Cost-Reducing and Demand-Creating R&D With Spillovers

This paper analyzes R&D policies when the returns to cost-reducing and demand-creating R&D are imperfectly appropriable and market structure is endogenous. Previous characterizations of appropriability are generalized to permit the possibility that own and rival R&D are imperfect substitutes. We also describe how. equilibrium expenditures on process and product R&D, as well as equilibrium market structure, depend on technological opportunities and spillovers. In contrast to previous work, diminished appropriability does not necessarily reduce R&D expenditures. For example, under some conditions, an increase in the extent of process (product) spillovers will lead to an increase in product (process) R&D. We estimate several variants of the model using manufacturing line of business data and data from a survey of R&D executives.

Demand and Pricing in Electricity Markets: Evidence from San Diego During California's Energy Crisis

We study the electricity consumption of San Diego-area households following a series of price changes and related events during California's energy crisis in 2000-01. The analysis uses a five-year panel of disaggregate billing and weather data for a random sample of 70,000 households. In contrast to prior work, these data allow us to proceed without behavioral assumptions regarding a consumer's knowledge of energy prices. We find that after a rapid price increase in summer 2000, consumption fell substantially over about 60 days, averaging 12% per household; consumption then rebounded to within 3% of pre-crisis levels after a price cap was imposed. Under the price cap public appeals for energy conservation and a remunerative voluntary conservation program had significant, but transitory, effects. Further, a large share of households reduced electricity consumption substantially (over 10%) but saved small monetary amounts ($10 or less). Overall, the results indicate consumers may be far more responsive to pecuniary and non-pecuniary incentives for altering their energy use than is commonly believed.

Evaluating Welfare with Nonlinear Prices

This paper examines how to evaluate consumer welfare when consumers face nonlinear prices. This problem arises in many settings, such as devising optimal pricing strategies for firms, assessing how price discrimination affects consumers, and evaluating the efficiency costs of many transfer programs in the public sector. We extend prior methods to accommodate a broad range of modern pricing practices, including menus of pricing plans. This analysis yields a simpler and more general technique for evaluating exact consumer surplus changes in settings where consumers face nonlinear prices. We illustrate our method using recent changes in mobile phone service plans.

Household Electricity Demand, Revisited

Recent efforts to restructure and partially deregulate electricity markets have renewed interest in understanding how consumers respond to price changes. Several interrelated problems complicate demand analyses of these markets, including nonlinear pricing, heterogeneity in households' price sensitivities, and data aggregation. This paper formulates a model of household electricity demand that addresses these difficulties. We estimate the model using data for a representative sample of California households, and summarize how electricity demand elasticities vary in that state. We then use the model to analyze the electricity consumption and expenditure effects of recent tariff structure changes in California.

Transaction Costs in Dealer Markets: Evidence From The London Stock Exchange

This paper describes regularities in the intraday spreads and prices quoted by dealers on the London Stock Exchange. It develops a measure of spread-related transaction costs, one that recognizes dealers' willingness to price trades within their quoted spreads. This measure of transaction costs shows that trading costs are systematically related to a trade's size, characteristics of the trading counterparties, and security characteristics. Customers pay the full spread on small trades while medium to large trades receive more favorable execution. Market makers only discount very large customer trades while dealers regularly discount medium to large trades. Inter-dealer trades generally receive favorable execution, and discounts increase in size. Market makers do not discount trades with each other over the phone, but do discount when trading anonymously using inter-dealer-brokers. Quoted and touch spreads are falling in the number of market makers. The rate of decline is interpreted as reflecting economies of scale in market making.

Do Entry Conditions Vary across Markets?

macroeconomics, entry conditions

Economic and Financial Determinants of Oil and Gas Exploration Activity

This paper studies the investment activities of 44 independent oil and gas firms from 1978 to 1986. It develops a dynamic model of oil and gas exploration and development. The model predicts less of a decline in exploration activity than actually occurred in 1985-86. I consider the extent to which financial factors may have affected firms' investment plans during the 1985-86 deflation. There is some evidence that credit contracts in this industry did place important limitations on firm's abilities to respond to the energy price deflation. These constraints were imposed because lenders could not separately distinguish between unfavorable industry developments and poor individual firm performance.