Earthquakes and economic growth

This study explores the economic consequences of earthquakes. In particular, it is investigated how exposure to earthquakes affects economic growth both across and within countries. The key result of the empirical analysis is that while there are no observable effects at the country level, earthquake exposure significantly decreases 5-year economic growth at the local level. Areas at lower stages of economic development suffer harder in terms of economic growth than richer areas. In addition, the analysis proposes an explanation to the paradox that there is a pronounced negative effect at the regional level while no effect appears at the country level. To this end, the effects of earthquake exposure is investigated not only for the impact zones, but also for areas with an average distance to the epicenter of around 100 km. The results indicate that the decrease in production in one part of a country is (partially) off-set by an increase in production in the surrounding regions

Eff ects of the introduction of new vaccines in Guinea-Bissau on vaccine coverage, vaccine timeliness, and child survival:an observational study

Background In 2008, the GAVI Alliance funded the introduction of new vaccines (including pentavalent diphtheriatetanus- pertussis [DTP] plus hepatitis B and Haemophilus infl uenzae type b antigens) in Guinea-Bissau. The introduction was accompanied by increased vaccination outreach services and a more restrictive wastage policy, including only vaccinating children younger than 12 months. We assessed coverage of all vaccines in the Expanded Program on Immunizations before and after the new vaccines’ introduction, and the implications on child survival. Methods This observational cohort study used data from the Bandim Health Project, which has monitored vaccination status and mortality in randomly selected village clusters in Guinea-Bissau since 1990. We assessed the change in vaccination coverage using cohort data from children born in 2007 and 2009; analysed the proportion of children who received measles vaccine after 12 months of age using data from 1999–2006; and compared child mortality after age 12 months in children who had received measles vaccine and those who had not using data from 1999 to 2006. Findings The proportion of children who were fully vaccinated by 12 months of age was 53% (468 of 878) in the 2007 cohort and 53% (467 of 879) in the 2009 cohort (relative risk [RR] 1·00, 95% CI 0·89–1·11). Coverage of DTP-3 and pentavalent-3 increased from 73% (644 of 878) in 2007 to 81% (712 of 879) in 2009 (RR 1·10, 95% CI 1·04 –1·17); by contrast, the coverage of measles vaccination declined from 71% (620 of 878) to 66% (577 of 879; RR 0·93, 0·85–1·01). The eff ect of the changes was signifi cantly diff erent for DTP-3 coverage compared with measles vaccine coverage (p=0·002). After 12 months of age, the adjusted mortality rate ratio was 0·71 (95% CI 0·56–0·90) for children who had received measles vaccine compared with those who had not (0·59 [0·43–0·80] for girls and 0·87 [0·62–1·23] for boys). Interpretation The introduction of the new vaccination programme in 2008 was associated with increased coverage of DTP, but decreased coverage of measles vaccine. In 1999–2006, child mortality was higher in children who had not received measles vaccine than in those who had

The effect of neonatal vitamin A supplementation on growth in the first year of life among low-birth-weight infants in Guinea-Bissau:two by two factorial randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) may amplify the effect of vaccines. We therefore investigated if neonatal VAS given with and without Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine to low-birth-weight (LBW) neonates had an effect on growth in the first year of life. We hypothesised that VAS would be particularly beneficial when provided with BCG. METHODS: We conducted a randomised two-by-two factorial trial in Guinea-Bissau; 1,717 LBW neonates were randomly allocated to VAS or placebo at birth as well as early or the usual postponed BCG vaccination. Anthropometric measurements were obtained at 2, 6, and 12 months after inclusion. RESULTS: Overall there was no effect of neonatal VAS on growth in the first year of life. By 2 months, VAS tended to have a beneficial effect on weight and head circumference when given with BCG but not when given without BCG (interaction: weight-for-age p = 0.07 and head circumference-for-age: p = 0.06). By 6 months, there was a beneficial effect of VAS on head circumference and weight among children who had not received DTP vaccine 2 months after inclusion (weight: 0.18 (0.00; 0.36) and head circumference 0.27 (0.06; 0.48)), but no beneficial effect among those who had received DTP. CONCLUSION: The results support other trials indicating that neonatal VAS does not have consistent effects on childhood growth and if anything the effects seem to be temporary. They also show that the effect may differ by vaccination status, being beneficial when given with BCG at birth and when DTP is delayed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00168610) (nct00168610

Does oral polio vaccine have non-specific effects on all-cause mortality? Natural experiments within a randomised controlled trial of early measles vaccine.

BACKGROUND: BCG and measles vaccine (MV) may have beneficial non-specific effects (NSEs). If an unplanned intervention with a vaccine (a natural experiment) modifies the estimated effect in a randomised controlled trial (RCT), this suggests NSEs. We used this approach to test NSEs of triple oral polio vaccine (OPV). METHODS: During an RCT of 2 doses of MV at 4.5 and 9 months versus 1 dose of MV at 9 months of age, we experienced 2 natural experiments with OPV. We assessed whether these OPV experiments modified the effect of 2-dose MV in the MV trial. SETTING: MV RCT conducted in urban Guinea-Bissau 2003-2009. INTERVENTIONS: Natural experiments with OPV due to missing vaccine and the implementation of OPV campaigns. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Changes in the mortality rate ratio (MRR) for 2-dose MV versus 1-dose MV. RESULTS: First, the MRR (2-dose/1-dose MV) overall was 0.70 (0.52 to 0.94), but the MRR was 1.04 (0.53 to 2.04) when OPV at birth (OPV0) was not given, suggesting that early priming with OPV was important for the effect of 2-dose MV. The effect of OPV0 depended on age of administration; the MRR (2-dose/1-dose MV) was 0.45 (0.29 to 0.71) for children receiving OPV0 in the first week of life, but 3.63 (0.87 to 15.2) for those receiving OPV0 after the first month of life (p=0.007, test of no interaction). Second, campaign-OPV may have reduced the difference between the randomisation groups since the MRR (2-dose/1-dose MV) was 0.60 (0.42 to 0.85) for children who had not received campaign-OPV before RCT-enrolment versus 0.72 (0.23 to 2.31) and 1.42 (0.70 to 2.90) for children who had received 1 or 2 doses of campaign-OPV-before-enrolment, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bissau had no polio infection during this trial, so OPV0 and campaign-OPV may have NSEs since they modified the effect of 2-dose MV in an RCT. Different interventions may interact to a much larger effect than usually assumed

Sex-Differential Effect on Infant Mortality of Oral Polio Vaccine Administered with BCG at Birth in Guinea-Bissau. A Natural Experiment

The policy to provide oral polio vaccine (OPV) at birth was introduced in low-income countries to increase coverage. The effect of OPV at birth on overall child mortality was never studied. During a trial of vitamin A supplementation (VAS) at birth in Guinea-Bissau, OPV was not available during several periods. We took advantage of this "natural experiment" to test the effect on mortality of receiving OPV at birth.Between 2002 and 2004, the VAS trial randomised normal-birth-weight infants to 50,000 IU VAS or placebo administered with BCG. Provision of OPV at birth was not part of the trial, but we noted whether the infants received OPV or not. OPV was missing during several periods in 2004. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compute mortality rate ratios (MRR) of children who had received or not received OPV at birth.A total of 962 (22.1%) of the 4345 enrolled children did not receive OPV at birth; 179 children died within the first year of life. Missing OPV at birth was associated with a tendency for decreased mortality (adjusted MRR = 0.69 (95% CI = 0.46-1.03)), the effect being similar among recipients of VAS and placebo. There was a highly significant interaction between OPV at birth and sex (p = 0.006). Not receiving OPV at birth was associated with a weak tendency for increased mortality in girls (1.14 (0.70-1.89)) but significantly decreased mortality in boys (0.35 (0.18-0.71)).In our study OPV at birth had a sex-differential effect on mortality. Poliovirus is almost eradicated and OPV at birth contributes little to herd immunity. A randomised study of the effect of OPV at birth on overall mortality in both sexes is warranted

The Effect of 50 000 IU Vitamin A with BCG Vaccine at Birth on Growth in the First Year of Life

Vitamin A supplements may interact with diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine causing increased female mortality. In a randomised trial of neonatal vitamin A supplementation (VAS), we examined growth during the first year of life in 808 children, pursuing the hypothesis that a negative interaction between VAS and DTP in girls would be reflected in growth. Length and weight were measured at 6 weekly visits and WHO-growth-reference z-scores derived. Neonatal VAS had no effect on anthropometric measures at 12 months, but may interact sex differentially with routine vaccines. While BCG was the most recent vaccine, neonatal VAS benefitted growth (difference in weight-for-length z-score (dWFL: 0.31(95% CI: 0.03–0.59)). While DTP was the most recent vaccine, VAS tended to affect growth adversely in girls (dWFL = −0.21 (−0.48–0.06)). After measles vaccine (MV) there was no overall effect of neonatal VAS. The VAS effect differed significantly between the BCG and DTP windows (P = 0.03), and the difference was borderline significant between the DTP and MV windows for girls (P = 0.09)

The effects of vitamin A supplementation with measles vaccine on leucocyte counts and in vitro cytokine production

Host-parasite interactio

Interaction between neonatal vitamin A supplementation and timing of measles vaccination: a retrospective analysis of three randomized trials from Guinea-Bissau.

BACKGROUND: In Guinea-Bissau we conducted three trials of neonatal vitamin A supplementation (NVAS) from 2002 to 2008. None of the trials found a beneficial effect on mortality. From 2003 to 2007, an early measles vaccine (MV) trial was ongoing, randomizing children 1:2 to early MV at 4.5 months or no early MV, in addition to the usual MV at 9 months. We have previously found interactions between vitamin A and vaccines. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether there were interactions between NVAS and early MV. DESIGN: We compared the mortality of NVAS and placebo recipients: first, from 4.5 to 8 months for children randomized to early MV or no early MV; and second, from 9 to 17 months in children who had received two MV or one MV. Mortality rates (MR) were compared in Cox models producing mortality rate ratios (MRR). RESULTS: A total of 5141 children were randomized to NVAS (N=3015) or placebo (N=2126) and were later randomized to early MV (N=1700) or no early MV (N=3441). Between 4.5 and 8 months, NVAS compared with placebo was associated with higher mortality in early MV recipients (MR=30 versus MR=0, p=0.01), but not in children who did not receive early MV (p for interaction between NVAS and early MV=0.03). From 9 to 17 months NVAS was not associated with mortality. Overall, from 4.5 to 17 months NVAS was associated with increased mortality in early MV recipients (Mortality rate ratio=5.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.62, 17.99)). CONCLUSIONS: These observations indicate that NVAS may interact with vaccines given several months later. This may have implications for the planning of future child intervention programs