Do Addicts Behave Rationally?

Addicts, Rational Behavior

Ergebnisse der 23. Jahrestagung der Internationalen Ostsee-Fischereikommission (IBSFC) vom 08.-12.09.1997 und Ausblick

Die Tagung fand in Warschau, dem Sitz des Sekretariats der IBSFC, statt. Arbeitsebenen der Tagung sind Plenarsitzungen und Sitzungen der beiden Ständigen Komitees „Regulierungsmaßnahmen“ und „Finanzen“. Die Plenarsitzungen und Sitzungen des Ständigen Komitees für Regulierungsmaßnahmen mit insgesamt 34 Tagungsordnungspunkten waren geprägt von der Analyse der nationalen Fischereien im Basiszeitraum, d.h. von der Ausnutzung der nationalen Quoten für 1996 und z.T. 1997, den Beratungen zum Fischereimanagement für 1998, aber auch vom Vorsorgeansatz im Fischereimanagement und den Auswirkungen der sogenannten Rio-Konferenz (UN-Konferenz über Umwelt und Entwicklung, Rio de Janeiro 1992) für den Ostseeraum

A multi-block infrastructure for three-dimensional time-dependent numerical relativity

We describe a generic infrastructure for time evolution simulations in numerical relativity using multiple grid patches. After a motivation of this approach, we discuss the relative advantages of global and patch-local tensor bases. We describe both our multi-patch infrastructure and our time evolution scheme, and comment on adaptive time integrators and parallelisation. We also describe various patch system topologies that provide spherical outer and/or multiple inner boundaries. We employ penalty inter-patch boundary conditions, and we demonstrate the stability and accuracy of our three-dimensional implementation. We solve both a scalar wave equation on a stationary rotating black hole background and the full Einstein equations. For the scalar wave equation, we compare the effects of global and patch-local tensor bases, different finite differencing operators, and the effect of artificial dissipation onto stability and accuracy. We show that multi-patch systems can directly compete with the so-called fixed mesh refinement approach; however, one can also combine both. For the Einstein equations, we show that using multiple grid patches with penalty boundary conditions leads to a robustly stable system. We also show long-term stable and accurate evolutions of a one-dimensional non-linear gauge wave. Finally, we evolve weak gravitational waves in three dimensions and extract accurate waveforms, taking advantage of the spherical shape of our grid lines.Comment: 18 pages. Some clarifications added, figure layout improve

The BACOMA cod-end. History and recent developments in BACOMA cod-end regulations and a proposal for abetter specification of the BACOMA cod-end for Baltic Sea cod fishery

To improve the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea, a number of regulations have recently been established by the International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission (IBSFC) and the European Commission. According to these, fishermen are obliged to use nets with escape windows (BACOMA nets) with a mesh size of the escape window of 120 mm until end of September 2003. These nets however, retain only fish much larger than the legal minimum landing size would al-low. Due to the present stock structure only few of such large fish are however existent. As a consequence fishermen use a legal alternative net. This is a conventional trawl with a cod-end of 130 mm diamond-shaped meshes (IBSFC-rules of 1st April 2002), to be increased to 140 mm on 1st September 2003, according to the mentioned IBSFC-rule. Due legal alterations of the net by the fishermen (e.g. use of extra stiff net material) these nets have acquired extremely low selective properties, i. e. they catch very small fish and produce great amounts of discards. Due to the increase of the minimum landing size from 35 to 38 cm for cod in the Baltic, the amount of discards has even increased since the beginning of 2003. Experiments have now been carried out with the BACOMAnet on German and Swedish commercial and research vessels since arguments were brought forward that the BACOMA net was not yet sufficiently tested on commercial vessels. The results of all experiments conducted so far, are compiled and evaluated here. As a result of the Swedish, Danish and German initiative and research the European Commission reacted upon this in June 2003 and rejected the increase of the diamond-meshed non-BACOMA net from 130 mm to 140mm in September 2003. To protect the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea more effectively the use of traditional diamond meshed cod-ends with-out escape window are prohibited in community waters without derogation, becoming effective 1st of September 2003. To enable more effective and simplified control of the bottom trawl fishery in the Baltic Sea the principle of a ”One-Net-Rule“ is enforced. This is going to be the BACOMA net, with the meshes of the escape window being 110 mm for the time being. The description of the BACOMA net as given in the IBSFC-rules no.10 (revision of the 28th session, Berlin 2002) concentrates on the cod-end and the escape window but only to a less extent on the design and mesh-composition of the remaining parts of the net, such as belly and funnel and many details. Thus, the present description is not complete and leaves, according to fishermen, ample opportunity for manipulation. An initiative has been started in Germany with joint effort from scientists and the fishery to better describe the entire net and to produce a proposal for a more comprehensive description, leaving less space for manipulation. A proposal in this direction is given here and shall be seen as a starting point for a discussion and development towards an internationally uniform net, which is agreed amongst the fishery, scientists and politicians. The Baltic Sea fishery is invited to comment on this proposal, and recommendations for further improvement and specifications are welcomed. Once the design is agreed by the Baltic Fishermen Association, it shall be proposed to the IBSFC and European Commission via the Baltic Fishermen Association

Institutional change in search of the market: The case of Slovenia

Six main characteristics of an economic order are discussed and empirically evaluated for the case of Slovenia. All of them pertain to the institutional setting ab urbe condita; they comprise the legal and jurisdictional situation, the role of private property, the institutionalised strive at competition among firms and individuals, the liberty of markets, the solution of the big assignment problem, and the approach to foreign-trade relations. All six aspects impinge upon the conditions which confront investors in material and in human capital in Slovenia. The analysis shows that Slovenia has had, for three years now, by and large the same problems that other countries in transition had. For example, it still has, among others, tight regulations regarding foreign exchange transactions, and a highly socialist property system burdened with too complicated procedures of privatisation. The authors conclude that in Slovenia, as in the other formerly socialist economies, transformation should first and foremost aim at being coherent. Secondly, first things should come first; the first thing would be to privatise. With a proper approach of institutional reforms there should be no barrier to achieving two-digit rates of real growth, just like Germany had after transition into a market economy in 1949.

Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves

The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model consists of a wage and a price Phillips curves, a dynamic IS curve as well as a dynamic employment adjustment equation and a Taylor-rule-type interest rate law of motion. Through instrumental variables GMM system estimation with aggregate time series data for the U.S. and the euro area economies, the authors obtain structural parameter estimates which support the specification of their theoretical model and show the importance of the inflationary climate, as well as of the Blanchard-Katz error correction terms, and indirectly of income distribution, in the dynamics of wage and price inflation in the U.S. and the euro area economies.AS-AD disequilibrium, wage and price Phillips curves, real wage adjustment

COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data

Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: for immediate planning; for balancing the life years saved against the life years lost due to the consequences of management; and for evaluating the ethical issues associated with the tacit willingness to pay substantially more for life years lost to the epidemic, than for those to other diseases. Against this background Verity et al. (2020, Lancet Infections Diseases) have rapidly assembled case data and used statistical modelling to infer the IFR for COVID-19. We have attempted an in-depth statistical review of their approach, to identify to what extent the data are sufficiently informative about the IFR to play a greater role than the modelling assumptions, and have tried to identify those assumptions that appear to play a key role. Given the difficulties with other data sources, we provide a crude alternative analysis based on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship data and case data from China, and argue that, given the data problems, modelling of clinical data to obtain the IFR can only be a stop-gap measure. What is needed is near direct measurement of epidemic size by PCR and/or antibody testing of random samples of the at risk population.Comment: Version accepted by the Lancet Infectious Diseases. See previous version for less terse presentatio