Transition from the old to the new viral normality: Where are we?

Background: The seasonality of respiratory diseases caused by viruses has been altered by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. After a period of almost no bronchiolitis and influenza diagnoses, these seasonal infectious diseases are progressively recovering their pre-pandemic dynamics. We aim to describe how this process is taking place in Catalonia. Material and method: We used primary-care syndromic diagnostic data of bronchiolitis, influenza, and COVID-19 in Catalonia (Spain), which are publicly available through the new Information System for the Surveillance of Infections in Catalonia (SIVIC). We carried out a descriptive study of their dynamics from 2014 to 2023, focusing on the changes induced by the pandemic. Results: The results show that the old viral normality was significantly disrupted by SARS-CoV-2 and that we are experiencing a transition to a new viral normality where this novel infectious agent could play a role, but its precise dynamics remains unclear. Conclusions: We are slowly moving towards regular influenza and bronchiolitis seasonality. The role of SARS- CoV-2 in the viral landscape in Catalonia remains uncertain, but its effects on other pathogens are relevant and warrant further investigation.Peer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i BenestarPostprint (published version

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and SARS-CoV-2 variants: a two-year ambispective multicentric cohort study in Catalonia, Spain

Coronavirus infections; Epidemiology; Severity of illness indexInfecciones por Coronavirus; Epidemiología; Índice de la gravedad de la enfermedadInfeccions per coronavirus; Epidemiologia; Índex de la gravetat de la malaltiaMultisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare but severe disease temporarily related to SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory findings of all MIS-C cases diagnosed in children 39 °C (81.6%); nearly 40% had an abnormal echocardiography, and 7% had coronary aneurysm. Clinical manifestations and laboratory data were not different throughout the variant periods (p > 0.05). Conclusion: The RR between MIS-C cases and SARS-CoV-2 infections was significantly lower in the Omicron period for all age groups, including those not vaccinated, suggesting that the variant could be the main factor for this shift in the MISC trend. Regardless of variant type, the patients had similar phenotypes and severity throughout the pandemic. What is Known: • Before our study, only two publications investigated the incidence of MIS-C regarding SARS-CoV-2 variants in Europe, one from Southeast England and another from Denmark. What is New: • To our knowledge, this is the first study investigating MIS-C incidence in Southern Europe, with the ability to recruit all MIS-C cases in a determined area and analyze the rate ratio for MIS-C among SARS-CoV-2 infections throughout variant periods. • We found a lower rate ratio of MISC/infections with SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron period for all age groups, including those not eligible for vaccination, suggesting that the variant could be the main factor for this shift in the MISC trend.This study has received funding for the data analysis from the “Fundació la Marató TV3” with file number 202134–30-31

Analysis of the epidemiological dynamic of monkeypox from 15th May to 31st August 2022

We show that in all countries with more than 1000 monkeypox cases at the end of August 2022, the evolution of the total number of cases is described by the Gompertz growth model. Although the data collection has many temporal irregularities, we have been able to measure the order of magnitude of the number of new cases per day in each country until the end of the study period in August 2022, as well as to analyse its dynamics. In this way, it is easy to check whether the epidemiological situation is improving. If no new epidemic outbreaks appear, as of early September, the model predicts a rapid improvement in the epidemiological situation.Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i BenestarPostprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as predictions for the next days. We also include a brief analysis of the global situation, as well as the highlights for European countries. On Fridays, we prepare a full analysis of a specific topic. As for the predictions, we employ a validated empirical model based on the Gompertz growth. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 7 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. Only reliable predictions that accomplish with the quality criteria are included. Methodological details are given in the Methods section, at the end of the report.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as predictions for the next days. We also include a brief analysis of the global situation, as well as the highlights for European countries. On Fridays, we prepare a full analysis of a specific topic. As for the predictions, we employ a validated empirical model based on the Gompertz growth. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 7 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. Only reliable predictions that accomplish with the quality criteria are included. Methodological details are given in the Methods section, at the end of the report.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as predictions for the next days. We also include a brief analysis of the global situation, as well as the highlights for European countries. On Fridays, we prepare a full analysis of a specific topic. As for the predictions, we employ a validated empirical model based on the Gompertz growth. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 7 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. Only reliable predictions that accomplish with the quality criteria are included. Methodological details are given in the Methods section, at the end of the report.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as predictions for the next days. We also include a brief analysis of the global situation, as well as the highlights for European countries. On Fridays, we prepare a full analysis of a specific topic. As for the predictions, we employ a validated empirical model based on the Gompertz growth. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 7 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. Only reliable predictions that accomplish with the quality criteria are included. Methodological details are given in the Methods section, at the end of the report.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as predictions for the next days. We also include a brief analysis of the global situation, as well as the highlights for European countries. On Fridays, we prepare a full analysis of a specific topic. As for the predictions, we employ a validated empirical model based on the Gompertz growth. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 7 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. Only reliable predictions that accomplish with the quality criteria are included. Methodological details are given in the Methods section, at the end of the report.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as predictions for the next days. We also include a brief analysis of the global situation, as well as the highlights for European countries. On Fridays, we prepare a full analysis of a specific topic. As for the predictions, we employ a validated empirical model based on the Gompertz growth. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 7 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. Only reliable predictions that accomplish with the quality criteria are included. Methodological details are given in the Methods section, at the end of the report.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-10 days later. The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data: a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the control. K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages because growth is still exponential. We show an individual report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for different countries and regions. We are adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold, and is of 5 days for those that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or more. For short-term predictions, we assign higher weight to last 3 points in the fittings, so that changes are rapidly captured by the model. The whole methodology employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document. In addition to the individual reports, the reader will find an initial dashboard with a brief analysis of the situation in EU-EFTA-UK countries, some summary figures and tables as well as long-term predictions for some of them, when possible. These long-term predictions are evaluated without different weights to datapoints. We also discuss a specific issue every day.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Peer ReviewedPostprin