Seasonality, mediation and comparison (SMAC) methods to identify influences on lung function decline.

This study develops a comprehensive method to assess seasonal influences on a longitudinal marker and compare estimates between cohorts. The method extends existing approaches by (i) combining a sine-cosine model of seasonality with a specialized covariance function for modeling longitudinal correlation; (ii) performing mediation analysis on a seasonality model. An example dataset and R code are provided. The bundle of methods is referred to as seasonality, mediation and comparison (SMAC). The case study described utilizes lung function as the marker observed on a cystic fibrosis cohort but SMAC can be used to evaluate other markers and in other disease contexts. Key aspects of customization are as follows.�This study introduces a novel seasonality model to fit trajectories of lung function decline and demonstrates how to compare this model to a conventional model in this context.�Steps required for mediation analyses in the seasonality model are shown.�The necessary calculations to compare seasonality models between cohorts, based on estimation coefficients, are derived in the study

Built environment factors predictive of early rapid lung function decline in cystic fibrosis

Background: The extent to which environmental exposures and community characteristics of the built environment collectively predict rapid lung function decline, during adolescence and early adulthood in cystic fibrosis (CF), has not been examined. Objective: To identify built environment characteristics predictive of rapid CF lung function decline. Methods: We performed a retrospective, single-center, longitudinal cohort study (n = 173 individuals with CF aged 6–20 years, 2012–2017). We used a stochastic model to predict lung function, measured as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) of % predicted. Traditional demographic/clinical characteristics were evaluated as predictors. Built environmental predictors included exposure to elemental carbon attributable to traffic sources (ECAT), neighborhood material deprivation (poverty, education, housing, and healthcare access), greenspace near the home, and residential drivetime to the CF center. Measurements and Main Results: The final model, which included ECAT, material deprivation index, and greenspace, alongside traditional demographic/clinical predictors, significantly improved fit and prediction, compared with only demographic/clinical predictors (Likelihood Ratio Test statistic: 26.78, p < 0.0001; the difference in Akaike Information Criterion: 15). An increase of 0.1 μg/m3 of ECAT was associated with 0.104% predicted/yr (95% confidence interval: 0.024, 0.183) more rapid decline. Although not statistically significant, material deprivation was similarly associated (0.1-unit increase corresponded to additional decline of 0.103% predicted/year [−0.113, 0.319]). High-risk regional areas of rapid decline and age-related heterogeneity were identified from prediction mapping. Conclusion: Traffic-related air pollution exposure is an important predictor of rapid pulmonary decline that, coupled with community-level material deprivation and routinely collected demographic/clinical characteristics, enhance CF prognostication and enable personalized environmental health interventions

Lung function and secondhand smoke exposure among children with cystic fibrosis:A Bayesian meta-analysis

Background: Secondhand smoke exposure, an important environmental health factor in cystic fibrosis (CF), remains uniquely challenging to children with CF as they strive to maintain pulmonary function during early stages of growth and throughout adolescence. Despite various epidemiologic studies among CF populations, little has been done to coalesce estimates of the association between secondhand smoke exposure and lung function decline. Methods: A systematic review was performed using PRISMA guidelines. A Bayesian random-effects model was employed to estimate the association between secondhand smoke exposure and change in lung function (measured as FEV1% predicted). Results: Quantitative synthesis of study estimates indicated that second-hand smoke exposure corresponded to a significant drop in FEV1 (estimated decrease: -5.11% predicted; 95% CI: -7.20, -3.47). The estimate of between-study heterogeneity was 1.32% predicted (95% CI: 0.05, 4.26). There was moderate heterogeneity between the 6 analyzed studies that met review criteria (degree of heterogeneity: I2=61.9% [95% CI: 7.3–84.4%] and p = 0.022 from the frequentist method.) Conclusions: Our results quantify the impact at the pediatric population level and corroborate the assertion that secondhand smoke exposure negatively affects pulmonary function in children with CF. Findings highlight challenges and opportunities for future environmental health interventions in pediatric CF care.</p

Seasonal variation of lung function in cystic fibrosis: Longitudinal modeling to compare a Midwest US cohort to international populations

Characterizing seasonal trend in lung function in individuals with chronic lung disease may lead to timelier treatment of acute respiratory symptoms and more precise distinction between seasonal exposures and variability. Limited research has been conducted to assess localized seasonal fluctuation in lung function decline in individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) in context with routinely collected demographic and clinical data. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of 253 individuals aged 6–22 years with CF receiving care at a pediatric Midwestern US CF center with median (range) of follow-up time of 4.7 (0–9.95) years, implementing two distinct models to estimate seasonality effects. The outcome, lung function, was measured as percent-predicted of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1). Both models showed that older age, being male, using Medicaid insurance and having Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection corresponded to accelerated FEV1 decline. A sine wave model for seasonality had better fit to the data, compared to a linear model with categories for seasonality. Compared to international cohorts, seasonal fluctuations occurred earlier and with greater volatility, even after adjustment for ambient temperature. Average lung function peaked in February and dipped in August, and FEV1 fluctuation was 0.81% predicted (95% CI: 0.52 to 1.1). Adjusting for temperature shifted the peak and dip to March and September, respectively, and decreased FEV1 fluctuation to 0.45% predicted (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.82). Understanding localized seasonal variation and its impact on lung function may allow researchers to perform precision public health for lung diseases and disorders at the point-of-care level

Social-environmental phenotypes of rapid cystic fibrosis lung disease progression in adolescents and young adults living in the United States

Background: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a genetic disease but is greatly impacted by non-genetic (social/environmental and stochastic) influences. Some people with CF experience rapid decline, a precipitous drop in lung function relative to patient- and/or center-level norms. Those who experience rapid decline in early adulthood, compared to adolescence, typically exhibit less severe clinical disease but greater loss of lung function. The extent to which timing and degree of rapid decline are informed by social and environmental determinants of health (geomarkers) is unknown. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study was performed (24,228 patients, aged 6–21 years) using the U.S. CF Foundation Patient Registry. Geomarkers at the ZIP Code Tabulation Area level measured air pollution/respiratory hazards, greenspace, crime, and socioeconomic deprivation. A composite score quantifying social-environmental adversity was created and used in covariate-adjusted functional principal component analysis, which was applied to cluster longitudinal lung function trajectories. Results: Social-environmental phenotyping yielded three primary phenotypes that corresponded to early, middle, and late timing of peak decline in lung function over age. Geographic differences were related to distinct cultural and socioeconomic regions. Extent of peak decline, estimated as forced expiratory volume in 1 s of % predicted/year, ranged from 2.8 to 4.1 % predicted/year depending on social-environmental adversity. Middle decliners with increased social-environmental adversity experienced rapid decline 14.2 months earlier than their counterparts with lower social-environmental adversity, while timing was similar within other phenotypes. Early and middle decliners experienced mortality peaks during early adolescence and adulthood, respectively. Conclusion: While early decliners had the most severe CF lung disease, middle and late decliners lost more lung function. Higher social-environmental adversity associated with increased risk of rapid decline and mortality during young adulthood among middle decliners. This sub-phenotype may benefit from enhanced lung-function monitoring and personalized secondary environmental health interventions to mitigate chemical and non-chemical stressors

Built environment factors predictive of early rapid lung function decline in cystic fibrosis

Background: The extent to which environmental exposures and community characteristics of the built environment collectively predict rapid lung function decline, during adolescence and early adulthood in cystic fibrosis (CF), has not been examined. Objective: To identify built environment characteristics predictive of rapid CF lung function decline. Methods: We performed a retrospective, single-center, longitudinal cohort study (n = 173 individuals with CF aged 6–20 years, 2012–2017). We used a stochastic model to predict lung function, measured as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) of % predicted. Traditional demographic/clinical characteristics were evaluated as predictors. Built environmental predictors included exposure to elemental carbon attributable to traffic sources (ECAT), neighborhood material deprivation (poverty, education, housing, and healthcare access), greenspace near the home, and residential drivetime to the CF center. Measurements and Main Results: The final model, which included ECAT, material deprivation index, and greenspace, alongside traditional demographic/clinical predictors, significantly improved fit and prediction, compared with only demographic/clinical predictors (Likelihood Ratio Test statistic: 26.78, p < 0.0001; the difference in Akaike Information Criterion: 15). An increase of 0.1 μg/m3 of ECAT was associated with 0.104% predicted/yr (95% confidence interval: 0.024, 0.183) more rapid decline. Although not statistically significant, material deprivation was similarly associated (0.1-unit increase corresponded to additional decline of 0.103% predicted/year [−0.113, 0.319]). High-risk regional areas of rapid decline and age-related heterogeneity were identified from prediction mapping. Conclusion: Traffic-related air pollution exposure is an important predictor of rapid pulmonary decline that, coupled with community-level material deprivation and routinely collected demographic/clinical characteristics, enhance CF prognostication and enable personalized environmental health interventions