COVID-19 Infection Risk amongst 14,104 Vaccinated Care Home Residents: A national observational longitudinal cohort study in Wales, United Kingdom, December 2020 to March 2021

Backgroundvaccinations for COVID-19 have been prioritised for older people living in care homes. However, vaccination trials included limited numbers of older people.Aimwe aimed to study infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 for older care home residents following vaccination and identify factors associated with increased risk of infection.Study Design and Settingwe conducted an observational data-linkage study including 14,104 vaccinated older care home residents in Wales (UK) using anonymised electronic health records and administrative data.Methodswe used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination, after landmark times of either 7 or 21 days post-vaccination. We adjusted HRs for age, sex, frailty, prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccination type.Resultswe observed a small proportion of care home residents with positive polymerase chain reaction (tests following vaccination 1.05% (N = 148), with 90% of infections occurring within 28 days. For the 7-day landmark analysis we found a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for vaccinated individuals who had a previous infection; HR (95% confidence interval) 0.54 (0.30, 0.95). For the 21-day landmark analysis, we observed high HRs for individuals with low and intermediate frailty compared with those without; 4.59 (1.23, 17.12) and 4.85 (1.68, 14.04), respectively.Conclusionsincreased risk of infection after 21 days was associated with frailty. We found most infections occurred within 28 days of vaccination, suggesting extra precautions to reduce transmission risk should be taken in this time frame

Immunisation status of children receiving care and support in Wales: a national data linkage study

Background: In the UK, a robust childhood immunisation programme ensures children are offered protection against serious infections; identifying inequalities in vaccination coverage is essential. This is one of the first data linkage studies to examine coverage of primary, as well as pre-school booster and second dose of MMR vaccines, in children receiving support from social care services across Wales. Methods: By accessing records held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, vaccination status of children receiving social care and support between April 2016 and March 2021 (n = 24,540) was ascertained. This was achieved through linkage of the Children Receiving Care and Support (CRCS) Census and National Community Child Health Database which holds vaccination records for all children in Wales registered for NHS care. This sample was split into three groups – those children who had never been recorded on the Child Protection Register (CPR) or as ‘Looked After’ but in CRCS (n = 12,480), children ever on the CPR (n = 6,225) and those ever recorded as ‘Looked After’ but who were never on the CPR (n = 5,840). The comparison group of children and young people (CYP) never receiving welfare support consisted of 624,905 children. Results: Children receiving care or support were more likely to be up-to-date with all six vaccines (no recorded vaccines: 0.6–6.3%) compared to children in the comparison group (no recorded vaccines: 3–10.3%). However, of those who were vaccinated, they were less likely to be vaccinated in a timely manner; both early (5.2% vs. 22.2%; margin of error [ME] = 0.52, 95% CI [confidence interval] = −0.18 – −0.17, p < 0.001) and delayed vaccinations were more common (62.7% vs. 71.3%; ME = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.08–0.09, p < 0.001). Validation of the CRCS immunisation flag showed moderate levels of accuracy. Around 70% of immunisation flags were correct across all three groups. Discussion: Findings suggest a positive association between receiving services under a care and support plan and being up-to-date with immunisations; children receiving support under a care and support plan were more likely to have experienced early or late vaccinations, demonstrating that there is still more inter-disciplinary co-ordination and planning needed to improve these outcomes. Thus, identifying inequalities in vaccination coverage is essential to target interventions and to prioritise geographic areas for catch-up

Summer music and arts festivals as hot spots for measles transmission: experience from England and Wales, June to October 2016.

We report 52 cases of measles linked to music and arts festivals in England and Wales, between mid-June and mid-October 2016. Nearly half were aged 15 to 19 years. Several individuals who acquired measles at one festival subsequently attended another festival while infectious, resulting in multiple interlinked outbreaks. Transmission within festivals resulted in a geographical spread of cases nationally as well as internationally, which presents particular challenges for measles control

Immunisation status of children receiving care and support in Wales: a national data linkage study

BackgroundIn the UK, a robust childhood immunisation programme ensures children are offered protection against serious infections; identifying inequalities in vaccination coverage is essential. This is one of the first data linkage studies to examine coverage of primary, as well as pre-school booster and second dose of MMR vaccines, in children receiving support from social care services across Wales.MethodsBy accessing records held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, vaccination status of children receiving social care and support between April 2016 and March 2021 (n = 24,540) was ascertained. This was achieved through linkage of the Children Receiving Care and Support (CRCS) Census and National Community Child Health Database which holds vaccination records for all children in Wales registered for NHS care. This sample was split into three groups – those children who had never been recorded on the Child Protection Register (CPR) or as ‘Looked After’ but in CRCS (n = 12,480), children ever on the CPR (n = 6,225) and those ever recorded as ‘Looked After’ but who were never on the CPR (n = 5,840). The comparison group of children and young people (CYP) never receiving welfare support consisted of 624,905 children.ResultsChildren receiving care or support were more likely to be up-to-date with all six vaccines (no recorded vaccines: 0.6–6.3%) compared to children in the comparison group (no recorded vaccines: 3–10.3%). However, of those who were vaccinated, they were less likely to be vaccinated in a timely manner; both early (5.2% vs. 22.2%; margin of error [ME] = 0.52, 95% CI [confidence interval] = −0.18 – −0.17, p &lt; 0.001) and delayed vaccinations were more common (62.7% vs. 71.3%; ME = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.08–0.09, p &lt; 0.001). Validation of the CRCS immunisation flag showed moderate levels of accuracy. Around 70% of immunisation flags were correct across all three groups.DiscussionFindings suggest a positive association between receiving services under a care and support plan and being up-to-date with immunisations; children receiving support under a care and support plan were more likely to have experienced early or late vaccinations, demonstrating that there is still more inter-disciplinary co-ordination and planning needed to improve these outcomes. Thus, identifying inequalities in vaccination coverage is essential to target interventions and to prioritise geographic areas for catch-up

Maternal SARS-CoV-2 sero-surveillance using newborn dried blood spot (DBS) screening specimens highlights extent of low vaccine uptake in pregnant women

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake in pregnant women is believed to be low and lags behind the general population contributing to increased hospital admissions, and poor maternal and fetal outcomes. However, there is a paucity of information on the SARS-CoV-2 serostatus of pregnant women to help inform policy planning and assess impact of interventions to improve vaccine uptake in this at-risk group. We analyzed 8,683 residual, anonymized newborn screening dried bloodspot (DBS) specimens during a 15-month period (October 2020 to December 2021) in Wales (UK) for SARS-CoV-2 IgG-antibodies. We compared newborn DBS antibody-positive rates to the percentage number of pregnant women vaccinated and the percentage number of antibody-positive adults. In December 2021, 47.8% of women in Wales had received two doses of the vaccine by their delivery date; however, only 41.1% of DBS specimens had high antibody concentrations. Results indicate that a proportion of pregnant women remain at higher-risk of COVID complications, particularly given the reduction in antibody neutralization of Omicron versus the Delta variant. Our study demonstrates the utility of newborn screening DBS specimens to monitor SARS-CoV-2 serostatus in pregnant women representing maternal vaccination and natural infection in almost real-time, defining the immunity gap and impact of any interventions

Measles outbreak linked to European B3 outbreaks, Wales, United Kingdom, 2017

The United Kingdom achieved interrupted endemic measles transmission for 36 months in 2016. Despite this, ongoing challenges from sporadic measles cases typically imported from abroad remain. We summarise a B3 measles genotype outbreak in south-east Wales occurring between May and September 2017, linked with other European outbreaks, and lessons learnt. Seventeen confirmed cases and one probable case occurred principally in education and healthcare-settings. Six confirmed cases attended healthcare settings when infectious, without being isolated

Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in West Africa

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25C,the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29C and 34C, about 3C and 7C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 298C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 308C. Small temperature increases (less than 28C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 338C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions

Investigating the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines : protocol for an observational study using linked UK national data

Funding: This research is part of the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation (HDRUK2020.146). EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_PC_19075) and supported by the Scottish Government. This work is supported by BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004). BREATHE is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. ConCOV is supported by the Medical Research Council (MR/V028367/1); Health Data Research UK (HDR-9006) which receives its funding from the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation (BHF) and the Wellcome Trust; and Administrative Data Research UK which is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant ES/S007393/1).Introduction : The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in December 2019, has caused millions of deaths and severe illness worldwide. Numerous vaccines are currently under development of which a few have now been authorised for population-level administration by several countries. As of 20 September 2021, over 48 million people have received their first vaccine dose and over 44 million people have received their second vaccine dose across the UK. We aim to assess the uptake rates, effectiveness, and safety of all currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the UK. Methods and analysis : We will use prospective cohort study designs to assess vaccine uptake, effectiveness and safety against clinical outcomes and deaths. Test-negative case–control study design will be used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Self-controlled case series and retrospective cohort study designs will be carried out to assess vaccine safety against mild-to-moderate and severe adverse events, respectively. Individual-level pseudonymised data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory test and death records will be linked and analysed in secure research environments in each UK nation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models will be carried out to estimate vaccine uptake levels in relation to various population characteristics. VE estimates against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection will be generated using a generalised additive logistic model. Time-dependent Cox models will be used to estimate the VE against clinical outcomes and deaths. The safety of the vaccines will be assessed using logistic regression models with an offset for the length of the risk period. Where possible, data will be meta-analysed across the UK nations. Ethics and dissemination : We obtained approvals from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02 (12/SS/0201), the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage independent Information Governance Review Panel project number 0911. Concerning English data, University of Oxford is compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation and the National Health Service (NHS) Digital Data Security and Protection Policy. This is an approved study (Integrated Research Application ID 301740, Health Research Authority (HRA) Research Ethics Committee 21/HRA/2786). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub meets NHS Digital’s Data Security and Protection Toolkit requirements. In Northern Ireland, the project was approved by the Honest Broker Governance Board, project number 0064. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

COVID-19 vaccine uptake, effectiveness, and waning in 82,959 health care workers: A national prospective cohort study in Wales.

BACKGROUND: While population estimates suggest high vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection, the protection for health care workers, who are at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, is less understood. METHODS: We conducted a national cohort study of health care workers in Wales (UK) from 7 December 2020 to 30 September 2021. We examined uptake of any COVID-19 vaccine, and the effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) against polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We used linked and routinely collected national-scale data within the SAIL Databank. Data were available on 82,959 health care workers in Wales, with exposure extending to 26 weeks after second doses. RESULTS: Overall vaccine uptake was high (90%), with most health care workers receiving theBNT162b2 vaccine (79%). Vaccine uptake differed by age, staff role, socioeconomic status; those aged 50-59 and 60+ years old were 1.6 times more likely to get vaccinated than those aged 16-29. Medical and dental staff, and Allied Health Practitioners were 1.5 and 1.1 times more likely to get vaccinated, compared to nursing and midwifery staff. The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine was found to be strong and consistent across the characteristics considered; 52% three to six weeks after first dose, 86% from two weeks after second dose, though this declined to 53% from 22 weeks after the second dose. CONCLUSIONS: With some variation in rate of uptake, those who were vaccinated had a reduced risk of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those unvaccinated. Second dose has provided stronger protection for longer than first dose but our study is consistent with waning from seven weeks onwards

Trends in invasive bacterial diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: analyses of prospective surveillance data from 30 countries and territories in the IRIS Consortium.

BACKGROUND The Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Consortium was established to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus agalactiae. We aimed to analyse the incidence and distribution of these diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 2 years preceding the pandemic. METHODS For this prospective analysis, laboratories in 30 countries and territories representing five continents submitted surveillance data from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 2, 2022, to private projects within databases in PubMLST. The impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the overall number of cases was analysed, and changes in disease distributions by patient age and serotype or group were examined. Interrupted time-series analyses were done to quantify the impact of pandemic response measures and their relaxation on disease rates, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate effect sizes and forecast counterfactual trends by hemisphere. FINDINGS Overall, 116 841 cases were analysed: 76 481 in 2018-19, before the pandemic, and 40 360 in 2020-21, during the pandemic. During the pandemic there was a significant reduction in the risk of disease caused by S pneumoniae (risk ratio 0·47; 95% CI 0·40-0·55), H influenzae (0·51; 0·40-0·66) and N meningitidis (0·26; 0·21-0·31), while no significant changes were observed for S agalactiae (1·02; 0·75-1·40), which is not transmitted via the respiratory route. No major changes in the distribution of cases were observed when stratified by patient age or serotype or group. An estimated 36 289 (95% prediction interval 17 145-55 434) cases of invasive bacterial disease were averted during the first 2 years of the pandemic among IRIS-participating countries and territories. INTERPRETATION COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a sustained decrease in the incidence of invasive disease caused by S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis during the first 2 years of the pandemic, but cases began to increase in some countries towards the end of 2021 as pandemic restrictions were lifted. These IRIS data provide a better understanding of microbial transmission, will inform vaccine development and implementation, and can contribute to health-care service planning and provision of policies. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Torsten Söderberg Foundation, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Health, Robert Koch Institute, Pfizer, Merck, and the Greek National Public Health Organization