 1. Materials and methods: This paper analyzes three methods for inclusion of traffic noise in LCA (Danish LCA guide method, Swiss EPA method, and Swiss FEDRO method) in detail. The additional basis for the analysis are the Swiss road traffic emission model "SonRoad,” traffic volume measurements at 444 sites in the Swiss road network, vehicle-type-specific noise measurements in free floating traffic situations in Germany, and noise emission measurements from different tires. Results: The Danish LCA guide method includes a major flaw that cannot be corrected within the methodological concept. It applies a dose-response function valid for average noise levels of a traffic situation to maximum noise levels of single vehicles. The Swiss FEDRO method is based on an inappropriate assumption since it bases distinctions of specific vehicles on data that do not allow for such a distinction. Noise emissions cannot be distinguished by the make and type of a vehicle since other factors, especially the tires, are dominant for noise emissions. Several problems are also identified in the Swiss EPA method, but they are not of a fundamental nature. Thus, we are able to base a new framework for vehicle and context-sensitive inclusion of road traffic noise emissions in LCI on the Swiss EPA method. We show how specific vehicle classes can be distinguished, how the influence of different tires can be dealt with, and what temporal and spatial aspects of traffic need to be distinguished. Discussion: While the Danish LCA guide method and the Swiss FEDRO method are not suitable for our purpose, the Swiss EPA method can be used as a basis to better meet the requirement profile identified in Part 1 of this paper. The proposed method for consistent, context-sensitive modeling of noise emissions from road transports in LCI meets all the requirements except that it is restricted to road transport. Conclusions: We show limitations of the existing methods and approaches for improving them. Our proposed model allows for a more specific consideration of the various vehicles and contexts in terms of space and time and thus in terms of speed and traffic volume. This can be used on one hand for a consistent, context sensitive assessment of different vehicles in different traffic situations. On the other hand, it also allows for an inclusion of noise in LCA of transports on which only very little is known. This new LCI model meets five of the six requirements postulated in Part 1. Recommendations and perspectives: In a next step, additional noise emissions due to additional traffic needs to be calculated based on the proposed framework and national or regional traffic models. Furthermore, the consideration of noise from different traffic modes should be addressed. The approach presented needs to be extended in order to make it also applicable for rail and air traffic noise, and the methods need to be implemented in LCI databases to make them easily available to practitioners. Furthermore, suitable impact assessment methods need to be identified or developed. They could base on the proposals made in the Swiss EPA and in the Swiss FEDRO method

Scenario Modelling in Prospective LCA of Transport Systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis (11 pp)

Background: Tools and methods able to cope with uncertainties are essential for improving the credibility of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as a decision support tool. Previous approaches have focussed predominately upon data quality. Objective: and Scope. An epistemological approach is presented conceptualising uncertainties in a comparative, prospective, attributional LCA. This is achieved by considering a set of cornerstone scenarios representing future developments of an entire Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) product system. We illustrate the method using a comparison of future transport systems. Method: Scenario modelling is organized by means of Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA), which provides a set of possible and consistent scenarios of those unit processes of an LCI product system which are time dependent and of environmental importance. Scenarios are combinations of levels of socio-economic or technological impact variables. Two core elements of FSA are applied in LCI scenario modelling. So-called impact matrix analysis is applied to determine the relationship between unit process specific socio-economic variables and technology variables. Consistency Analysis is employed to integrate unit process scenarios, based on pair-wise ratings of the consistency of the levels of socio-economic impact variables of all unit processes. Two software applications are employed which are available from the authors. Results and Discussion: The study reveals that each possible level or development of a technology variable is best conceived of as the impact of a specific socio-economic (sub-) scenario. This allows for linking possible future technology options within the socio-economic context of the future development of various background processes. In an illustrative case study, the climate change scores and nitrogen dioxide scores per seat kilometre for six technology options of regional rail transport are compared. Similar scores are calculated for a future bus alternative and an average Swiss car. The scenarios are deliberately chosen to maximise diversity. That is, they represent the entire range of future possible developments. Reference data and the unit process structure are taken from the Swiss LCA database 'ecoinvent 2000'. The results reveal that rail transport remains the best option for future regional transport in Switzerland. In all four assessed scenarios, four technology options of future rail transport perform considerably better than regional bus transport and car transport. Conclusions: and Recommendations. The case study demonstrates the general feasibility of the developed approach for attributional prospective LCA. It allows for a focussed and in-depth analysis of the future development of each single unit process, while still accounting for the requirements of the final scenario integration. Due to its high transparency, the procedure supports the validation of LCI results. Furthermore, it is well-suited for incorporation into participatory methods so as to increase their credibility. Outlook: and Future Work. Thus far, the proposed approach is only applied on a vehicle level not taking into account alterations in demand and use of different transport modes. Future projects will enhance the approach by tackling uncertainties in technology assessment of future transport systems. For instance, environmental interventions involving future maglev technology will be assessed so as to account for induced traffic generated by the introduction of a new transport syste

Hairpin-induced tRNA-mediated (HITME) recombination in HIV-1

Recombination due to template switching during reverse transcription is a major source of genetic variability in retroviruses. In the present study we forced a recombination event in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) by electroporation of T cells with DNA from a molecular HIV-1 clone that has a 300 bp long hairpin structure in the Nef gene (HIV-lhNef). HIV-lhNef does not replicate, but replication-competent escape variants emerged in four independent cultures. The major part of the hairpin was deleted in all escape viruses. In three cases, the hairpin deletion was linked to patch insertion of tRNA(asp), tRNA(glu) or tRNA(trp) sequences. The tRNAs were inserted in the viral genome in the antisense orientation, indicating that tRNA-mediated recombination occurred during minus-strand DNA synthesis. We here propose a mechanistic model for this hairpin-induced tRNA-mediated (HITME) recombination. The transient role of the cellular tRNA molecule as enhancer of retroviral recombination is illustrated by the eventual removal of inserted tRNA sequences by a subsequent recombination/deletion event

Trans-inhibition of HIV-1 by a long hairpin RNA expressed within the viral genome

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can be inhibited by means of RNA silencing or interference (RNAi) using synthetic short interfering RNAs (siRNAs) or gene constructs encoding short hairpin RNAs (shRNAs) or long hairpin RNAs (lhRNAs). The use of siRNA and shRNA as antiviral therapeutic is limited because of the emergence of viral escape mutants. This problem is theoretically prevented by intracellular expression of lhRNAs generating multiple siRNAs that target the virus simultaneously, thus reducing the chance of viral escape. However, gene constructs encoding lhRNA molecules face problems with delivery to the right cells in an infected individual. In order to solve this problem, we constructed an HIV-1 variant with a 300 bp long hairpin structure in the 3' part of the genome corresponding to the Nef gene (HIV-lhNef). RESULTS: Intriguingly, HIV-lhNef potently inhibited wild-type HIV-1 production in trans. However, HIV-lhNef demonstrated a severe production and replication defect, which we were able to solve by selecting spontaneous virus variants with truncated hairpin structures. Although these escape variants lost the ability to trans-inhibit HIV-1, they effectively outgrew the wild-type virus in competition experiments in SupT1 cells. CONCLUSION: Expression of the lhNef hairpin within the HIV-1 genome results in potent trans-inhibition of wild-type HIV-1. Although the mechanism of trans-inhibition is currently unknown, it remains of interest to study the molecular details because the observed effect is extremely potent. This may have implications for the development of virus strains to be used as live-attenuated virus vaccines

Conduct Problem Trajectories Between Age 4 and 17 and Their Association with Behavioral Adjustment in Emerging Adulthood

Individual heterogeneity exists in the onset and development of conduct problems, but theoretical claims about predictors and prognosis are often not consistent with the empirical findings. This study examined shape and outcomes of conduct problem trajectories in a Belgian population-based sample (N = 682; 49.5 % boys). Mothers reported on children’s conduct problems across six waves (age 4–17) and emerging adults reported on their behavioral adjustment (age 17–20). Applying mixture modeling, we found four gender-invariant trajectories (labeled life-course-persistent, adolescence-onset, childhood-limited, and low). The life-course-persistent group was least favorably adjusted, but the adolescence-onset group was similarly maladjusted in externalizing problems and may be less normative (15 % of the sample) than previously believed. The childhood-limited group was at heightened risk for specifically internalizing problems, being more worrisome than its label suggests. Interventions should not only be aimed at early detection of conduct problems, but also at adolescents to avoid future maladjustment